Wasn’t 2019 the year that the Texas Longhorns were supposed to be back? Well, they’re not and it is time to worry about Tom Herman being their savior?
Though the Texas Longhorns got a big win last Saturday against the Kansas State Wildcats, they were a made last-second field goal by Cameron Dicker the Kicker away from dropping its fourth game this season. Texas has already lost to the LSU Tigers, the Oklahoma Sooners and the TCU Horned Frogs. Should we begin to worry about the state of Tom Herman’s Texas program?
Looking ahead at the Longhorns’ next three Big 12 games, there are no easy outs. Texas has to play on the road against a well-coached Iowa State Cyclones team in Ames. Matt Campbell doesn’t have the on-field talent of Texas, but always has his team in games. The Cyclones never get blown out and are always a tough out at Jack Trice Stadium under their excellent head coach.
Should the Longhorns survive Iowa State up in Ames, it won’t get any easier. That’s because Texas will have to play the currently undefeated Baylor Bears on the road in Waco. Baylor is about to play its biggest game of the season, as it hosts the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Baylor could win or lose both of these games, but having them in McLane Stadium only helps.
Finally, Texas will be back in Austin for its regular-season finale against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Sure, Texas Tech is in its first year under Matt Wells, but we know how Red Raiders offenses can be. Texas will give up points and the Longhorns could drop its last conference game of the year in a barn-burning shootout to in-state rival Texas Tech.
Overall, we’ll be looking at a Texas team that will be lucky to get to 9-3 (7-2) this season. The Longhorns can still make it to the Big 12 Championship, but they will be the underdog to presumably the winner of Oklahoma vs. Baylor. It’s more likely that the game will be a rematch that went down in Waco between the Sooners and the Bears than having the Longhorns involved.
In truth, Texas will end up winning eight or nine games this year but will drop either four or five to round out its 13-game slate, which includes its holiday season bowl. We’re looking at the third straight year where Texas has lost at least four games annually under Herman. In his two years leading the AAC’s Houston Cougars, Herman lost only four games total. Put that in perspective.
So is Texas in terrible shape under Herman? Not really, it’s fine, but fine isn’t good enough for Texas football. The Longhorns should face archrival Oklahoma twice annually, once in Dallas in the Red River Rivalry and once in the Big 12 Championship. Texas should be contending for the College Football Playoff every season, making trips to the New Year’s Six every single January.
While the Longhorns made it to the Sugar Bowl last year and pushed around the Georgia Bulldogs, that was a four-loss Texas team and Georgia had zero interest playing in that bowl game after narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff. In a year where Texas could have made the national semifinal game in the Fiesta Bowl, we’re probably looking at the Alamo Bowl instead.
So what gives? Why is Texas not back yet? The program has talent because, well, it’s Texas and this is a Big 12 blue-blood if there ever was one. The biggest reason Texas isn’t back in 2019 is pretty simple: the Big 12 has a bunch of great coaches and Herman can’t just walk into Texas and win 11 games every year without blinking.
We’ve talked about the job Campbell has done at Iowa State. He might be on to bigger and better things in the coming years, but he’s made the Cyclones a top-four program in the Big 12 at a school that should be one of the three worst in the conference.
Baylor has a star coach in Matt Rhule, who won’t be in Waco for very long. As with Campbell, he could make it to the NFL as an elite program builder if the right opening becomes available. Of course, we know all about Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and the certain College Football Hall of Fame coach that is Gary Patterson at TCU. What happens if Les Miles gets the Kansas Jayhawks going?
The point is Herman has to play chess every week against some terrific Big 12 head coaches. There aren’t any dumb gym teachers running a program in this Power 5 conference. Talent may win in the first three quarters, but conditioning, mental toughness and great coaching will win in the fourth quarter. Herman has time, but the clock is ticking for him to make Texas great again.
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