Who is in the College Football Playoff? Who is a contender? Who is a pretender? What the Week 8 fallout means for the latest College Football Playoff rankings projection.
College Football Playoff rankings – In
1. Alabama – The Crimson Tide won their 13th straight vs. rival Tennessee but lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a high-ankle sprain in the second quarter. He’ll likely miss next week vs. Arkansas but the team hopes to have him back for LSU in three weeks. If Tagovailoa doesn’t make a full and complete recovery, the game of the century vs. LSU and Alabama could take on a much different vibe. The next three weeks will be interesting as the world watches Tua’s walking boot.
2. LSU – The Tigers got a win at Mississippi State that saw Joe Burrow set the new single-season record for touchdowns. The fact he did it in less than seven full games says so much about what he’s done this year and how bad LSU quarterbacks have been through the decades. Get ready for the talk about both Alabama and LSU making the Playoff if their Nov. 9 game is a tight one.
3. Ohio State – The Buckeyes won a laugher at Northwestern on Friday night. The Buckeyes host Wisconsin next Saturday in their toughest test this season. The Badgers, however, are coming off a road loss at Illinois so a lot of their shine has been diminished in what would have otherwise been a game between two top-6 teams. Ohio State should be a big favorite.
4. Clemson – The Tigers won behind 192 yards from Travis Etienne who also had a rushing score. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns but also had a pair of ugly interceptions in the first quarter. He has eight picks on the year, twice as many as he had all of last year, so if he continues to turn the ball over, it’s going to bite them when they better opponents. They’ll be in so long as they’re undefeated.
Just missed the cut
5. Oklahoma – The Sooners won against West Virginia behind five more touchdowns from Jalen Hurts. The Sooners can’t afford a loss because their schedule won’t let them in as a one-loss team. Oklahoma needs Texas to play better for their win to hold more weight. Oklahoma beating an undefeated Baylor wouldn’t even qualify as the same type of quality win as you’d think.
6. Penn State – The Nittany Lions almost blew it but they held on for a 28-21 win vs. Michigan to remain undefeated. James Franklin’s team controls its destiny. If they can beat Ohio State and take the Big Ten, they’ll make their first playoff appearance.
Still alive but need some luck
7. Florida – The Gators have dealt with significant injuries but have managed to stay afloat due. The loss to LSU stung last week, but they battled back for a nice win vs. South Carolina who was coming off a win vs. Georgia. For Florida, they need to beat Georgia and then beat the SEC West representative in the SEC Championship Game. If they do that, Dan Mullen’s Gators will be in. Easy enough for me to type but another to go out and do it.
8. Georgia – The path for the Bulldogs isn’t that complicated. If Georgia blows out Florida and wins the SEC Championship Game over an undefeated Alabama or LSU, they are a lock to make the playoff.
9. Auburn – The Tigers beat Arkansas on Saturday in a game that has no significance on the big picture. If Auburn beats LSU, Georgia and Alabama and wins the SEC Championship Game, they’ll be in the College Football Playoff. If they do that, I will print this column out, deep fry it and cover it with ranch and eat it as an appetizer before their semifinal game.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
10. Oregon – Many wrote the Ducks after their season-opening loss to Auburn, but they still have a pulse after their comeback road win vs. Washington. Justin Herbert threw four touchdowns and the Ducks defense made enough stops late to prevail against Jacob Eason and the Huskies. Oregon needs Auburn to win the SEC somehow to make them look better as a one-loss team. For that to happen, Alabama or LSU will have at least two losses. They’re not dead, but they’re barely breathing.
11. Utah – How did the Utes lose to USC? That’s going to be one of the biggest mysteries of the year. Outside of that game, Utah is blowing out its opponents, including Arizona State on Saturday. The South is theirs barring a total collapse and a likely matchup awaits with Oregon. Then they’ll play in a respectable bowl game but they won’t be in the playoff barring the craziest November we’ve seen in a long time.
Teams who need total chaos to unfold
Baylor – Matt Rhule is showing he’s one of the best coaches in the country and could be in line for a bigger job this offseason if he wants it. Baylor could run the table, which would mean two wins over Oklahoma and a Big 12 Championship. However, the committee would definitely take a one-loss SEC team over them.
Minnesota – P.J. Fleck should get some credit for the job he’s doing rather than being a guy with a cool catchphrase. The Gophers are 7-0 for the first time since 1960 and have three straight Big Ten wins by more than 20 points for the first time since 1935. This is the best season for Minnesota since their dynasty days but there won’t be a playoff appearance this year.
SMU – Give it up for Sonny Dykes for having the Mustangs at 7-0. It’s one of the best coaching jobs around the nation. A four-team Group of Five Playoff would be something I can get behind with SMU, App State, Boise State and Cincinnati. That’s as close as SMU is getting to a playoff.
Appalachian State – The Mountaineers are undefeated and doing it in style but they had a greater chance at upsetting Michigan when they had their historic takedown than they do of making the four-team playoff.
Read them their last rites
Wisconsin – The Badgers are done following their 24-23 loss at Illinois. This is a loss the committee won’t be able to overlook as they make their rankings. Outside of Wisconsin beating Ohio State in Columbus and then again in the Big Ten Championship Game or an undefeated Penn State, there’s a good chance they never recover.
Notre Dame – The Irish needed a lot to go in their favor after losing to Georgia. Without a conference championship game to end the year with a resume-boosting win, Notre Dame is left to Michigan next week as their last opportunity for a signature win. That’s just not going to be good enough to make much headway with the committee after the second loss of the year for Jim Harbaugh’s team.
Boise State – The Broncos had the inside track on the New Year’s Six automatic bowl bid. That was before they ran into BYU who got 21 unanswered points in the third quarter to hand the Broncos their first loss of the year. Now their path to the Cotton Bowl is murky with SMU, Appalachian State and Cincinnati in contention. Even if Boise State went undefeated, we’ve seen this movie before with UCF. The committee is never going to allow a Group of Five school into the playoff.
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