Which first-time Hall of Fame candidates have the best chance at Cooperstown in 2020?

The next-best candidates

Looking at the rest of the field, there are no other first-time locks or even candidates that might be considered “likely” to gain Hall of Fame election. However, there are a few candidates who do have a decent case.

Bobby Abreu

Of all the first-time candidates, Bobby Abreu has the second-highest career WAR at 60.0 (Derek Jeter’s is at 72.4). That’s actually higher than Hall of Famers Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza, and Vladimir Guerrero. For that reason, Abreu probably has the best chance after Jeter of getting in among first-timers.

Abreu was a very good player for a long time. He’s a .291 career hitter with 2,470 hits, while he drove in at least 100 runs seven times. He also has 400 career stolen bases. His career OPS is .870, which is significantly higher than Jeter’s at .817 (although Jeter’s candidacy is based mainly on his all-around ability as a hitter rather than his raw power numbers).

Despite that high-level longevity, Abreu was never quite an elite player. His highest MVP finish was 12th, in 2009. He only made the All-Star team twice. And he only won one Gold Glove Award and one Silver Slugger Award. Abreu had a great career, but he didn’t have the dominance that is required of a Hall of Famer, so it’s hard to see him getting in.

Jason Giambi

Even though Abreu has Jason Giambi beat in career WAR – Giambi’s is at 50.5 – Giambi will likely get at least almost as much consideration for election because he did have a stretch in which he was dominant. Giambi had three straight top-five finishes in MVP voting from 2000 to 2002, including winning the award in 2000. Each of those years, he had an OPS well over 1.000.

If it counts for anything, Giambi was also a key figure of the Moneyball era for the Oakland Athletics. Not only was he a decent hitter and hit for power, but he also drew lots of walks, leading the league four times. His career OPS is a solid .916.

Yet Giambi certainly has an uphill climb to get in, as the traditional career numbers aren’t quite there. Playing in an explosive offensive era, he needed to get to 500 home runs, and he didn’t even come close at 440. Also, his ability as a pure hitter tailed off dramatically after his peak years, and he only ended up with 2,010 career hits. Players with a 50 WAR usually don’t get in, so it’s hard to see Giambi gaining election.

Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee is the leading pitching candidate among first-timers this year, and for that reason, he’s at least worth bringing up here. Lee had some great seasons: He was an All-Star four times and finished in the top seven in Cy Young Award voting five times, including winning the award in 2008. His career ERA was a solid 3.52.

The career numbers, however, aren’t there. Even though the win statistic has come to mean less and less over time, it’s hard to see a pitcher with just 143 of them getting into the Hall of Fame. Lee just didn’t last long enough in the league, with ten full seasons under his belt. Had he been able to hold on and pitch as well as he did for another three years or so, he’d have a much stronger case.