What’s the ceiling for Minnesota football under P.J. Fleck?

The Minnesota Golden Gophers improve to 8-0 (5-0) on the season after thrashing the Maryland Terrapins. What’s their ceiling under head coach P.J. Fleck?

The sports world is not often kind to the state of Minnesota. Look no further than its professional teams in the Twin Cities. However, the college team is certainly getting done on the gridiron this year. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are rowing the boat for third-year head coach P.J. Fleck, improving to 8-0 (5-0) after wiping the floor with the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday.

The Golden Gophers were the No. 17 team in the country entering Week 9 and have a terrific shot at cracking the top-15 entering their bye week in Week 10. With four conference games remaining, we have to wonder how much longer this good story in Minneapolis will last. What is the ceiling for Minnesota football under Coach Fleck? Will it be fully realized this season?

To answer those questions, let’s look at the remaining schedule for the Golden Gophers. On Nov. 9, they will host the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that will also be coming off a bye in Week 10. They will be ranked in the top five in the country by that point. It’ll be a home game for the Gophers, but few people outside of Minnesota think the home team is going to win. That’s a loss.

Losing to a national title contender at home in Penn State isn’t horrible. It’d be about as good of a home loss as you could have on your résumé. On Nov. 16, Minnesota will host the division rival Iowa Hawkeyes, who will have played the Golden Gophers’ archrival in the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison the week before.

Iowa may have crushed the Northwestern Wildcats, but Northwestern is terrible and Wisconsin is desperate for a win after suffering consecutive losses to the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road. Minnesota can beat Iowa, but its game with the Hawkeyes will be in Iowa City, which is always a tough place to play. The Gophers can win, but it won’t be easy.

After two tough games with Penn State at home and on the road vs. Iowa, the Golden Gophers should win easily over pathetic Northwestern. To think that team won the Big Ten West a year ago is almost unimaginable at this point in the season. Northwestern is 1-6 (0-5) on the year entering Week 10. Anything less than a blowout victory over Northwestern would be a disappointment.

Finally, the Gophers will host the archrival Badgers in Minneapolis for possibly the right to go to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship. Wisconsin already has two conference losses and has to play Iowa, as well as the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road. It’s a huge game for both teams, but a potentially three-loss Wisconsin team may not have the juice to beat Minnesota this year.

So looking at the Gophers’ last four conference games, they can do as well as 3-1 or as poorly as 1-3 over that stretch. They’re not beating Penn State and there’s no way they’re losing to Northwestern. An 11-1 (8-1) season would get the Gophers to Indianapolis to face either Penn State in a rematch or the Ohio State Buckeyes for a right to go to the College Football Playoff.

If at 11-1 (8-1), beating either team that comes out of the Big Ten East will punch the Gophers’ improbable ticket to the College Football Playoff. They’d have a better chance at getting the best of Penn State in a rematch but have no chance against Ohio State in a neutral site. It’d be amazing if the Gophers got it done, but the Big Ten West hasn’t beaten the Big Ten East in Indianapolis yet.

A 9-3 (6-3) record will get the Gophers to a bowl game somewhere in Florida versus an 8-4 or 7-5 SEC team. The weather down south would be greatly appreciated during the holiday season, but that’s not the bowl Minnesota will want to play in and probably not the Golden Gophers’ destination at the end of the day.

What feels likely is a 10-2 (7-2) record with a home loss to Penn State and either a road loss at Iowa or a home loss vs. Wisconsin. Depending on how the tiebreaker goes and which rival, Iowa or Wisconsin, has three conference losses on the campaign, we’re looking at a pretty likely Big Ten West division title and a conference championship game appearance for the Golden Gophers.

Meeting them in Indianapolis will be the presumptive winner of Ohio State and Penn State. Unfortunately for the Gophers, they will suffer a third loss on the season and be at 10-3 (7-2) when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee meets for the final time this year.

The Big Ten East winner/Big Ten Champion will go to the College Football Playoff. Assuming the loser of Ohio State vs. Penn State only has that one loss this season, that team will go to the Rose Bowl, as their résumé would be better than Minnesota’s in the Selection Committee’s eyes.

From there, the Gophers have a semi-decent shot at getting to a New Year’s Six bowl. Fleck took his former team in the Western Michigan Broncos to the Cotton Bowl Classic in 2016 as an undefeated team out of the Group of 5. Perhaps a return trip to Arlington could be in play for Fleck this January? Get your cowboy hats and boots ready, Gophers. You just might get to go to Texas.

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