College Football Playoff chaos theory: Anarchy that will shake-up the status quo

You control your own destiny, as long as you’re a team of destiny

Baylor Bears: 9-0 (6-0)

How is this even happening? The Baylor Bears were a one-win team two years ago and now they have a good, but not a great chance of reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time school history.

The answer is pretty simple really: Matt Rhule is one of the greatest coaches in college football today. What he has done has been remarkable at Waco, reclaiming a dead program and making it relevant. But does Baylor have a realistic shot at getting into the Playoff? It’s not likely, but the Bears do control their own destiny.

Baylor is 9-0 (6-0) this season. If the Bears win out, which includes getting past the Oklahoma Sooners this weekend at home, plus a likely rematch with them in the Big 12 Championship, they’re getting in as an undefeated Big 12 champion. Baylor won’t be higher than a No. 3-seed, but you can’t deny a Power 5 champion that went 13-0 and keep them out of the Playoff.

As for if Baylor can lose a regular-season game and still get in, that’s probably not likely because the Bears don’t have the resume to overcome that defeat. If that regular-season loss is to Oklahoma, forget about it. But if Baylor beats the Sooners twice and loses to the Texas Longhorns, the Bears may have an outside shot at getting in as a one-loss conference champion, but that’s it.

Georgia Bulldogs: 8-1 (5-1)

The Georgia Bulldogs have the worst loss of any team still left in the College Football Playoff mix. Falling at home in double overtime to a terrible South Carolina Gamecocks team is a gross black eye, but one that Georgia has the opportunity to overcome. If the Dawgs win out, they are going to reach the College Playoff as a one-loss, Power 5 champion and there’s no way around it.

Georgia must win its next three regular-season games: at the Auburn Tigers, home vs. the Texas A&M Aggies and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Dawgs can still reach the SEC Championship if they were to drop either game to Auburn or Texas A&M, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Florida Gators, but having two losses won’t help them get in.

That being said, if there is any two-loss champion that could get in, it would be Georgia, as the Dawgs would have quality wins over Notre Dame, Florida and possibly Auburn if they were to win down on The Plains but stumble at home vs. the Aggies for whatever reason, but still beat the SEC West Champion in Atlanta. Now that would be pure unadulterated chaos. Could Georgia get in?

Georgia would need all sorts of dumb stuff to happen in the Big 12 and Pac-12 because the Big Ten Champion, an undefeated Clemson and very likely either LSU or Alabama would get in over the. For now, Georgia’s easiest path to reach the Playoff for the second time in three years is to win out. It’s not that easy, but neither is beating Georgia unless you’re South Carolina.

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 9-0 (6-0)

Row the damn boat! P.J. Fleck has transformed the Minnesota Golden Gophers from a team nobody cares about in the sleepy Big Ten West into a semi-legitimate national title contender. Minnesota was unproven until last week after beating Penn State at home to stay perfect and emerge as the clear frontrunner to reach Indianapolis as the Big Ten West champion.

The Gophers should reach the Big Ten Championship very easily, as long as they don’t lose two of their next three games and the second being to the Wisconsin Badgers. Minnesota has two road dates with the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Northwestern Wildcats before hosting rival Wisconsin in the season finale. If Minnesota doesn’t make it to Indianapolis, the damn boat sank.

Will an undefeated Big Ten Champion Gophers team make the College Football Playoff? Absolutely and probably as the No. 2-seed, as they will have beaten Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin and the winner of Ohio State vs. Penn State. That’s as good of a resume as you could hope to have coming out of the Big Ten West in any given season. But what if they drop a regular-season game?

If Minnesota loses to either Iowa or Wisconsin, maybe, but definitely not one-win Northwestern. Should a one-loss Gophers team beat Ohio State or Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, they’re still surely getting in. However, a one-loss non-champion Gophers team will be destined for the Rose Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl, as Minnesota won’t make it in as an at-large team.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 8-1 (5-1)

Penn State suffered its first loss of the season to Minnesota in Minneapolis last Saturday. It’s a loss that will sting for a while, but James Franklin’s team has to regroup. That’s because the Nittany Lions still control their own playoff destiny. Like Georgia, if they win out, they’re getting in. They’re in a better spot than one-loss teams like Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah and certainly Alabama.

The reason Penn State can feel somewhat good about its chances is that it could have two big games left on the schedule: Ohio State and the Big Ten Championship, likely in an opportunity to avenge its lone loss thus far against Minnesota. A one-loss Big Ten Champion Penn State team is getting in just like a one-loss SEC Champion Georgia team would. Too many good wins to overlook.

But unlike Georgia, it’s not as likely that the Nittany Lions will be getting to their conference championship. The reason is Penn State won’t be favored to beat an undefeated Ohio State team during the last quarter of the regular season. If Penn State beats Ohio State, the Nittany Lions become the new team to beat in the Big Ten, leapfrogging Minnesota in that regard.

But should Penn State lose to Ohio State in November, the Nittany Lions’ Playoff dreams are over. If they lose to Minnesota for a second time or maybe even a Wisconsin team in Indianapolis, their playoff dreams are over. Penn State has to win out and has to win the Big Ten Championship if it wants to go to the Fiesta Bowl or the Peach Bowl. At two losses, it’s only the New Year’s Six.