As much as the folks in Tuscaloosa might want it to happen, the Alabama Crimson Tide has no business being in the College Football Playoff.
In 2011, Alabama and LSU played in the single most boring matchup between Top 5 teams since the advent of the forward pass. It was so close, that the BCS decided the world needed a rematch, and in that game, Alabama dropped a bomb on the Tigers, a game boring in its own right. This was not “The Game of the Century.”
What we learned today, though, is that Alabama is not a playoff team and they do not have the teams remaining on the schedule to elevate them to that level. And they will not get to play in the SEC Championship Game to give them a feather in their hat. Any argument that the Crimson Tide should be in the College Football Playoff takes some Finebaumian contortion.
For example, did you know that Alabama has played and beaten fewer FEI Top 50 teams than lowly Clemson? And Penn State? And Oregon? Even if they win out, they will get to where Penn State and Oregon are today.
There are absolutely no “buts” about this one. Tua’s ankle isn’t why Alabama gave up 46 points at home. His ankle isn’t why he fumbled the ball in the red zone. His ankle didn’t throw a pick right before the half. Alabama, the team, is the reason Alabama lost today. They started slow, lucked out when their punt returner got sling-shotted away from punt coverage for their first touchdown and then did their best to give the game away in the first half.
Alabama did not lead in this game. That they played at home.
It doesn’t matter than Alabama stormed back in the second half. Alabama can throw its hat into the “hasn’t beaten anyone” ring and hope that the world catches fire. Playoff teams don’t lose at home.
The reality is, Alabama’s defense was always a question mark. The world knew that Tua and Jeudy and Smith and Ruggs will score all they want. Najee Harris is a sentient steamroller with hands and sideline awareness. After watching this defense get worked (at home!) by LSU doesn’t engender confidence that they would be able to stop Ohio State or Clemson, who you’ll remember wrecked Alabama in the title game last year. The college game is high scoring, and it comes down to timely stops. Alabama could not, and cannot get them. Not against elite teams.
Right now, there are too many undefeated teams (good for you Minnesota!) for Alabama to be included in the College Football Playoff. There are also too many one-loss teams with more impressive records than Alabama to even think about allowing them into the Playoff. If Oregon wins out, they’ll have beaten Utah. The same but flipped for Utah. If Oklahoma wins out, they’ll have beaten (cringe) undefeated Baylor and Texas or maybe Kansas State in their conference championship. Those are three one-loss teams whose merits trump Alabama’s if they win out.
Does any of this matter?
Of course not. Despite Alabama having no “elite” wins and not championships, the SEC has so much clout that they might sneak their way into the College Football Playoff.
But that will be doing every other one-loss team, except Clemson if they drop a game, a huge disservice. It means that conference image means more than the actual strength of schedule. It means that Alabama gets by on its name, and not its resume. Alabama is an exciting offense with a mediocre defense. They are every other year’s Oklahoma.
Think about this, though. Alabama did not lead. At home. Is there another team for whom that is acceptable?
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