Should Tua Tagovailoa bypass 2020 NFL Draft, return to Alabama?

Should Tua return to Alabama, does Penn State stand a chance vs. Ohio State and will it ever be this good again for Baylor and Minnesota? All those topics and more in this week’s Believe it or Not.

The unthinkable happened to Alabama for the second week in a row. No, they didn’t lose to middling Mississippi State, but they did lose starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for the rest of the season.

Now the question becomes, what should Tua do once his dislocated hip has healed? Return to Bama? Go ahead with (probable) plans to enter the NFL Draft?

These questions along with some other interesting questions surrounding this year’s College Football Playoff are the focus of fans, the media, and this week’s College Football Believe It Or Not.

Believe it or not, Tua Tagovailoa should bypass the 2020 NFL Draft and return to Alabama for his senior year

Schmidt: Not

Alabama fans should want to believe it, but I think it’s an extreme longshot. The season-ending dislocated hip Tua Tagovailoa suffered against Mississippi State was heartbreaking, and thankfully, Alabama said he is expected to make a full recovery.

I understand the inclination to speculate about what it means for his NFL Draft stock considering he was projected as the potential No. 1 team with the running theme of teams openly tanking for him. Maybe he falls out of the top spot because of the injury and because of the play of Joe Burrow. But I don’t think teams will be scared off to the point he’s still not drafted in the first half of the first round.

If the injury was such that he couldn’t work out for teams at the Combine in February or for teams before the draft in late April, he could slip out of the first entirely. At this point, we have no way of knowing because we write about football and didn’t get our medical degrees.

I think the risk of returning to school far outweighs the risk of entering the draft and possibly sliding a few slots. He’s not going to go back to Alabama to play for free and run the risk of another injury. He’s already fighting the injury-prone label so it’s in his best interest to be with an NFL organization who will pay him a guaranteed salary should a catastrophic injury happen again.

Collins: Not

This one is almost a no-brainer. Tua has nothing left to prove to NFL scouts and executives other than the ability to stay healthy (which has been his big bugaboo to date). He needs to take the time to completely heal all of his major and nagging injuries and get himself into the best playing shape of his career for this year’s NFL Combine.

We know Tua can make all the passes, we know Tua can run, we know Tua can read complex defenses and audible into successful plays. The only thing he’d get out of returning to Alabama is another shot at the Heisman, and a possible additional national championship ring.

Alabama fans may want it, but Tua doesn’t need it.

With the season Joe Burrow has had, Tua was probably going to be the second quarterback selected anyway, so his draft stock will show little — if any — drop unless he completely flops at the combine.

Do yourself a favor, Tua. Go get paid while you still can.

Believe it or not, Ohio State will beat Penn State by 21-plus points

Schmidt: Believe it

This represents the toughest test yet for Ohio State (and Penn State) who has cruised to a 10-0 record. Penn State has lost to Ohio State by one each of the last two years. In fact, the last three meetings have been decided by five total points, dating back to Penn State’s three-point win in 2016. The point is neither has been able to completely dominate the other. I think that’s going to change from The Shoe on Saturday.

The spread is hovering around 19.5 points and I think this is an easy cover for Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins and Ohio State. The big key will be the return of defensive end Chase Young from his two-game suspension by the NCAA. Look for him to have a pair of sacks and make life miserable for Sean Clifford all game long. Ohio State will win something like 42-17

Collins: Not

I’d say chances are Ohio State wins this game. Penn State’s secondary is too vulnerable and Justin Fields will have another superb day in this game – but 21 points or more? Not likely.

For all the snickering about Alabama’s strength of schedule this year, there should be at least a few chuckles about Ohio State’s. They’ve really yet to be tested by a quality team (and don’t even throw Cincinnati out there. Stop it). This will be the first time the Buckeyes’ defense will truly face a real challenge, and that sub-10-point-per game scoring defense will take a bit of a knock.

It will likely be Ohio State pulling away early in the game, with Penn State making a frantic comeback attempt in the second half that falls short due to not being able to make enough stops on defense.

Buckeyes by 12.

Believe it or not, Minnesota and Baylor will never be this good again

Schmidt: Believe it

Minnesota and Baylor entered the weekend undefeated but both suffered their first loss of the season. While the dreams of playoff appearances and conference championships go up in smoke, there is plenty to be proud of if you’re a fan of either program.

This is a season to remember and can propel a program to even greater heights moving forward. I’m less than optimistic that will happen at either Minnesota or Baylor because I don’t think P.J. Fleck or Matt Rhule will be coaching there much longer.

I know Fleck signed an extension earlier this month but those are worthless if he wants to leave for a bigger job. Rhule could have a few NFL teams interested with the rebuild and culture change he oversaw in Waco. The college football fan wants to see Fleck and Rhule stay at their schools and establish some roots and see if they can break through the glass ceilings at their programs. But I’m skeptical they will rebuff all the interested parties that will want them.

Collins: Not

Minnesota and Baylor are just getting started. They both made exceptional coaching hires that are now paying off, and the seasons they are having this year will only help with recruiting.

I’m not saying Minnesota will win the Big Ten in 2020 or that Baylor is about to unseat Oklahoma as the premier team in the Big 12, but they are going to be excellent teams who will string together some seasons of success.

Both P.J. Fleck and Matt Rhule will have their offers after this season, but both of them look extremely happy and comfortable in their current situations. I don’t see either of them abandoning ship with what they’ve begun to build.

Will they use big offers from other schools or the NFL as a wedge to get more money? Why not? They’re worth it and I think both Baylor and Minnesota will feel the same.

Believe it or not, Oklahoma should get in the playoff before the Pac-12 champion

Schmidt: Believe it

Oklahoma ranks ahead of both Oregon and Utah in the Sagarin ratings and SP+ and provided the Sooners win out, they should be in the College Football Playoff ahead of the Pac-12 champion. Oklahoma just spotted undefeated Baylor a 25-point lead before storming back to win by three. Oregon and Utah don’t have a win on that caliber. Oklahoma was practically toying with Baylor when Jalen Hurts took over and the Sooner defense blanked the Bears in the final two quarters.

Both Utah and Oregon have looked good to quite good in the Pac-12 this year, but I’d pick Oklahoma to win by more than a touchdown on a neutral field if they played either team. Oklahoma has the best player in Hurts, the best coach in Lincoln Riley and will have the best resume when the season ends. Now, whether that means they’re in, hinges on what happens elsewhere but if it’s Oklahoma or the Pac-12 champ, it’s an easy decision to go with Oklahoma.

Collins: Not

Quite simply, Oklahoma may be a better team than Utah, but they aren’t better than Oregon. If the Ducks win the Pac-12 — which they should — they should have the inside track to a playoff spot over the probably Big 12 champion Sooners.

Their schedules are fairly comparable, and both have great quarterbacks leading them. Both have had scares from teams they probably shouldn’t have, and both have blown out their share of opponents. And by the way, I don’t buy this “Oklahoma was toying with Baylor” nonsense. They were getting their lunch handed to them and it was only by a few miracle plays they were actually able to come back.

It might seem easy to argue either way, but in truth, the committee is going to look at one hard fact. Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State is a worse loss than an opening week, neutral field loss to Auburn by Oregon.

Once you put those losses side by side the only conclusion you can come to would be to rank Oregon (slightly) ahead of Oklahoma.

Believe it or not, Gus Malzahn isn’t that attractive of an option for Arkansas or Florida State

Schmidt: Not

Gus Malzahn isn’t exactly the second coming of Bill Walsh or Bear Bryant but he might be compared to Willie Taggart and Chad Morris. Look, Arkansas and Florida State could have had three kids in a trenchcoat as their head coach the last two seasons and won just as many games like those two before they were fired. Malzahn’s career 60-30 record in his seventh season at Auburn is pretty remarkable when you consider it coincided with Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty.

Further, the SEC is the toughest conference and the SEC West is the toughest division. When you factor in Auburn’s cross-division rivalry with Georgia who is also in the middle of their finest decade, it makes Malzahn’s record all the more impressive.

If I’m Arkansas, I’m giving Malzahn a blank check to run my program and give it some stability and respectability. If I’m Florida State and can’t get Bob Stoops out of retirement, I’m calling Malzahn to see if he wants to swap playing in the SEC for the ACC. He’ll take on Clemson but drops Alabama, Georgia and LSU. That may be a pretty fair trade because it’s only one guaranteed loss vs. three every year.

Collins: Believe it

Gus Malzahn might be able to come to Florida State or Arkansas and give some immediate relief. Goodness knows it wouldn’t take much to seem like a genius at Arkansas. But Malzahn isn’t the guy either of these programs want to go after.

Florida State has been one of the premier football programs in the nation for decades, and fans in Tallahassee expect ACC Championships and to at least be in the conversation for national titles.

During the first incarnation of Bobby Petrino at Arkansas, they were a national power. They were one of the teams in the SEC West nobody wanted to face, Brilliant football mind that he was, his personal demons derailed everything he had built in Fayetteville. The fact that the school opted to hire him again just two years after firing him is an indication that they wanted to get back to that level of respect.

Why does this matter? Because to get where these programs want to be you have to beat rivals, and you have to beat top-ranked teams.

Gus Malzahn has a pair of opponents that fit both bills – Georgia and Alabama. His record against the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide is a paltry 4-11 since taking over at Auburn in 2013, going 2-7 versus Georgia (including the 2017 SEC Championship Game) and 2-4 versus Alabama (with this year’s result still pending). That’s a .266 win percentage against their two biggest rivals who also happen to usually be highly-ranked teams.

But it gets worse. Malzahn’s record against Top 10 teams is 6-16, a .272 win percentage in the games that matter most. More importantly, three of those six wins came during his first season in 2013. Malzahn has a good offensive mind, but over the years the better teams have figured out his gimmick offense, and know precisely how to defend it.

If you want to win championships you have to win the big games. Malzahn clearly doesn’t do that. If Florida State and Arkansas are thinking long-term and want to get back to being in a position to win championships, they need to look past Gus Malzahn.

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