Season review of college football’s top quarterbacks: Tua in elite company, Jalen Hurts better than Kyler Murray?

Breaking down the top college football quarterbacks with film study to look at this season’s performances from Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and more.

We’re entering the final stretch of the regular season now that November is here. Week 10 was a weak slate of games for the nation’s premier prospects, as Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Fields were on bye weeks. Trevor Lawrence essentially had the opportunity to pad his stats against Wofford.

Both Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert had quality performances in their matchups, with Fromm hitting a few clutch throws against Florida and Herbert having three solid quarters against USC. Hopefully, each will be able to build upon these games and continue to finish the season strong.

But we’re going to take this week as an opportunity to catch up on how these NFL-hopeful quarterbacks are faring in comparison to expectations, how they’re developing, and how they look in terms of the data I chart with catchable passes. I’ve tracked 83 quarterbacks in order to build a database to find statistical significance and this process helps clarify which prospects are legitimate and those who have major red flags beyond what we think we see on film.

Above you’ll see how each of the quarterbacks we’ve been charting this season have performed. The colors are coded in quartiles, with green, yellow, orange and red being the order of quality. I’ll add context to this raw data and find statistical comparisons for each signal-caller.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

After his stellar freshman season in 2018, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence was poised to be the next great hype. I broke down his performance and even posed that he was generational and had the makeup to be the best college football quarterback of all time. There’s still time for him to fulfill that lofty praise but this season has been filled with more regression and head-scratching decisions than imagined.

His accuracy across the board has dropped in his sophomore campaign. Four percentage points lower on 0-10 attempts, three percent on 11-19 attempts, and six percent on deep throws. His cumulative accuracy has dipped a whopping six points to just 63 percent, and his interception rate is up  2.6 percent, a significant rise.

Some of that is explainable because he’s throwing past 10 yards five percent more often than last year. He’s taking more risks as he grows into this offense. A few bad games also torpedoed his numbers, and recent dominance has him nearing impressive totals from 2018.

The Heisman hype is dead but Lawrence remains exquisitely talented. Even in a down year, his comparables are respectable. He’s more accurate beyond 10 yards than almost anyone in his cumulative range, a sign that a more-friendly scheme would boost his raw stats up significantly. He sits somewhere between Peyton Manning and Deshaun Watson with his 2019 numbers and there are strong parallels to Dan Marino‘s collegiate numbers as well.

His play against pressure is a major plus. He’s throwing a catchable ball 60 percent of the time, with six touchdowns to one interception. And though his accuracy on conversion downs has cratered, he’s likely to even out after ranking fifth in my database in 2018 with a 78 percent accuracy rate, and currently sitting 75th with a 59 percent rate.

How he plays over the next two months will be considerably more important than anything he’s done this season. If he dominates in January again, he’ll be restored as the golden prospect. Failure will bring up more questions, but his numbers indicate he is still on track to be a franchise guy.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

My QB1 for the 2020 class will remain unchanged barring a catastrophic collapse against LSU and in the playoff if Tua Tagovailoa plays in those contests. It’s a bummer about his ankle requiring surgery, and teams need to investigate the status of his ankles and whether he will be durable in the NFL. But on the field, Tua is ripping defenses apart with precision and efficiency like we’ve never seen.

He’s throwing less downfield this year after complaints that he was playing hero-ball too often last year. We know he can win either way thanks to his cerebral nature and accuracy. This has put him in the top-10 of nearly every category except deep ball accuracy, where he has a small sample and is still deadly despite the average 43 percent rate.

He sticks with elite company in my database. He’s at least next to or better than former No. 1 overall picks Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in cumulative accuracy and throws beyond 10 yards. His play against pressure remains elite and is No. 2 overall to Dwayne Haskins on conversion downs.

The most shocking stat is his touchdown-to-interceptable pass rate difference. He’s at a 14.4 percent difference this year, which is almost five percent higher than the previous top difference, Kyler Murray. Third on this list is Tua’s 2018 season with a 9.4 percent difference.

Even Baker didn’t have this type of efficiency and production. And unlike Mayfield, Tagovailoa is as dangerous outside of structure as he is inside of it, and maneuvers around pressure more effectively as he buys time.

He’s not a perfect prospect thanks to a solid but not special arm and there’s going to be an adjustment with the level of competition like every quarterback faces, but the only reason to be concerned about Tua is his health and whether those ankles can hold up.

Joe Burrow, LSU

We can’t talk about risers without mentioning arguably the biggest riser from junior to senior season that we’ve ever seen. LSU’s Joe Burrow had an early Day 3, late Day 2 grade as a backup with the potential to improve in the right system entering the year. But a system change and increase in accuracy have given Burrow a firm grasp on the QB2 spot for me, and he’s on pace to destroy my database if he continues at this rate.

Burrow ranks second in 0-10 accuracy, third in 11-19 accuracy, first in deep accuracy of those with 30 or more attempts, first in both cumulative accuracy and throws beyond 10 yards, first under pressure and 19th on conversion downs. He’s done this while being pressured the 12th-most times in my data.

Suffice to say, he’s been dominant. Some of this is due to an immensely talented group of playmakers around him and a generally weak strength of schedule. But like it is for others we’re looking at, we can isolate as much as possible. He’s getting the ball to his playmakers with great consistency and extending drives while dealing with defenders in his face.

His ability to create outside of the pocket is exciting as well. His mechanics are strong and he has a good enough arm to thrive in schemes that ask him to win with short and intermediate throws. He’s a terrific fit into the current NFL, reminding me of Tom Brady in terms of how he reads leverage and places the ball. I’m not saying he’ll be Brady, but he overcomes some physical limitations better than anyone.

He has a bit of a push motion with his arm that appears odd, and his delivery is a tad slow because of the wind-up. I don’t believe this will be why he could bust at the next level, but his margin for error will be smaller if it’s not correctable. He’s shown the timing and placement at LSU to suggest he’ll be just fine at the next level.

The unorthodox loos reminds me somewhat of Patrick Mahomes. The unique delivery that both have can be picked apart but it doesn’t matter as long as it’s effective. It’s what separates an effective playmaker like Burrow from an ineffective yet pretty passer like Jordan Love.

Justin Herbert, Oregon

Expected to be no lower than the second quarterback taken in the 2020 class, Oregon’s Justin Herbert has accumulated great raw numbers but only mediocre stats in terms of throwing catchable balls. The good news is he’s passing through the filters, which is the point of this charting more than guaranteeing anyone being great. But the muddied nature of his volatile tape and uninspiring ranking have us staring down another Carson Wentz situation.

I was too low on Wentz in hindsight. His numbers were mediocre-at-best and his tape had a ton of inconsistencies. He went to the right situation and improved his footwork, passing motion and situational play. Herbert has the natural athleticism to do the same thing despite lacking touch on his throws but trusting that development is often foolish until we see the staff he’s drafted by.

Herbert’s sitting between his impressive 2017 debut season and his dreadful 2018 campaign with his performance. Currently, he compares almost identically to Paxton Lynch even while playing in a much better conference and not dealing with the same issues Lynch did in terms of personality (though scouts are concerned that Herbert doesn’t fit in well with teammates and he’s too laid back). There are also some comparisons to Mahomes, though the latter was much better on film despite having a much worse surrounding cast.

The inconsistent nature of Herbert is maddening, and his deep ball limitations are real. His best moments look like a Pro Bowl-type quarterback but he’ll quickly follow up great plays with abhorrent misses and handling of pressure. Like Josh Allen, it’s very possible he ends up in the mediocre range if circumstances around him are ideal.

But is that worth a top-10 pick? It’s not for me. He’s the ultimate faith-based quarterback prospect in this class.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

Lincoln Riley has created a monster with his Oklahoma offense. Jalen Hurts is the latest quarterback to benefit from the system and surrounding cast that routinely springs wide open targets and huge rushing lanes. Though Hurts’ rise is marked and he’s certainly improved independently of the scheme, there’s a lot of noise in his performance that’s unlikely to translate into a first-round projection.

I compared Hurts’ development to Dak Prescott previously despite his accuracy numbers looking considerably better. Hurts ranks barely ahead of Kyler Murray in overall accuracy and is significantly better going beyond 10 yards thanks to his top overall intermediate performance. Hurts has the traits to legitimize his 81 percent accuracy rate, including a cleaner throwing motion and strong arm, but most of the time his attempts are lacking the passing windows he’ll see in the NFL.

It’s hard to project the vast majority of his dropbacks at Oklahoma. The adjustment curve will be considerable and we have to rely on what we know is a positive for Hurts: his work ethic, strong arm, and deeper passing. His anticipation, throwing on the move, and ball placement on short throws are tougher to be confident in until we see it.

His mediocre situational play and rising interceptable pass rate highlight red flags as a potential long-term NFL starter. He has all of the advantages in the world where he is, but struggles in the quick game and often looks to extend plays unnecessarily. He must win more often in those two areas or else he’ll struggle to stay an NFL starter.

Right now a Day 2 projection is more than fair for Hurts. He’ll need time and great coaching even more than anyone listed to this point. It’s quite possible he gets it too, but something to keep in mind when projecting his outlook.

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Georgia has become the new LSU when it comes to limiting their quarterback’s opportunities. The Bulldogs opened things up a little bit more than usual against Florida, as junior Jake Fromm attempted more intermediate passes (nine) than short passes (eight). It’s the first time that’s happened all year for Fromm.

He almost made the most of the chance to be more aggressive. Sans a missed open touchdown throw as he rolled out from a broken pocket and a dropped interception that was an underthrown deep ball, he enjoyed his best overall performance of the year. His play on third downs was also notably above-average.

His season as a whole has been more of the same, though. His intermediate accuracy is down almost nine percent and play against pressure down eight percent, but the rest is stable. Some of the difference may just be due to small sample sizes swinging on a few errant throws, but he’s largely been who he is throughout his three-year career.

There’s value in Fromm being a quality game-manager. Teams with a strong surrounding cast and defense can squeeze out a playoff run with him and be a successful competitor. It’s not the future starter I’d bother spending a pick on in the first two rounds, but he’s really good in his role.

His closest comparison is Brett Rypien of Boise State, who went undrafted despite a good statistical profile. Fromm will get a Power 5 boost, and comparing him to someone like Cody Kessler and even Tim Couch is more apt for his draft position. I expect him to go in the second round next year.

Jordan Love, Utah State

This has not been the expected year for a leap from Group of Five unknown up to first-rounder for Utah State’s Jordan Love. The mercurial passer has been stuck in a backward offense under retread head coach Gary Andersen after Matt Wells left, and the entire unit has been struggling to find their identity. There’s a slew of blown blocks, dropped receptions and missed throws that encapsulate the team’s decline.

Love isn’t to blame for all of that. He’s been maddeningly poor with his decision-making, dipping in his interceptable pass rate from 1.98 percent to a whopping 4.74 percent. Almost all of his interceptions this year are from bad reads, and half went straight into the belly of underneath coverage linebackers.

Despite the poor optics and a noticeable decline in mechanical process and footwork, Love’s only two notable drops in accuracy are in intermediate and conversion down attempts. The rest is almost identical to last season even with the sharp drop in offensive effectiveness.

NFL coaches may like that. It’s not as if Love is in the red for all of his categories, but only in interceptable passes. The issue is projecting how long of a leash he’ll be given to actually develop. It’s much like DeShone Kizer, who had obvious NFL traits as well but had scattershot mechanics and therefore unreliable accuracy.

Ideally, Love would transfer to a better quarterback situation like Alabama, LSU, Michigan or Oklahoma. He may not be interested in that, and a team may still want to draft and stash him for a year or two. Honing in that beautiful passing motion offers upside, but to this point, his statistical comparisons to Josh Allen and Jarrett Stidham seem more realistic than surefire anything in the NFL.

Jacob Eason, Washington

The Washington Huskies had high expectations this season despite losing program stalwarts at quarterback and running back, and that’s largely due to Jacob Eason‘s pending presence. There have been times when it’s been warranted, as Eason can get hot when he’s aggressive downfield and the impact plays come in bunches. But there’s been too many times where he’s a non-factor and just taking the easy checkdown.

His big arm is certainly a draw for scouts. He’s been able to hit NFL windows with his velocity and placement on short and intermediate attempts, and he’s surprisingly athletic for such a large frame. There’s a skillset in place where it’s easy to see that he’ll get a shot at the next level.

Eason often has moments where he looks like he hasn’t played in years, though. His feet are slow as stone when scanning the field, and incoming pressure forces him to use that arm talent because his ability to scan the field is also slow. The mental reps matter for his development but he doesn’t have time spent in a progressive offense after his Georgia days and Washington experience.

His game is similar to Matthew Stafford‘s under Jim Bob Cooter. He takes a ton of short shots despite the arm talent to hit downfield targets and he’s effective at it. His ceiling should be considerably higher than what he’s showing now if he gets more willing to attack defenses with regularity.

His strongest statistical comparison is another strong-armed quarterback who wins with the short game: Derek Carr. Carr was better throwing on intermediate attempts, but they’re otherwise nearly identical. I think Eason can have success like Carr is for Jon Gruden even if there’s not an uptick in downfield attempts.

Nevertheless, his return to Washington in a new, modernized offense would be recommended. Taking him in the second round could be a nice value if he is Carr, but that ceiling might be an easier sell if he does even better in 2020 with a fresh scheme.

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