NBA Season Preview 2019-20: Predictions for each individual award
Most Improved Player
- Caris LeVert, Brooklyn Nets
- Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
- Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
- Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans
- Terry Rozier, Charlotte Hornets
First things first: There’s always some general confusion about an award with an ambiguous title like “Most Improved Player,” so looking at past winners for clarity is helpful. This award typically goes to players who make leaps to stardom, but weren’t quite established beforehand.
MIP is often unpredictable, usually going to a pleasant surprise who establishes himself. Just look at the last six winners before Pascal Siakam — Victor Oladipo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, CJ McCollum, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler. They all went on to become All-Stars and established names at worst, and MVP candidates and franchise cornerstones at best.
To that end, it’s difficult to see such a gargantuan jump coming from long-shot candidates like Derrick White, OG Anunoby, Luke Kennard, Zach Collins or Markelle Fultz. This award also rarely goes to second-year players, since all they have to improve on is a transitionary rookie season. That rules out names like Jaren Jackson Jr., Marvin Bagley III, Deandre Ayton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell Robinson.
Zach LaVine probably scored too many points last season to qualify here. It’s hard to see Brandon Ingram stealing the spotlight from Zion, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball enough to win, especially if he continues to just jack up long 2s. Dejounte Murray has looked shaky returning from injury, and barring a massive leap in production, the incoming progress we see from Jonathan Isaac, Bam Adebayo and Thomas Bryant may be dulled by the baselines their lower numbers set last year.
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If voters are looking for empty calories, the statistical leap we’ll probably see from starting point guard Terry Rozier could garner him some attention. He was one of the worst rotation players in the NBA last year, but he’s put up efficient, well-rounded numbers in the preseason, and the Charlotte Hornets don’t have many other options to turn to for production.
The Hornets’ poor record will prevent him from winning, and our top four candidates all come from teams that are likely to at least be competitive. Lonzo Ball edges Ingram as the Pelicans’ leading MIP candidate, since his 3-point shot will remain under the microscope. If it improves to even respectable territory, he’ll get votes as the floor general of a fun, up-tempo offense.
Jamal Murray may have averaged too many points per game last year (18.2), but another scoring jump could very well be coming. He’s only 22 years old, entering his fourth NBA season, and the Denver Nuggets could use a go-to scorer. If he hurdles into 25 points per game territory, isn’t it possible that’s enough to serve as his career breakthrough and make him an MIP frontrunner?
Jaylen Brown just missed the cut for the top five, but that’s only because Jayson Tatum feels like the more likely Boston Celtics wing to break through this season. He didn’t make the leap everyone was expecting last year, but with Kyrie Irving and Al Horford gone, he’ll be Boston’s designated No. 2 option on offense.
Caris LeVert gets the final nod for two reasons: He was playing at an All-Star level last season before injury struck, and upon returning, he was the Nets’ best player for most of the postseason. If he’s fully healthy, and if he and Irving mesh in the backcourt, LeVert could very well make a jump to true stardom in 2019-20.