Don’t be surprised if Canelo Alvarez knocks out Sergey Kovalev

Canelo Alvarez jumps up two weight classes to make his light heavyweight debut against WBO champion Sergey Kovalev. How will this fight end?

On Saturday, Nov. 2, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs) moves up two weight classes to challenge Sergey Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) for the WBO light heavyweight title. A win would mark Alvarez’s fourth division winning a title, but is he trying to pull off too much?

Alvarez is motivated to add to his legacy.

“Because he’s the best in his division, he’s one of the best, that’s why we chose him, to make history by fighting one of the best,” said Alvarez during Wednesday’s press conference.

Alvarez is arguably the most famous fighter in all of boxing. He’s a huge draw who’s used to winning against elite competition. During his 14-year professional career, he has amassed victories over Shane Mosley, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto, and Gennady Golovkin.

He boasts an impressive list of conquests, but he only has one win above the middleweight division. That came against Rocky Fielding in 2018 as a super middleweight, but it wasn’t much of a test for Alvarez.

Kovalev is a bigger foe who is much more accomplished and dangerous than Fielding. The 5-foot-8 Alvarez gives up 4 inches in height and 2 inches in reach to Kovalev. Many question the impact Kovalev’s size advantage will have on this fight, but don’t expect it to make much of a difference.

Alvarez regularly fights bigger men. He defeated Golovkin, who is 5-foot-10 Daniel Jacobs, who is nearly 6 feet tall. Both are better technical boxers than Kovalev, and Golovkin possesses more power than Kovalev.

Conventional wisdom has it that Alvarez shouldn’t struggle against Kovalev if he took care of business against Golovkin and Jacobs. In those fights, Alvarez utilized his hand speed and quickness to get inside of his larger opponents’ reach. He will look to do the same against Kovalev.

Alvarez didn’t look as explosive against Jacobs in his last bout as he did in his win over Golovkin. It’s possible that his two wars with Golovkin took a toll on his physical well being. Alvarez also has a history of knee problems. He had knee surgery in April of 2018, and he wears sleeves on both knees. If his mobility is deteriorating, he might be hindered defensively against Kovalev.

Kovalev is 36 years old, and his career over the last three years has been inconsistent. He lost twice to Andre Ward but was stopped in the return bout. He switched trainers but was surprisingly knocked out by Eleider Alvarez.

He switched trainers again and looked rejuvenated with Buddy McGirt in his corner. He easily outboxed Alvarez to regain his title and defended it by knocking out Anthony Yarde in August. His knockout was exciting, but he showed serious flaws.

Kovalev was nearly knocked out by Yarde in round 8. In between rounds, McGirt told Kovalev he would stop the fight if he didn’t show improvement. Kovalev had a second wind and won, but his chin is suspect. He’s also there to be hit.

Yarde is powerful, but his boxing skills are underdeveloped. If he can almost stop Kovalev, then Alvarez stands a better chance of breaking him down over time.

Both fighters have distractions outside of the ring. Alvarez recently aired his frustration with Oscar De La Hoya, the CEO of Golden Boy Promotions, while talking to The Athletic.

“There’s no loyalty,” said Alvarez to The Athletic about De La Hoya. “We see it now.”

Kovalev’s distractions are much more troubling. Kovalev’s felony assault trial begins in late November. He’s facing significant jail time if convicted. Kovalev was also removed from a flight in July for allegedly harassing a female passenger.

Kovalev’s conduct is alarming and suggests that he has troubles that haven’t been disclosed. The stress of legal woes is likely affecting him even if it’s not visible to the public.

Kovalev’s boxing skills against Alvarez in the rematch looked much improved, but the durability of his chin almost cost him his title against Yarde. Canelo Alvarez is small, but he’s a masterful boxer.

Kovalev’s lack of hand speed, defensive liabilities, and questionable chin are why FanSided is picking Alvarez to win via TKO in round 10.

Many boxing pundits are picking Alvarez to win by decision, but his style is poison for Kovalev. Kovalev loves to utilize his jab and keep his opponent away, by Alvarez is too elusive to fall victim to Kovalev’s most reliable punch. Also, Kovalev’s advanced age and slowed reflexes should make him a relatively easy target.

Alvarez vs. Kovalev begins at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 2, on DAZN. It’s a fascinating matchup that should be action-packed.