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Daily Fantasy Basketball: How to win playing NBA DFS

By Dan Palyo

PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 12: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball against Al Horford #42 of the Boston Celtics at the Wells Fargo Center on February 12, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Celtics defeated the 76ers 112-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 12: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball against Al Horford #42 of the Boston Celtics at the Wells Fargo Center on February 12, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Celtics defeated the 76ers 112-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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US basketball players Kawhi Leonard (R) and Paul George are introduced as the new players of the Los Angeles Clippers during a press conference in Los Angeles on July 24, 2019. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo credit should read FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images) /

Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cash vs. GPP

I often get asked, “what makes a player a cash play vs. a GPP play?”  The answer is different for different players, but the easiest answer for me is “the amount of confidence you have in that player reaching their floor.”  For cash games, we want players with floors, who are less likely to bust than others while it’s ceilings that we are chasing in GPPs.  That is a universal DFS philosophy, but here’s how it applies specifically to NBA DFS.

So what are we looking for in cash game plays? The number one answer is minutes. More minutes on the floor almost always equals more fantasy points.  If a player is not projected to get 30+ minutes, I’m not likely to use them in a cash game lineup, it’s that simple. But minutes aren’t the only thing we’re looking for as there are plenty of players around the league who play big minutes without doing much while they’re out on the floor. Someone like Tony Snell can be maddening to use in DFS even while playing a lot of minutes because he is a spot-up shooter who doesn’t get many ancillary stats.

Usage is the other major stat we’re looking for when finding cash game plays.  Usage is a stat that measures how many possessions were used by each player while they’re on the floor. Every time a player ends his team’s possession with a shot attempt, free throw attempts or a turnover that possession counts towards his usage rate.  The simplest way to say it is that it shows us how involved a player is in their team’s offense. The league average is around 20% so we are looking for usage rates higher than that. James Harden last year led the league with a 39.6% usage rate which leads me to my next point…