Early DraftKings college football quarterback picks November 16
Top Tier:
The status of Tua is something to keep an eye on, and truth be told, I wouldn’t play him anyway. He wasn’t 100% against LSU. This is the time for Alabama to rest him because they still have a shot at the playoffs. Tua’s numbers can’t compare to those of Anthony Gordon anyway because Gordon needs to play all four quarters for Washington State to have a chance to win. The same isn’t true for Tua at Alabama.
Given Gordon’s tougher matchup, I’m really liking Brock Purdy at home against Texas. The Texas defense is starting to get healthy, but they are still missing some pieces. We just saw Purdy outduel Hurts in Norman. I think he outduels Ehlinger in Ames too.
Middle Tier:
Wake’s defense isn’t very good, so I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around Trevor Lawrence being priced out of the upper tier. The slow start has hurt Lawrence’s average, but he has at least 24 DraftKings points in every game since Clemson’s week 6 bye and back to back games over 30. Lawrence may be the safest play out there.
Brady White can throw if he has to, but I don’t think he’ll have to. Sean Clifford is the safer pick in this price range because Penn State’s running game is still a work in progress. They will need to pass, and Clifford can deliver a game to rival that of Lawrence.
TCU’s defense is good, but it is also not what it used to be. Jett Duffey has turned in back to back games of more than 25 DraftKings points, but it was against the two worst teams in the conference. Still, Duffey gives you a boost with rushing yards, and he hasn’t turned the ball over since week 7. I like the way he’s trending and the price is right.
Bargain Shoppers:
Carter Stanley has had some bad games in his career, but perhaps none worse than last week against their arch rivals. Lost in Oklahoma State’s solid season is the fact that their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Stanley had turned in back to back games of over 35 DraftKings points before last week’s disaster, so there’s a ton of upside here.
If you’re the gambling type, you could throw Mac Jones out there at a very low price. If he starts, I will have him in every lineup. What’s the upside of playing him if Tua starts? Well, first of all, you would have to believe that this game would be a blowout, allowing the Tide to rest Tua. If he plays, they will get him as much rest as they can without putting the game in jeopardy. I would bet that Jones takes at all of the fourth quarter snaps if the Tide are up by 14 or more. That could be enough for him to hit value.
If you don’t feel like messing with Jones, there is a hidden gem at quarterback, and really, it’s a gift value pick. KJ Costello is very doubtful, which leaves Davis Mills as a starter against a poor Washington State defense for just $4,800. Don’t pass this up!