What happens to College Football Playoff rankings if Ohio State loses to Penn State?

If Ohio State loses to Penn State, their national championship hopes will take a huge hit, but are their College Football Playoff hopes dead?

The surest way for Ohio State football to guarantee itself a spot in the playoff is to go undefeated. When they don’t go undefeated, their national championship hopes are left to a 13-person judgment call.

Although Ohio State had very talented and deserving teams in 2017 and 2018, they were on the wrong end of that judgment call both times. The Buckeyes should leave no doubt in the committee’s mind this time, but what would happen if they lost to Penn State Saturday?

First, Penn State would put themselves in the driver’s seat for a Big Ten championship AND a playoff spot. If Penn State wins out they will be 12-1, which would include a win at Ohio State and a Big Ten championship. If Minnesota wins out, they will also be 12-1 with a Big Ten championship.

The committee would put the 12-1 Big Ten champions in the playoff this time.

Then there’s LSU and Georgia. The remaining teams on their schedules cannot be overlooked but they will be favored in each one. Assuming neither team loses between now and the SEC championship, LSU or Georgia is going to make the playoff.

Clemson has South Carolina and the ACC championship game left. South Carolina did upset UGA in Athens earlier this year so they can’t be overlooked but Clemson will be favored to win that one. The ACC championship game is a lot easier than it sounds, so Clemson should finish undefeated and in the playoff.

That leaves one spot…

Assuming Utah and Oregon win out on their way to Santa Clara, the Pac-12 championship game would pit two one-loss teams against each other. Utah or Oregon would finish the season with only one loss and a Pac-12 championship under their belt.

Don’t count out Oklahoma either. If the committee is forced to choose between one-loss conference champions in Oklahoma and Utah or Oregon, Ohio State has no hope. The committee allegedly puts some value on conference championships and in this scenario Ohio State would not have a conference championship.

So all in all, if the Nittany Lions win this weekend, Ohio State’s playoff hopes are mostly dead.

At that point, the Buckeyes’ best bet would be for a couple of two-loss teams to win their respective conference championships. A one-loss non-champion has as much of a chance, if not better, to make the playoff as a two-loss champion. It has happened for Ohio State before.

The committee would then be forced to compare the Buckeyes’ one-loss record with Alabama’s one-loss record and a couple of conference champions’ two-loss records. Also, if Clemson loses one game, that may be enough to eliminate the Tigers given the rough year the ACC is having.

Ohio State has been impressive all season, dominating opponent after opponent. There is a good chance the committee gives them the benefit of the doubt if they are comparable with other teams in the running. But unfortunately, if the other one-loss teams have conference championships to their name, the Buckeyes won’t be comparable.

Of course, the Buckeyes don’t need to be concerned if they just take care of business their next three games. But if they lose to Penn State could they still make the playoff? Yes, but a lot would need to happen. Chaos, basically.

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