The Oregon Ducks falling to the Arizona State Sun Devils kicks the door wide open for the Alabama Crimson Tide to reach the College Football Playoff.
It was bound to happen. At least a few of the 11 teams still alive for the College Football Playoff would eliminate themselves before Rivalry Weekend. Penn State and Oregon did that to shake up the bowl projections heading into the final week of the regular season.
Penn State’s road loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes wasn’t shameful, but it is Penn State’s second Big Ten defeat of the year, as they fell to the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis a few weeks ago. Ohio State clinched a berth to the Big Ten Championship, where they will face the winner of the huge rivalry game between the Wisconsin Badgers and Minnesota.
Oregon’s loss was significantly more shocking. The Ducks lost for the second time this season and for the first time in Pac-12 play. They couldn’t hold off the Arizona State Sun Devils down in Tempe. With a neutral-site loss to the Auburn Tigers in Arlington, the best the Ducks can do is hope for a Rose Bowl nod.
What these losses do is open the door for teams like the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners to reach the College Football Playoff. Alabama would have to do so as an at-large team, while Oklahoma would have to beat Baylor for the second time this season, this time in the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington.
With two huge shakeups to the New Year’s Six bowl projections, here is what they look like heading into Rivalry Weekend in Week 14.
College Football Playoff
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ, Saturday, Dec. 28)
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-0) vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Ohio State will be the new No. 1 seed as an undefeated Power 5 champion. Beating Penn State, the Michigan Wolverines and either Minnesota or Wisconsin in succession will be enough to get the Buckeyes the No. 1 spot, which they would opt to play in the Fiesta Bowl. Sneaking in at No. 4 would, of course, be Alabama, whose only loss would be to the LSU Tigers on the season.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA, Saturday, Dec. 28)
No. 2 LSU Tigers (13-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers (13-0)
LSU would get the No. 2 seed as an undefeated Power 5 Champion. They will luck out in that they wouldn’t have to play in Arizona and would get back-to-back games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Meeting them in the Peach Bowl would be the undefeated Power 5 Champion Clemson Tigers, who will have cakewalked their way through the joke that is the ACC in 2019.
New Year’s Six
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, Saturday, Dec. 28)
Memphis Tigers (12-1) vs. Michigan Wolverines (9-3)
The American’s Memphis Tigers will be the Group of 5 representatives in the New Year’s Six. Their only loss would have been by two points to the Temple Owls over in Philadelphia. Meeting them in Arlington will be Michigan, a team that is playing very well right now and would get the last at-large spot in the New Year’s Six, despite being a three-loss, non-champion.
Capital One Orange Bowl (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL, Monday, Dec. 30)
Virginia Cavaliers (9-4) vs. Florida Gators (10-2)
Should the Virginia Cavaliers win the Commonwealth Cup, the Hoos will be ranked heading into their certain loss at the hands of Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. If they stick in the top-25, they’ll represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl. Meeting them will be a two-loss, non-champion Florida Gators team, who won’t have to travel far from Gainesville to get there.
Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual (Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA, Wednesday, Jan. 1)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-2) vs. Utah Utes (12-1)
Minnesota would edge out Penn State as the team taking the Big Ten’s spot in the Rose Bowl after Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff. Having that 13th data point and the head-to-head victory gives the Gophers the head up over the Nittany Lions. Meeting them in Pasadena will be the Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes, who beat a reeling Oregon team in Santa Clara to get there.
Allstate Sugar Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA, Wednesday, Jan. 1)
Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1)
The Sugar Bowl will be the Big 12 vs. the SEC. Since two SEC teams will have made the College Football Playoff in LSU and Alabama, a two-loss SEC East Georgia Bulldogs team will gladly return to New Orleans to right a wrong from a year ago to the Texas Longhorns. Disappointed that they didn’t make the Playoff, they will face the Big 12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners.
There are a few other teams to keep an eye on for potential New Year’s Six bowl nods. If Auburn beats Alabama, the Tigers might have a shot as a three-loss, non-champion. The Virginia Tech Hokies could take Virginia’s spot in the Orange Bowl. The Baylor Bears could play in the Cotton Bowl or the Sugar Bowl. Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin and Cincinnati all have a shot, too.
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