We all have an idea of what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee is going to do on Tuesday, but what should they do when picking the top four?
Tuesday night will feature the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2019 NCAA season. Thus far, we’ve relied on the AP Top 25 Poll, which is heavily influenced by the team’s perceptions at the start of the year based on last year. It’s not the poll’s fault, it’s just how that sort of thing goes when you have to rank teams No. 1 to No. 25 back in August. Last year tends to loom large.
But what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee is entrusted to do is decide who are the four best teams in the country after the conference championships to set up two national semifinal neutral-site games. The Committee’s job is to encapsulate the best team’s that this year has to offer.
Pretty simple concept, right? Well, they still might be heavily influenced by last year when picking the first four that would get in if the season ended after Week 10. Here is what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will do Tuesday night and what they should do.
What the College Football Playoff rankings will be
- LSU Tigers (8-0)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
- Clemson Tigers (8-0)
First Two Out: No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0), No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
These top six will roughly reflect what the AP Top 25 Poll will look like. Many teams ranked in the top 10 this past week were on bye. The only real movement here would be Georgia moving up from No. 8 to No. 6 after beating the then-No. 6 Florida Gators by a touchdown down in Jacksonville in their huge rivalry game. It’s conservative but terribly predictable.
So what’s wrong with what the Committee will likely do? Well, there are two pretty big issues with what that top-six will probably end up looking like: The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers. Both were in the national championship a year ago and have made the Playoff the last four years. They’re good, and that’s fine, but they haven’t played anybody to merit being top-four now.
Through their first eight games of the season, Alabama’s best win was on the road against the then-No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies. Texas A&M has three losses already and will probably have two more by the end of the regular season, as they end their SEC schedule on the road against Georgia and on the road against the LSU Tigers.
And let’s not even get started with how terribly soft Clemson’s schedule has been. The Tigers’ best win thus far came against Texas A&M in the second week of the season, beating the Aggies by 14 points at home before storming the field. We get that’s part of their tradition, but Clemson will play only one team that’ll finish the season ranked and that’s the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Overall, Alabama and Clemson will likely punch their ticket to the Playoff at the end of the day. However, they’ve played next to nobody and shouldn’t be rewarded for that up to this point. There are several other teams that have played quality opponents and navigate a strong schedule. Here is what the Selection Committee should do, but won’t have the stomach to do on Tuesday night.
What the College Football Playoff rankings should be
- Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
- LSU Tigers (8-0)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0)
First Two Out: No. 5 Clemson Tigers (8-0), No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
The top two should be undisputed, as the Ohio State Buckeyes have been the most dominant team thus far and the LSU Tigers have the best resume of any team in the league.
Ohio State is annihilating its opposition with wins over two ranked teams in the Wisconsin Badgers and the Michigan State Spartans. Michigan State isn’t good anymore, but Ohio State did beat an Indiana Hoosiers team that will be 7-2 and likely in the top 25. The point is that the Buckeyes need to be No. 1 or No. 2 on Tuesday night for this to reflect the season thus far.
LSU needs to be in the top two because the Bayou Bengals beat three teams ranked in the top 10 during their meetings. They still have their biggest test ahead of them when they play Alabama in Tuscaloosa next week. That being said, those three top-10 teams all have multiple losses now in the Texas Longhorns, the Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers. It’s still a great resume, though.
Penn State has played well enough to make the first top-four. The reason Alabama would be ahead of the Nittany Lions at No. 3 is that we largely think that Alabama is more likely to beat LSU than Penn State is to beat Ohio State. So even the most objective rankings still have some bias from yesteryear in it. But that doesn’t mean Clemson should just cakewalk into the top four.
Clemson is an SEC team that plays an ACC schedule. So the Tigers crush inferior competition every week or just about. This Clemson team is good, but it’s more likely to be the 2014 Florida State Seminoles than repeating as national champions. That Seminoles got the benefit of the doubt navigating a bad ACC to make the inaugural Playoff after winning the final BCS title in 2013.
Florida State would take on the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and would get drilled. The Baylor Bears or the TCU Horned Frogs would have put up a better effort than that. Clemson will be undefeated heading into the Playoff unless they drop one to Wake Forest. In that case, the Tigers won’t make the Playoff, as they wouldn’t have beaten anybody of note all year long.
To wrap this up, Alabama and Clemson will get the benefit of the doubt from the Selection Committee based on what they’ve done in previous years vs. this year. They’re both undefeated at 8-0, but there’s no teeth to that résumé. Alabama will have played LSU by this time next week, so the Crimson Tide will have earned its positioning. Sadly, Clemson won’t, but will still get in at 13-0.
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