Early DraftKings college football quarterback picks November 30
Top Tier:
Ian Book has been on a roll lately, and I doubt the Stanford defense can do much to stop him. The Cardinal have allowed 281.7 passing yards per game this year. Book has eight passing touchdowns (to no interceptions) over the last two games. He has not been under 28 DraftKings points in the last four games. If you’re going to pay up, Book is worth it.
Trevor Lawrence is starting to get hot at the right time. He hasn’t thrown an interception since week 8 against Louisville and hasn’t been under 20 DraftKings points since week 4 against Charlotte. This isn’t going to be a blowout. I expect South Carolina to keep it close. The South Carolina defense is good, so I’m nervous to pay this price here.
Syracuse’s defense has been awful with the exception of the Duke game. Aside from that, they haven’t stopped anyone. Even though Surratt is still out and Washington is doubtful, Jamie Newman is still putting up big numbers with the exception of the Clemson game. Syracuse’s run defense is a lot worse than the pass defense and Newman can wreck teams with his legs too. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the highest scoring player on the slate.
Despite the loss to Arizona last week, Justin Herbert still put up good numbers. Even if Oregon State wins, I still expect good numbers from Herbert. I just don’t know if he will do enough to keep up with Newman or others around his price.
Middle Tier:
Unfortunately, DraftKings wised up and put Lynn Bowden as a quarterback. Now we have to think about this a little. Bowden doesn’t throw many passes, so we are banking on him doing damage as a runner. That he has done. Bowden has run for at least 100 yards in six straight games, or pretty much as long as he has been a quarterback.
I like what Holton Ahlers and the East Carolina offense have done to close the season, but Tulsa’s defense has been nasty of late. The price isn’t really high, but it’s high enough to give me pause before using him. I think I like Bowden better in this price range, but I still think Ahlers is going to throw for at least 300 again, so he’s at least worth a look.
For as bad as Syracuse’s pass defense is, Wake has got to be nearly as bad. Tommy DeVito hasn’t been all that consistent, but against a poor pass defense he is at least worth a look. I wouldn’t fade any of the top quarterbacks for DeVito, but he’s in play as a superflex option.
Bargain Shoppers:
Justin McMillan’s ability to run raises his floor. While the SMU defense is improved over last year, they still have issues. Being that McMillan can beat you with his arm or his legs, he’s a strong option in this price range.
I know Notre Dame has a good defense, but Davis Mills has thrown for over 290 yards in each of his last three starts. Costello wont even be in uniform for this one and we all know how bad West was. This is going to be Mills’ game, and I’m willing to take the risk, even against this defense.
Zach Smith is the king of empty 300 yard games. He’s super cheap, but that’s because Smith hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game since week 6 against SMU. He’s either had 1 or zero in every game since. There risk with Smith, but against this East Carolina defense he could go for more than one touchdown again. He’s due.