Projected college Football Playoff rankings: Will there be a big surprise in Top 4?

The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday, but here’s a sneak peek of how the top four will look and who is on the outside looking in.

Get hyped college football fans, because the first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday night at halftime of the Kansas-Duke college basketball game on ESPN. With LSU and Alabama on tap will the playoff committee agree with the AP voters that the Tigers and Tide are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams?

The easy decision is LSU will be No. 1 because they have three quality wins already this season. Wins in Austin over Texas, at home vs. Auburn and at Florida should vault the Bayou Bengals to the top spot.

Does Alabama have a claim? Of course, they do. They’ve been a dominant group on offense when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and their defense is improving with every passing week.

If Alabama has a claim, Ohio State does as well. They’ve played just as well so far this season, with Heisman contenders on both sides of the ball in Justin Fields and Chase Young. They rolled through Wisconsin, Michigan State and everyone else in their path so they have a claim at No. 1 and No. 2 despite being No. 3 in the AP Poll.

Will the committee be as hard on reigning national champion Clemson as the AP voters who dropped them from No. 1 to No. 4 despite being undefeated?

Clemson is the only team who may not have a claim for the top spot, and the committee may bump the Tigers down because of a very weak schedule of opponent for Clemson. Also, that win over North Carolina didn’t look good at all.

Could Penn State vault Clemson for the No. 4 spot in the rankings and leave Clemson at No. 5 as the victim of a dreadful ACC? It’s certainly possible and would rank as a mild surprise. The SEC and Big Ten representing the entire four-team field wouldn’t be a shocker either. The SEC once had three teams in the top four. But if Clemson is on the outside, the Tigers just have to win out to get in at the end because Alabama-LSU and Ohio State-Penn State will cancel each other out.

Projected College Football Playoff rankings

1. LSU Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

4. Clemson Tigers

This is how I see the order at the moment.LSU has the best resume to date with three top-10 wins. Alabama and Ohio State are interchangeable at this point because of their dominant performances all season long. Clemson gets that fourth spot because of their undefeated season.

A big game awaits the top two teams on Saturday. LSU heads to Tuscaloosa to play the Crimson Tide in the game of the year. A lot hinges on that game, but the loser isn’t necessarily out of playoff contention. We saw Alabama sneak in after losing to Auburn and not appearing in the SEC title game. This game is important in determining who the top team in the country is, and everyone will be tuning in.

Ohio State has Penn State circled on the schedule a few weeks down the road. That game will most likely determine the Big Ten champion, and (probably) a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Clemson has a couple of games to watch down the stretch, but neither Wake Forest nor South Carolina should be a problem for them (although the latter did beat Georgia in Athens).

It’s certainly possible these are teams left standing in December.

Outside looking in

5. Penn State Nittany Lions

6. Georgia Bulldogs

7. Oregon Ducks

8. Utah Utes

Penn State, because they are undefeated, have the best look at the playoff of any of the teams left here. Their path is very clear. Beat Ohio State, and win the Big Ten, and they are in. They are a very balanced team that could give Ohio State all they can handle in a few weeks.

Georgia probably has the best chance of the one-loss teams here. Their huge win over Florida puts them in the driver’s seat to make another SEC Championship Game, where a win over LSU/Bama would vault them into the playoff.

Oregon and Utah got past some tough road tests this week, but they will need some help in order to reach the playoff. First, they need to survive a Pac 12 that beats everyone up. Then, the winner of the Pac 12 title game needs the SEC or Big Ten to blow up in some way, whether it be a two-loss Alabama or LSU or a Big Ten meltdown that may be finished with Minnesota as the conference champ.

Either way, it’s going to be a fun five weeks.

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