Breaking down the top college football quarterbacks with film study to look at the Week 8 performances from Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and more.
Week 8 was a golden opportunity for the nation’s best quarterbacks to show off their skill sets against prime competition. Some, like LSU’s Joe Burrow and Washington’s Jacob Eason, took advantage of their primetime showdowns and helped themselves. Unfortunately, not all went well as Tua Tagovailoa was injured and Jordan Love struggled in the cold weather.
Wins and losses aren’t everything on Saturday but isolating individual play helps give us the context we need. Franchises are quarterback-driven, and thus always keeping an eye out for their next star.
We stuck to the big names this week because there was a full slate. Tagovailoa, Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Eason, Love, and Justin Herbert are under the microscope for evaluation. Michigan’s Shea Patterson‘s poor play again drops him out of consideration for further looks, but Iowa State’s Brock Purdy is making a case for inclusion. So is Texas’ Sam Ehlinger.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
The difference between Trevor Lawrence staying in the Heisman race and dropping to 100-to-1 odds was two throws in Week 8 against Louisville. Those two throws, deep interceptions, were abhorrent decisions that did not exist in 2018. Lawrence’s destructive decision-making came on back-to-back passes.
Both of his downfield heaves were more like Hail Mary’s than legitimate opportunities for a big play. It’s baffling why he forced these throws early in the game as opposed to taking underneath options. Several defenders were in the direct area of his target and almost seemed like the intended receiver.
Trevor Lawrence's accuracy chart against Louisville pic.twitter.com/yv7i535vws
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 22, 2019
These two throws overshadowed a strong performance from Lawrence. He was almost perfect throwing elsewhere, including a deep pass over the middle to Justyn Ross right before half time. His decision to throw that jump ball was easier to justify since time was running out and playing for a touchdown made more sense than the potential risk.
The good plays from Lawrence are increasing each week, especially when he moves outside of the pocket. It’s just the egregiousness of the mistakes that are sticking in my mind. He’s still a great talent but the next few months are an opportunity for him to re-establish himself as a can’t miss prospect for 2021.
Clemson continues to roll even with his learning curve. This team will win out until the playoff, but things will get dicey if Lawrence doesn’t take better care of the ball.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
We didn’t get to see much from Tua against Tennessee as he suffered a high ankle injury in the second quarter on a sack. He was inaccurate on just one of his 12 throws, but his miss was a terrible interception in the red zone. Usually incredibly smart and safe with the ball, his decision to throw cross-body directly to a defender was a shocking play to see.
The rest of his game was uninspiring and limited. He hit one deep pass but it was underthrown. The completion was valuable but also could’ve been a touchdown. There’s not much to take away from this game except for the concerns over his ankles.
He’ll now be out at least one week after the injury required surgery. Hopefully, he’ll be back in time for the LSU game in two weeks. Either way, the fact he’s had two ankle surgeries, one on each ankle, is a potential issue for NFL teams.
Rushing back from injury is never a good thing but we need to see him play well in crucial games. Especially since Joe Burrow continues his ascent into stardom, Tua must solidify his grasp as the top quarterback prospect.
Joe Burrow, LSU
This week’s top performer again is Joe Burrow. Blazing the world on fire with a 79.4 completion percentage, his raw stats mostly tell the story of his season so far. Burrow was solid against Mississippi State, missing only seven passes on 29 attempts.
Though he only threw beyond 10 yards six times, his ability to pepper the entire field is impressive. He’s fearless extending plays with his legs and maintaining focus downfield. He’s taking enough risks to feel comfortable he has playmaking potential in addition to winning within structure.
Joe Burrow's accuracy chart against Mississippi State pic.twitter.com/guJ1AakZFP
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 22, 2019
There was finally some sign of weakness with Burrow. Every quarterback dips against pressure, and he’s no different from his peers. What I saw this game was his mechanics breaking down and him leaning backward on throws when pressure arrives.
This is something to see over the next two weeks against Auburn and Alabama. We know Burrow can hit throws inside a clean pocket and even on some rollouts. But how he does under duress is largely a question mark still.
Jacob Eason, Washington
It’s not often that the lesser star quarterback ends up with a loss, but that’s what happened in the critical Pac-12 battle between Washington and Oregon. Huskies quarterback Jacob Eason had his team humming and seemingly set for a nice upset until they went too conservative down the stretch.
But Eason wasn’t to blame for the loss. He varied his passing attempts up to 19 yards and was able to deliver two catchable balls on the only two downfield shots he took. I’d like to see him go deep more often but he continually avoids turnover-worthy throws while showing off great velocity on short and intermediate attempts.
Jacob Eason's accuracy chart against Oregon pic.twitter.com/slroK2NJFr
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 22, 2019
I’m hopeful Chris Petersen will push Eason even more down the stretch to see how he fares trying to convert third downs beyond the markers more often. He has a nice baseline of talent and is smart with the ball but the aggressiveness and playmaking must be proven.
There are also so few red zone attempts on the season due to their run-heavy approach that I want to see more opportunities there as well. Working within confined passing windows is critical for a quarterback’s outlook but we barely have the examples we need to have any confidence.
At least for this week, Eason was better than Herbert in terms of consistency, poise and process. We still have to find out whether he can be a creator outside of the scheme, though.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
I thought the Washington-Oregon game would be decided by which inconsistent quarterback would be better, but that’s not how this game worked itself out. Instead of Herbert coming out with a mic-dropping performance that compelled us to consider him as a sure top-three quarterback prospect, he was flustered and all over the place too often. It’s hard to feel good about him despite the team winning.
Breaking down his passing chart helps explain his troubles. He’s been notably poor against pressure this year, and that largely continued against a fast Washington defense. He had two beautiful intermediate throws under pressure, both over the middle. Those were critical drive extenders for the Ducks, but he also missed on six of his 10 total throws under pressure.
Justin Herbert's accuracy chart against Washington pic.twitter.com/3YNpiz97uL
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 22, 2019
These light bulb moments for Herbert are what some team must develop. He’s never found peace in a tumultuous pocket consistently in his time at Oregon, which is not a good sign that he’ll ever be a net positive there. He’s also poor throwing deep and that limits the upside of the unit.
His raw stats are great with 21 touchdowns and only one interception, but there’s so much fluff in the offense that we can clearly see he’s being protected by the scheme and his role. It’s not the same Herbert we saw two years ago, and though he’s been better than last season, this Washington game didn’t teach us anything new on the positive side.
Jordan Love, Utah State
One of the biggest tests for Jordan Love and Utah State this year was replacing Matt Wells‘ offensive scheme and getting their quarterback comfortable in it. It just hasn’t happened this year. We’re already six games in and he has a pathetic average yards per attempt of 5.6 and a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Sometimes an accuracy chart can negate some of this and the context gives optimism. Though five drops hurt Love this weekend, only one was of real consequence. And his own issues with ball placement actually accounted for two of those.
Jordan Love's accuracy chart against Nevada pic.twitter.com/o8kpU6QhTc
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) October 22, 2019
The weather played a factor in this game as it was snowing prior to the game and stayed cold throughout. But that’s not a fair excuse when it comes to missing open targets and losing his footwork foundation at the first sign of pressure. Love’s still a project at this point.
His skittish nature in the pocket, absence of a repeatable throwing motion and stagnant development have to hurt his stock. Going back to this coaching staff next year might not be the best option for his growth, but a jump to the NFL is a risk as well with his flaws. There’s a real chance his best opportunity to hit his perceived ceiling walked out the door when Wells took the Texas Tech job.
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