Heisman Watch: Can Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa clinch with a win Saturday?

LSU vs. Alabama is the Game of the Century and will most likely determine the Heisman winner between Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa.

Last week was a bit uneventful since many of the top teams on a bye week, which also meant many of the Heisman candidates were not in action. That will not be that case in week 11 as everyone is back in action, including Alabama’s Tua Tagovialoa, who is expected to play this Saturday. This is great news not only for Crimson Tide fans but for all college football fans as this makes the LSU vs. Alabama game easily the biggest of the entire season. Not only will this give one of these teams an edge in the SEC West, but it will also have a significant influence on the Heisman race.

Outside of the SEC, there are still a few players in the hunt, but it will take a lot for them to rise to the top. Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts been putting up great numbers, and it still in the top three in overall odds, but he is fighting a not so great schedule, and the fatigue voter may have given Oklahoma past Heisman success.

Then you have multiple players at Ohio State vying for a spot in New York, so it will be fun to see what happens there.

We’ve reached the back half of the season, and at this point, none of these Heisman hopefuls can afford a setback. Not only for award season but team-wise too as all of these players are eyeing a college football playoff birth.

Here are the Heisman hopefuls to watch in Week 11 and who could make the biggest statement.

Joe Burrow, LSU QB at Alabama

• 205-260, 2,805 yards, 30 TDs
• 52 attempts, 125 yards, 3 TDs

Joe Burrow is the Heisman front-runner and has LSU playing their best offense ever. Burrow is second in the nation in passing yards and passing touchdowns along with third in passing efficiency, so his play continues to speak for itself.

Now he gets to make easily his biggest statement of the season this Saturday as LSU heads to Alabama in what will be the biggest game of the college football season.

LSU hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2013 when they won 9-6 in Tuscaloosa, and many believe this is their best team since then. Times have changed since that game six years ago as both sides are top five in scoring offense. Because of that, all eyes are on Burrow to be the one that gets the Tigers over the hump.

Burrow has faced some very good defenses this year (Auburn & Florida), and Alabama is right up there talent-wise. They are 13th in passing yards allowed and eighth in passing efficiency allowed with future NFL players all over the unit. However, they have not faced an offense anywhere near the capability of LSU, so this is a test for them as much as it is for Burrow. Plus, Alabama has a severe weakness at linebacker with how many young players they’ve had to put on the field because of injuries. This could be the area Burrow and the offense attack instead of testing their luck against cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Patrick Surtain Jr.

LSU is going to have to score a good amount of points to win this game, especially if Alabama is at full strength. Which means we could see a Big 12 style game down in SEC country.

This is a chance for a legendary Heisman moment from Burrow on the road, so it should be fun to watch.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma QB vs. Iowa State

• 133-180, 2469 yards, 21 TDs
• 103 attempts, 801 yards, 13 TDs

Last time we saw Oklahoma play, they were walking off the field after being upset by the Kansas State Wildcats 48-41. Jalen Hurts was tremendous yet again finishing with 491 total yards and four total touchdowns, so despite such a tough loss in terms of playoff hopes, Hurts is still very much in the Heisman race.

The only issue is that the schedule does Hurts no favors, so he’ll need to continue putting up massive numbers to keep people interested. For example, the team they face this week Iowa State was supposed to be a competing team in the Big 12 but have proven to be just good, not great.

The Cyclones do have a real defense as they currently rank 32nd in total defense, which is impressive given how skewed defensive numbers can be in the Big 12. If there is a weakness,  it would be their defensive pass efficiency, which is just average at 56th, and they are not good on 3rd down.

Though at this point, it doesn’t seem to matter what your defensive numbers are when you face a Lincoln Riley offense. Hurts is so crucial to what the Sooners want to do in the passing and run game that it is hard to see him having a bad game unless turnovers become an issue which they haven’t been thus far.

Coming off a bye, both he and Oklahoma should be rested and ready to make amends for their loss.

Tua Tagovialoa, Alabama QB vs. LSU

• 145-194, 2166 yards, 27 TDs
• 18 attempts, 30  yards, 2 TDs

We haven’t seen Tua Tagovialoa play in a few weeks, and although head coach Nick Saban has stated he’s a game-time decision, according to local news, he is expected to play. If that is so, he has a chance to work his way right back into the front of the Heisman race as Alabama host Joe Burrow and LSU.

We’ve already discussed this possible game of the year from Burrow’s perspective, but things are a little different for Tua. Alabama has dominated this series as of late winning the previous eight-games, including a 29-0 victory in Baton Rouge last season. Tua was solid in last year’s game but will need to be much better this time around, given how deadly the LSU offense has become. Plus, unlike the Burrow, Tua has yet to face a team the caliber of LSU, so he’s coming off an injury and will be thrown into an extremely high-pressure matchup. The pressure is not new to Tua, but the circumstance with this ankle doesn’t make this the ideal game to return on.

One thing Burrow and Tua do have in common is that neither opposing defense has seen anything near the level of their two offenses. LSU’s defense is 23rd in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense. However, they’ve only faced one high-powered offense this season, and it was Texas who racked up over 500 total yards, including over 400 through the air. They’ve certainly improved since week two, but Tua and the Alabama receivers present a ton of issues no matter what.

The Alabama passing game against this LSU secondary will be the most intriguing matchups within the game as there is first-round NFL talent all over these units.

The Heisman moment is writing itself with Tua coming back from injury, so if he can continue Alabama’s win streak over LSU their could be a change in the Heisman odds.

Justin Fields, Ohio State QB vs. Maryland

• 128-186, 1659 yards, 24 TDs
• 76 attempts, 319 yards, nine TDs

Justin Fields and Ohio State passed their biggest test of the season thus far with flying color a few weeks back beating up on Wisconsin 38-7. The stats don’t tell the full story of just how impressive Fields was against the Wisconsin defense as he showed incredible toughness and constantly extended plays. And in a rain-soaked game, he still managed three total touchdowns.

The forecast does not appear to be as wet this weekend, and the opponent is not nearly at the level of the Badgers as Ohio State plays Maryland.

After an impressive first two weeks of the season, things have turned in a hard way for the Terrapins as they’ve lost six of seven since. Their defense has not been good at all giving up 6.1 yards per play (97th) and 457 yards per game (104th), so this is a mismatch in every sense. Maryland is a team that is reeling, and this Ohio State offense has been punishing everyone they’ve faced this season.

Fields might not put up big numbers because this could be over long before the fourth quarter, but he’s scored at least three touchdowns in every game this season.

Chase Young, Ohio State DE vs. Maryland

• 13.5 sacks, 15.5 TFLs, and five forced fumbles

After destroying Wisconsin two weeks ago, Chase Young forced his way into the Heisman discussion. He leads the nation in sacks with 13.5 and is arguably the best player in college football regardless of position.

We know how difficult it is for a defensive player to get serious consideration. Still, Young is about as close to a legit candidate since Manti Te’o in terms of people willing to acknowledge his impact.

Fox’s Joel Klatt made a great analogy when talking about Young when he compared him to Barry Bonds in 2001. Young does not get very many opportunities for sacks, but when he does, he rarely misses the opportunity. That showed against Wisconsin as he lived in the backfield whenever he was not double-teamed. And that was against a Wisconsin offensive line that will put players into the NFL.

Young will now face a Maryland team that ranks 73rd in standard down sack rate and 98th in passing down sack rate.

Expect Young to be doubled team or possibly tripled teamed if need be. However, Ohio State did an excellent job moving Young along the line of scrimmage to free him up during the Wisconsin game. And when he gets that one on one chance, Maryland better get the ball out quickly.

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