DraftKings NBA picks November 20: My name is Luka

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DraftKings NBA
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Luka Doncic ($10,400): Yeah, the salary is high, but I wouldn’t be a bit shocked if Luka outscored everyone else on the slate. The Warriors blew the doors off of Memphis last night, but Dallas is not Memphis. The Warriors are too beaten up to rest anyone and they are going to be run ragged here. The blowout potential worries me some, but Luka may have a triple double in 30 minutes. That’s how hot he is right now.

Trae Young ($9,400): Trae is carrying the Hawks with Collins out, but that also limits his assists and rebounds if he’s shooting all the time. For whatever reason, the Bucks aren’t defending the perimeter very well. That’s going to give Trae a bunch of open looks. If he knocks them down, 60 DraftKings points in a real possibility. He did it twice last week.

Russell Westbrook ($8,600): Russ has played 12 games against Murray in his career, and he is averaging a triple double against him. Not against Denver, but solely against Murray! Granted, much of that time Russ was a one man gang, but given Denver’s stout defense on this wings, this feels like a game where Harden only hits 50 and Russ goes for more.

Honorable Mention:

Ben Simmons ($8,000): Simmons’ value isn’t in his ability to hit shots, so I don’t care much about the Knicks’ good perimeter defense. Simmons gets value in his exceptional rebounding ability for a guard and his ability to create for others. The Knicks don’t know anything about that. Simmons could be a sneaky play in the middle tier if you are going for a more balanced build.

Jamal Murray ($7,500): This is a good spot for Murray in what is essentially a track meet with a ball. As we saw on Monday, Murray is capable of huge numbers. Barton is presumably back to full strength though, so I think that takes a lot of chances away from Murray. The tempo of this game should give them back though, at least for one night.

Kendrick Nunn ($6,100): Winslow is going to miss at least one more game, so that means at least one more start for Nunn. He has racked up 110.5 DraftKings points in the three games with Winslow out. That’s 6x value. I’ll take it!

Dark Horse:

Goran Dragic ($5,500): Some people hate playing backups because of the lack of upside, but does anyone remember what Tyler Johnson did off the bench for the Heat last year? That’s Dragic this year, except Dragic is more consistent. He’s going to get good run and plenty of opportunities with the second unit. And the price is still low enough that Dragic routinely clears 6x value.

Markelle Fultz ($4,400): I don’t usually make it a point to run guards against Toronto, but I’ll make an exception for a few reason. One, MCW is out, which opens up some of the logjam at point. Two, Augustin is merely a placeholder. That becomes more and more obvious every time he takes the court. Finally, Fultz has 52.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. That’s a really strong return for the price.

Bryn Forbes ($4,300): Some minutes are going to open up with White out. It would seem to me that Forbes would get first crack at them, but Patty Mills could cut into these as well. Game flow will likely determine who gets the bulk of those minutes, but so far this year it has been Forbes. It’s a calculated risk, but one worth taking.