If Navy beats Notre Dame, will Brian Kelly be fired?

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a slight favorite over the Navy Midshipmen Saturday, but if the Irish lost, does that mean Brian Kelly will be fired?

It has been an interesting decade in South Bend with Brian Kelly leading the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. He’s easily the best coach Notre Dame has had since Lou Holtz, but his tenure leading the Golden Domers hasn’t been without controversy.

Notre Dame has played for a national championship and reached the College Football Playoff, but had two seasons’ worth of wins vacated, including the entire 2012 campaign where the Irish were undefeated heading into the national championship, only to get dominated by Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide.

While Notre Dame had another perfect regular season last year, resulting in their first trip to the College Football Playoff, they were again blown out on the national stage, this time by the eventual national champion Clemson Tigers in the Orange Bowl.

Flash forward to Week 12 and Notre Dame finds itself at 7-2 with losses in its two biggest games of the year: at the Georgia Bulldogs and at the Michigan Wolverines. Notre Dame’s best win is probably over the likely ACC Coastal champion Virginia Cavaliers. If the Irish fall at home Saturday to the Navy Midshipmen, does that mean Kelly gets fired?

A 9-3 season following a home loss to Navy, plus wins vs. the Boston College Eagles and at the rival Stanford Cardinal will do next to nothing to help Kelly’s case. Even when his team reached the Playoff last year, Kelly was arguably the crankiest coach in college football. He rarely smiles and has been beaten down by the tough job that Notre Dame is.

On paper, Notre Dame should go 9-3 every season. The Irish do recruit nationally and have the best TV deal of any program in the country with that sweet NBC contract. However, Notre Dame is in a cold part of the country, geographically isolated and is a Catholic university with strict academic standards. These are things SEC teams never worry about when building a program.

All that aside, the right coach should be able to win 10 games annually at Notre Dame and should contend for New Year’s Six bowls and shots at the College Football Playoff in the chance the Irish should go 12-0 during a regular-season slate. In short, Kelly has only achieved 10 wins four times in his Notre Dame tenure. Anything less than that this year may be seen as unacceptable.

But what does any of this have to do with losing to Navy? Well, the truth is Navy might be the second-best team Notre Dame plays this season, depending on how Georgia and Michigan’s season shakes out. At worst, this will be the third or fourth-best team they’ll play, depending on how you view Virginia and the Virginia Tech Hokies, the two teams likely to win the ACC Coastal.

Navy is a traditional rival of the Irish and one the Irish usually beat. This is a win the Irish need to build momentum heading into bowl season. A loss here will start a panic that Kelly needs to go at the end of the season. But should he get fired if he falls to Navy at home on Saturday?

What it really comes down to is who the Irish can get to replace Kelly. Would Urban Meyer be interested in the opening? If not, who could come to South Bend and do a great job? Would Matt Campbell or Matt Rhule be able to take what has worked for them in the Big 12 and ensure that the Irish win 10 games annually? Bob Stoops isn’t interested in the Florida State job but would he come out of retirement for Notre Dame?

In truth, it’s more likely Kelly resigns than for the Irish to fire him if Notre Dame were to go 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Michigan and Navy. Kelly might garner interest from the NFL. Perhaps a fresh start somewhere else and somewhere warm could work wonders?

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