What needs to happen for Penn State to make College Football Playoff?

So the Penn State Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the season on the road to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Here’s how they can still make the CFP.

These things happen. When a pair of undefeated teams meet late in the season, someone has to succumb to defeat. And that’s exactly what happened on Saturday afternoon in Week 11 of the 2019 NCAA season. The No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions couldn’t get it done on the road vs. the No. 17 Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, falling 31-26.

This loss significantly impacts the College Football Playoff hierarchy, as the Nittany Lions were the last team to make the field in the first rankings of this season. Expect the undefeated Golden Gophers to climb up considerably from No. 17 with a huge signature win on the season. Minnesota may be the class of the Big Ten West, but can Penn State sill make the Playoff?

Like the Golden Gophers, the Nittany Lions still control their own destiny. There’s no room for error, but there is a way that Penn State can reach the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history this year; the Nittany Lions just can’t lose another ball game the rest of the way. Is that a realistic possibility, though?

Well, it’s not exactly an easy next three or four games for the Nittany Lions. They will have to host a bowl-eligible Indiana Hoosiers team that is having its best season since 1994. Penn State is better, but Indiana will be a very tough out for the Nittany Lions. After that, Penn State will have to play the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes in The Horseshoe for the right to win the Big Ten East.

If the Nittany Lions lose in Columbus, there is next to no chance that they’ll be in consideration to make the College Football Playoff as a two-loss, non-conference champion. So they have to beat Indiana in State College and then upset Ohio State in Columbus in back-to-back weeks. After that, the Nittany Lions can snooze past the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to get to 11-1 (8-1) on the year.

Because Minnesota plays in the other Big Ten division, this is about as good of a loss as Penn State can afford to have. If they win out, the Nittany Lions will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State and would represent the Big Ten East in the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis. Who would they face at Lucas Oil Stadium? Very likely Minnesota again.

Okay, the Golden Gophers still have three division games left at the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, as the atrocious Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston and hosting the archrival Wisconsin Badgers in Minneapolis. Iowa and Wisconsin play later today, so that game’s winner will be the only one that could realistically challenge the Golden Gophers to come out of the Big Ten West this year.

So let’s say the Nittany Lions win their next three games to reach Indianapolis? From there, they’ll have to beat the Big Ten West winner to make it into the College Football Playoff for the first time. Penn State would get in as a one-loss Big Ten Champion with wins over Iowa, the Michigan Wolverines, Indiana, Ohio State and would avenge its lone loss of the year on a neutral site.

Overall, it’s not very likely that Penn State will make the College Football Playoff because the Nittany Lions are probably not beating Ohio State in The Horseshoe. They could beat Minnesota in a neutral-site rematch for all the marbles, but the odds are against them to make it to Indianapolis to right a wrong made in the Twin Cities in the first place. Penn State is still alive, but only barely.

For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.