Jim Harbaugh faces a must-win as Michigan takes on Penn State in Happy Valley, but do the Wolverines stand a chance vs. the undefeated Nittany Lions?
After improving to 5-1 on the year after a too-close-for-comfort game versus the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines must get ready for James Franklin and the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley.
While Michigan is the No. 16 team in the land, Penn State is the No. 7 team in the country, undefeated at 6-0. Do the Wolverines have a chance to pull off the road upset or are they doomed to suffer their second conference loss before Halloween?
Michigan will have a chance, but the Wolverines will need to play their most complete ball game of the season to have any sliver of hope versus Penn State in a night game at Beaver Stadium. This means a good offense, great defense and no-nonsense on special teams. That’s what it will take to beat the Nittany Lions in Beaver Stadium Saturday night and nothing short of that.
Penn State is coming off a great defensive showing on the road versus the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium last week. Though the Michigan defense also shut down Iowa at home two weeks ago, Penn State had a slightly easier time moving the ball on them. Plus, the Nittany Lions were playing a night game on the road, as opposed to a day game at home like Michigan versus Iowa.
That was a rare road win versus a ranked team for Penn State under Franklin, as Iowa was the No. 17 team in the country, but now is at No. 23 after back-to-back Big Ten losses to Michigan in Arbor and at home to the Nittany Lions. Penn State will be bringing that momentum back to State College after a great team win in Iowa City.
While the Nittany Lions can afford to drop this game at home and still reach the College Football Playoff, assuming they win out after this and beat the Ohio State Buckeyes head-to-head, the Wolverines’ Playoff dreams are on life support. A second conference loss would ensure that Michigan would fail once again to reach the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis under Harbaugh.
The margin for error for Michigan is razor-thin, but win out and the Wolverines will be going to the College Football Playoff. Having theoretical wins over Penn State, Ohio State and presumably Wisconsin in a rematch in the Big Ten Championship, as well as at home at Iowa would most certainly have the Wolverines in the top four. Unfortunately, that will not happen for Harbaugh.
His team’s offense has been one of the blandest in the Power 5. Michigan has a former five-star recruit at quarterback, albeit a transfer from Ole Miss, in Shea Patterson, but can’t seem to move the football consistently against good, but not great teams in the Big Ten.
The Wolverines can play excellent defense on Saturday, but without any offensive firepower, how are they going to win a night game in Happy Valley in what will surely be a whiteout by the home crowd? Michigan cannot lose the turnover battle and must get touchdowns when the offense finds itself in the red zone. Points will be hard to come by against Penn State in State College.
While a loss in State College is somewhat expected for Michigan, this will mean that the Wolverines have sadly hit their ceiling under Harbaugh. In a good year, the Wolverines can win 10 regular-season games and get to a New Year’s Six bowl game. Until they can beat their big division rivals consistently, not to mention even defeat Ohio State once, we’ll have to count Michigan out.
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