Meet Aaron Henry, a 3-and-D wing worth betting on

The 2020 NBA Draft class will have plenty of wing prospects that are great shooters or defenders. Aaron Henry is perhaps the best blend of the two.

The 2020 NBA Draft class has a deep wing crop with plenty of players who have NBA-ready skills. The two best wing prospects in the class, Deni Avdija and Isaac Okoro, both have excellent defensive skill sets, and there are several defense-first wings with first-round ratings, like Wendell Moore and Precious Achiuwa. There are elite athletes like Scottie Lewis; and there are great shooting prospects like Joe Weiskamp and Isaiah Joe. It looks like NBA teams that want wing specialists are in luck. However, all-around wing talents might be tough to come by. Moore isn’t a good finisher; Weiskamp and Joe are mediocre athletes and defenders, and Lewis hasn’t figured out how to harness his athleticism. Outside of Avdija and Okoro, there may not be any clear all-around wings in the class. Except, of course, for Aaron Henry.

Henry was an important piece of Michigan State’s 2019 Final Four run. The 6-foot-6 freshman wing entered the starting lineup midseason and was a supporting cast member while Matt McQuaid, Nick Ward, and Cassius Winston demanded most of the attention. But two games in the NCAA Tournament helped show what Henry could be in the future — a 20-point, eight-rebound, six-assist effort against LSU in the Sweet 16, followed by an 11-point effort against Texas Tech where he was perfect from the field and played effective, sound defense against current Minnesota Timberwolf Jarrett Culver.

Henry’s list of NBA skills is a long one, and while he’s not going to carry any significant offensive load, it’s pretty easy to graft him into a potential NBA role. That originates with his defensive play, which appears to be impactful in the same way that he will need it to be at the NBA level. Henry has good size to play the 3 at the NBA level, decent agility, and excellent length, which he uses to jump passing lanes and shut down the lane against drivers one-on-one. His work against Myles Powell in the final possession of Michigan State’s win over Seton Hall paints a good picture of how he’s able to use those physical skills to affect the game.

Henry’s flexibility is perhaps his best defensive trait. In addition to having good reaction time and the physical tools teams look for, he does a great job of contorting his body to contend drives without fouling, and he can change directions to contain spin moves and crossovers like few other wings in this class.

He adds to this elite anticipation that shows itself in an ability to routinely disrupt basic passes within the flow of the offense. He is strong in terms of positioning consistency, and his ability to tip passes and just generally deny the ball makes him an intriguing off-ball defender.

Henry has been one of the most disruptive defenders in college basketball this year, posting early steal and block rates of 4.0 and 7.4, respectively. While those numbers will surely normalize as the season goes on, it’s a good indicator of how disruptive Henry’s anticipation and length combination can be. His first three games have also demonstrated how versatile he could be — He defended Powell and Quincy McKnight for Seton Hall after spending much of the Kentucky game matched up against bigger forwards like Khalil Whitney and Nate Sestina. He probably isn’t a true point of attack defender in the way that a Matisse Thybulle projects to be — he still struggles to go around screens, getting hung up by poor footwork and relying on that incredible flexibility to recover — but it’s easy to see a variety of roles where Henry could be useful on the defensive end.

Offensively, it’s a similar story of efficiency and promise in multiple areas, with some granted outlier efficiency propelling things. Henry isn’t going to shoot like a Euroleague marksman (63/50/88 shooting splits so far) for a full season, but he certainly appears to have built on an efficient freshman season where he posted a 55.7 true shooting percentage. His outside shooting is limited to mostly just stationary spot-ups, but the mechanics of a smooth jumper are there, even if they have to get tighter and quicker.

Henry’s touch is the reason for his efficiency despite the needed development of his shot form. Henry exhibits excellent three-level touch — not just at the rim, where he’s shooting 77.8 percent after hitting 62.7 percent last year, but from the midrange and on spot-up 3s as well. That he’s able to post these efficient numbers despite struggling against contact from NBA-sized bigs and having a slow, somewhat mechanical shooting motion is a great sign for his future development potential, because it sets a reasonable baseline for his scoring as a useful complementary piece, and could create potential for a higher creation ceiling if his scoring profile improves. Touch is the most important skill for determining scoring efficiency on volume, and Henry’s touch appears to hold promise if the rest of his game comes around.

That reason for optimism is bolstered by Henry’s passing, which has been a very interesting use of Henry’s slight uptick in responsibility this year. Henry is a dynamic secondary creation passer, finding the easy pass and reading help against a scrambling defense well.

Henry’s effectiveness in downhill pick-and-rolls as a passer and finisher is promising, and he does have enough of a pull-up threat to at least make defenses respect it when he has the ball headed towards the rim. There’s a path to Aaron Henry, NBA secondary creator, in the mold of a Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler, or Josh Richardson-like progression.

Henry should be considered a lottery-level prospect in this year’s draft because his game offers a wide array of functional skills that can fit in a modern NBA system, and his skill set could develop into something with a much higher upside than he’s being given credit for. He probably won’t get that consideration for some time, given that he’s a relatively unheralded sophomore prospect, he’s not going to have a high offensive volume, and he doesn’t have the athletic profile of an Amar Sylla or a Precious Achiuwa. But in terms of likelihood to contribute to winning basketball, Henry is an easy player to bet on. He has the positive defensive traits in terms of understanding and executing defensive schemes to matter. He has the requisite touch to project offensive development. He plays efficiently on the offensive end. And he has the athletic traits to tie everything together and compete at a higher level of competition.

It’s still early in the season, and there’s a lot of time for prospects to separate themselves and prove that they’re worth betting on. But in terms of what we’ve already seen, I’d bet on Aaron Henry.