College football quarterback film study: Justin Herbert, Jordan Love flash upside

Breaking down the top college football quarterbacks with film study to look at this season’s performances from Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and more.

Week 12 brought us an unexpected hiccup as 2020’s top quarterback prospect, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, suffered a scary hip dislocation that’ll potentially end his collegiate career. The closing weeks were already going to be critical for the nation’s top quarterbacks in terms of finalizing their own stock and team’s standings, but now there’s a potential opening for 2020 NFL Draft hopefuls to move upwards.

This week’s slate brought several encouraging performances. Trevor Lawrence continued his dominance, and Joe Burrow is stacking monstrous stat lines weekly. Jalen Hurts led a comeback victory, and both Jordan Love and Justin Herbert showed off high-end upside in their respective games.

We’re also going to breakdown Jake Fromm‘s inconsistent outing against Auburn.

Remember, we’re not looking at the results of the games and throws as much as we are the process of these quarterbacks in order to project their play moving forward.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

There’s much we know about Tua Tagovailoa on the field as far as his absurd contributions to Alabama in his tenure. Barring a decision to go back to the Crimson Tide in 2020, Tua’s time with Nick Saban came to an end on the last throw of the half before he was set to be pulled. It’s no one’s fault; a mere consequence of risk that football brings.

Tagovailoa’s dislocated hip has drawn wild speculation, and no one truly knows what will happen from here. Initial diagnoses sound like he won’t see the field again until after the draft, so teams will put their faith into medicals when it comes to Tua. There’s encouraging signs though, such as his surgeon saying because of the quick action and surgery, he’s expected to avoid the issues Bo Jackson faced from his career-ending injury, per Laura Rutledge of ESPN.

If we take this to be prophetic, then Tua should still be a top-two quarterback in this coming class. The upside he offers over anyone else is clear, even his main competitor Joe Burrow. Tagovailoa is more physically gifted and possesses the same high-end mental processing that Burrow does.

Going “safe” with Justin Herbert or Jake Fromm, for example, due to fear with Tua could work out, but it isn’t advisable unless the medical diagnoses are that concerning. No other quarterback besides Burrow is clearly talented enough to reach MVP-caliber in the NFL, and if you’re taking a quarterback in the first round, that needs to be the expectation.

His standing in my historical catchable pass database is spectacular. His 2019 season puts him in direct company with No. 1 overall picks Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Cam Newton. His other company is first-rounders Teddy Bridgewater, Dwayne Haskins, Robert Griffin and Patrick Mahomes. The only non-injury bust (so far) in this range was Blake Bortles and two mid-rounders in Will Grier and Cody Kessler.

We’ll see what’s next for Tagovailoa and if he declares for the NFL or heads back to Tuscaloosa to prove his durability. I’d bet on the former.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Though there’s no question that Joe Burrow has performed the best week-to-week of any quarterback this season, to the king of college football is still Trevor Lawrence. He’s been on fire as the season has progressed, effortlessly picking apart teams with downfield precision and creating big plays. He has none of the physical limitations that Burrow sometimes faces while cleaning up the avoidable mistakes.

Lawrence wrecked a good Wake Forest team this week despite only attempting three passes beyond 20 yards. His intermediate precision was fantastic, striking a catchable ball on all five attempts and notching two touchdowns. Wake Forest was doomed for many reasons, but Lawrence’s repeated success pushed the Clemson offense into overdrive quickly to blow out the Demon Deacons.

We’ve seen Clemson do this song and dance before where they turn their afterburners on late in the season, and Lawrence has done just that since the North Carolina scare. This team is one of the best three in the nation and has the chance to repeat their title as long as Lawrence continues playing like this.

Joe Burrow, LSU

There’s always a weird game for even the best quarterback prospects. Joe Burrow has been magnificent this season and is still on pace to rank with Tua as an elite passer on the season. But his performance against Ole Miss was his sloppiest to date despite eclipsing 500 yards passing.

He had three interceptable passes, both under pressure and due to misreading the defense. He lucked into a dropped interception as well, saving him from a more criticized game. But it’s easier to overlook the mistakes when they haven’t been a constant issue, weren’t do to a physical limitation, and he made several stellar plays outside of the pocket to compensate.

There’s been talk about Burrow’s perceived arm strength issues, but I continue to believe there’s nothing keeping him from excelling as long as his mechanics don’t drop off. His 2018 season saw a less consistent passer in terms of accuracy, not arm strength, due to messy footwork. His upper body and lower body work in harmony now and he possesses elite accuracy to all levels.

Would I like to see more cross-field throws from the far hash to prove his velocity? Yes, because he’ll be asked to hit those at the next level more often. But his mind allows him to dice up opponents in the short game, and his athleticism and playmaking keep him as a dangerous downfield passer.

Justin Herbert, Oregon

Finally, a performance from Justin Herbert that directly showed his imprint on the outcome of the game. Herbert, who has struggled mightily with deep passing over the last two seasons, hit three perfect deep balls that went for touchdowns. His big arm finally paid off as he gauged the distance and arc as if he were a mathematician.

Many claim this Oregon system doesn’t fit Herbert, but I disagree. He’s comfortable under center where he can take deep drops off play fakes and have two designed receiving options. His processing is mitigated and he can rip passes that stretch the field.

His footwork and stride were more consistent this week on short and deep passes alike. The intermediate part of his game continues to be troublesome, as is his situational awareness. He had three interceptable passes, with the least offensive being the lone caught ball on a 4th and 10.

The upside of Herbert was on full display with his downfield ability and athleticism. But his aggressiveness is fleeting and often lacks sense when he tries to challenge passing windows. He’s only had three dropped interceptions on the season but some of that is due to the conservative play-calling that’s used to minimize his penchant for risks that he showed in last year’s spread scheme.

We’ll see if he can continue the upside plays. He has a great opportunity to get Oregon into the playoff and prove his value against Utah and potentially more great defenses.

Jordan Love, Utah State

Much of what I said about Justin Herbert can apply here to Jordan Love. His first half against Wyoming featured several strong throws that will easily top his highlight videos. He had a Mahomes-esque rollout bomb that was dropped and split Cover 2 defenders with a bullet for a touchdown.

But he also a pick-six and another interception that gave Wyoming a short field. His floor is as important to determine as his ceiling in case he doesn’t land in the exactly perfect situation at the next level. The range of his potential outcomes is greater than anyone else in this class.

So while his passing motion remains the prettiest in class and some of his best plays will tempt evaluators into justifying his bad decisions, his time on the whiteboard and ability to read defenses pre-snap will likely determine his NFL success. I have no idea whether those will turn into strengths for him, but NFL coaching or top-tier coaching via a graduate transfer would benefit his long-term outlook.

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Jake Fromm looked like he was about to have a breakout game against a quality Auburn defense as soon as he connected on a well-placed deep pass for a touchdown in the first quarter. But then things broke down for Fromm as soon as he started throwing beyond 10 yards. He had just three catchable passes on nine attempts past 10 yards in total.

It’s the second consecutive week where his intermediate accuracy has significantly dipped. Passing windows have shrunk and his passes die out closer to the catch point. These are massively risky throws at the next level as defenders will be faster and playing tighter coverage.

He’s not Ryan Finley with his arm strength but his footwork must improve to maximize his effectiveness and ability to reach his receiver on time. He doesn’t have the luxury of staying on his back foot and delivering a timely pass and that was evident on several third downs this week. Just six of his 11 third-down attempts were catchable, and his struggles in situational play continue to mount.

I don’t know why anyone would consider Fromm in the first round at this point. He’s a solid option in college, but it’s clear that Georgia picked incorrectly when opting for Fromm over Justin Fields. Dynamic quarterbacks are the wave in the NFL, not game managers.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

The early part of the Baylor game looked eerily similar to the second half of the previous game against Iowa State. Jalen Hurts started the game roughly, including a bad interception where he telegraphed a deep comeback route on third down. The score swelled to 28-3 quickly before the legendary comeback commenced.

Things got back on track for Hurts around the nine-minute mark in the second quarter. His mental processing is still his biggest question mark, and separating him from this scheme is difficult. But his physical talent allowed him to deal with a barrage of pressure and create time to make plays.

His downfield passing was unusually off as he sailed three of four passes beyond 20 yards but his underneath throws were tremendously improved. He dominated Baylor with quick-hitters, going 16-of-19 from 0-10 yards, and making them pay when he rolled to the right outside of the pocket. His ability to flick the ball to a receiver and maintain accuracy near the red zone paid off handsomely with four scores in the red zone.

Hurts isn’t a perfect prospect but he’s able to create more opportunities for the offense in ways that others in this class can’t. I don’t know how to value that yet, but I’d rather give him the chance to become a franchise guy over Fromm, at the very least.

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