How long can Minnesota realistically keep P.J. Fleck?

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have a hell of a head football coach in P.J. Fleck, but how long can Minnesota realistically keep him in Minneapolis?

It’s happening again. P.J. Fleck is rowing the boat in the Midwest, taking college football programs with underwhelming success to new heights. Fleck led the MAC’s Western Michigan Broncos to a 13-1 (8-0) season and a Cotton Bowl Classic berth in 2016. Now he’s got the Minnesota Golden Gophers at 9-0 (6-0) and potentially smelling roses, maybe even better than that.

Fleck was the architect on the Golden Gophers’ sidelines that led to Minnesota’s biggest win in decades over the visiting Penn State Nittany Lions last Saturday. Minnesota will surely have a double-digit winning season, probably wins the Big Ten West and has an outside shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. Once again, this is Minnesota football. This shouldn’t be happening.

But once again, Fleck is working his magic. He has made two programs at least temporarily nationally relevant, as he is poised to give the Twin Cities its greatest college football season since 1960. Fleck is one of the best young coaches in college football, but how long can Minnesota realistically keep him?

Fleck did sign a multi-year extension that will keep him as the Golden Gophers head coach through the 2026 campaign. It’s good that Minnesota got out ahead of this, as Fleck would surely be a candidate to rebuild struggling blue-blood programs like the Florida State Seminoles and the USC Trojans, or even the Arkansas Razorbacks.

However, some program could bring out the big bucks and change things. So will Minnesota be able to put its money where its mouth is if a Power 5 blue-blood wants to offer him over $7 million annually? That’s a lot of coin, but that’s how much a great college coach like Fleck might cost on the open market if two perennial Powers outside of Minnesota are bidding for him.

While the 38-year-old head coach may outgrow his Minnesota contract extension before it runs out, there is some reason the Gophers can believe he’d end up staying for longer. What you have to keep in mind is Fleck is from Illinois, having played wide receiver for the Northern Illinois Huskies before briefly playing in the NFL for the San Francisco 49ers.

Outside of one year on Greg Schiano’s 2012 Tampa Bay Buccaneers staff, Fleck has only coached in the Big Ten/MAC footprint. We can’t be sure if he’ll leave for a Power 5 job outside of the Big Ten, as he doesn’t have strong recruiting ties outside of the Midwest at this time. But is there a chance a Big Ten blue-blood could become available or an NFL team might take interest in him?

Those are the two things Golden Gophers fans must fear. If the Michigan Wolverines grew tired of Jim Harbaugh or if the Michigan State Spartans see Mark Dantonio retire or something, guess who would be near the top of both of their lists of strong head coaching candidates? That would be Fleck, who could channel his inner Dan Mullen and take a job promotion within the conference.

As for if the NFL could be in on Fleck, that seems a tad farfetched. Row the boat works well in Minneapolis, as it did previously in Kalamazoo, but do you think full-grown men with wives and kids are going to buy into Fleck’s metaphor for life? We can’t be so sure. However, elite program builders will always be intriguing for dysfunctional NFL teams who want to get it right.

When compared to the Baylor Bears’ Matt Rhule, another great up-and-coming coach who has won at a high level at two programs and is on the same career trajectory, it is more likely Rhule will leave Waco before Fleck will leave Minneapolis. Rhule isn’t from the Dallas-Ft. Worth area and Baylor might be the third-best team in the Big 12 once the Texas Longhorns are back.

So the chances Rhule leaves for a bigger Power 5 job or maybe even an NFL gig is more likely to happen first with him than Fleck. Frankly, there is also a chance Fleck is destined to be the greatest coach in Minnesota football since Bernie Bierman. He may want to be Minnesota’s version of Barry Alvarez, Hayden Fry or Bill Snyder, a coach who turned a loser into a contender.

With Fleck signing an extension earlier this month, the chances he’s with the Golden Gophers heading into the 2020s seems pretty good. That said, all it takes is one college booster or one eccentric NFL owner to think he’s their next guy and buy him out of his new Minnesota contract. Winning speaks volumes, but money also talks.

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