Does Big 12 champion deserve final College Football Playoff spot over Utah?

Believe it or not, Alabama’s offensive era is over, Florida State isn’t the best job, Oklahoma deserves the last playoff spot and Wisconsin has a shot vs. Ohio State.

While much of the college football world is busy celebrating the fall of Alabama from the College Football Playoff hopefuls, a few other fanbases are now cheering sections for LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

What’s to come during championship week and how will the Tide react to their first-ever omission from the College Football Playoff? FanSided college football experts Patrick Schmidt and Michael Collins have some answers for you in this week’s College Football Believe it or Not.

Believe it or not, Alabama’s offensive era is over

Schmidt: Not

Watching Alabama the last two years was a departure from what we’ve seen from Alabama under Nick Saban. Instead of relying on a punishing 3-4 defense that can rush the passer from all levels and a lockdown secondary and a power run game to take the pressure off a game-manager quarterback, Alabama let Tua Tagovailoa throw it all over the field.

Alabama smashed practically all their team and individual offensive records and looked like Tua would have a Heisman or two if not for injuries derailing that dream. Despite all of Alabama’s offensive firepower the last two years, it hasn’t delivered the national championships playing great defense and a ground control offense did.

But Alabama didn’t lose the national championship or lose the SEC this year because of the offense. You can have a great offense and a great defense at the same time as we’re seeing this year from Ohio State and Clemson, especially.

Alabama definitely has to get better defensively after they were vulnerable all year due to injuries, youth and just not being as good as they were in the past. They don’t need to sacrifice high-powered offenses to fix the defense. Sure, it changes the game flow if you have an offense that can score in less than two minutes and the defense doesn’t get to rest as long. But Alabama isn’t going to try scoring fewer points anytime soon to become a murder-ball team again.

If you want that, go watch Georgia.

With five-star recruit Bryce Young from Mater Dei High School in California coming to Tuscaloosa next year, he’ll be counted on doing a lot of the same things Tua did. He’s one of the more prolific and accomplished high school quarterbacks who could be the next Kyler Murray.

The offensive era at Alabama isn’t coming to an end.

Collins: Believe it

It’s not going to be lost on Alabama head coach Nick Saban what has happened since he reluctantly moved towards a more offensive-minded approach. While trying to keep up with the avant-garde in the sport, Alabama has lost four big games to ranked teams (including two national championship games) and did so scoring an average of 33 points per game.

In past seasons, that would have been a two-touchdown cushion for Bama.

The Tide may have some impressive offensive talent coming in, but Nick Saban is, if nothing else, stubborn. Watch for him to return the focus to the trenches and the defense. Alabama will get back to what brought them and Saban success for many years – running the ball effectively, controlling the clock and playing suffocating defense.

There will likely be some staff shakeups, and a few growing pains during this offseason, but be prepared for boring old Alabama football, and to see the Crimson Tide play with a lot of physical intensity and discipline in 2020.

Jermaine Funnymaine Johnson will be happy to see Bama “run da bawl” again.

Believe it or not, Florida State is not the best job on the market

Schmidt: Believe it

It’s been a tough weekend for college coaches with firings coming down across the country. USC head coach Clay Helton has survived the cuts, at least for now, but Florida State, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Boston College are among the Power 5 jobs with openings.

Historically speaking, Florida State is the biggest and best job on the market. Any coach would be lucky to be offered the Seminoles job. The tradition of winning, the support from the fans and community and the recruiting imprint are massive advantages when it comes to building a program of sustained success.

It also terrifies me because of the expectations for whoever is the coach of Florida State and why it’s not the best job on the market. Clemson is the juggernaut in the ACC and has such a stranglehold on their position of power, I think it’s going to be difficult for a No. 2 team to emerge in the division unless Dabo Swinney retires or replaces a retiring Nick Saban at Alabama. In short, that’s not happening anytime soon.

National championships are expected at Florida State and that’s their right as fans based on the four decades of dominance under Bobby Bowden and a return to the top of the mountain under Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston only a few years ago.

But things change quickly in college football and the last two years under Willie Taggart has me thinking it’s going to be another two-four years before Florida State is contending for nine-plus wins. That leads me to say the next coach could come in and go 7-5, 7-5, 8-4 and 8-4 the next four years and it wouldn’t be good enough to satisfy the fan hunger for a winner. It would certainly be a step in the right direction from Taggart, but still short of where they want to be.

That’s why I think a place like Arkansas, Missouri or Ole Miss provides opportunities for a coach to provide stability, deliver a fresh approach and then worry about wins and losses. Coaches can come into these programs and get a year or two (as long as it’s not Chad Morris or Willie Taggart bad) and grow into the job.

Winning six games and going to a bowl game would be huge wins for Arkansas and Ole Miss right now. Missouri jumping back into the eight-win range and occasionally win 10 games every five years or so would be huge wins for those coaches. And it comes without all the stress and pressure that Florida State would present. FSU is the best opportunity but it’s not going to be the best job for a lot of candidates.

Collins: Not

Is this really even a question? Unless USC relieves Clay Helton of his duties, Florida State is clearly the best job available. If you’re a coach looking for the best opportunity to win, what are your other alternatives?

Arkansas? Ole Miss? USF? Missouri? Boston College? They all pale in comparison to what Florida State has to offer. Taking the FSU job comes with a lot of pressure but also with a lot of opportunities those other jobs can’t offer.

The state of Florida is one of the two best recruiting hunting grounds in the nation, and certainly, even after a couple of subpar seasons, there are a lot of highly-ranked prospects who would love to come to Tallahassee. The facilities at Florida State are also vastly superior to the other schools with open jobs.

If you want to work your way into a College Football Playoff spot, Florida State is also the obvious choice. Taking the USF job would be a dead-end for that hope playing in the American. Take the Arkansas, Missouri or Ole Miss jobs, and you’re having to compete and attempt to pass Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Florida to even hope to catch a whiff of the playoff discussion.

But in the ACC? Just figure out how to match up with Clemson (not easy, but still attainable) and you will get to the playoff.

Will it be an easy task to rebuild what Jimbo Fisher’s sudden exit and the bad hire of Willie Taggart tore apart? Not at all, but it’s definitely the best job out there.

Believe it or not, Joe Burrow won’t be MVP of SEC Championship Game

Schmidt: Not

Joe Burrow is the best quarterback in the nation and the best player if you don’t think Chase Young holds that distinction. He’ll definitely be the best player on the field in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game between LSU and Georgia. I think LSU is going to win and I think Burrow is going to be the reason they win with 300-plus yards and at least three touchdowns. He will be the MVP.

Collins: Believe it

When Georgia lost to South Carolina, everyone — and I mean everyone — said to put a fork in the Bulldogs, because they were done. Dan Orlovsky, Brian Jones, Randy Cross, Rick Neuheisel, and even Lee Corso threw shade at Georgia and wrote them off.

And what has Georgia done since then? Beat. Everyone. Was it always pretty? No, not by a longshot, but Kirby Smart is doing what he learned under the tutelage of Nick Saban. He’s playing ugly, smashmouth football and beating down the opposition.

Georgia’s defense is elite — extremely elite — and Burrow will face the toughest test he has all season and will come up just short. I’ll give you two possible MVPs for this game outside of Joe Burrow. Georgia defensive back J.R. Reed and kicker Rodrigo Blankenship.

Believe it or not, Oklahoma deserves the fourth spot in the playoff

Schmidt: Believe it

First, I’m glad Alabama won’t be in the playoff this year and either the Pac-12 or Big 12 will get a chance to represent after both conferences were left for dead at different points earlier this year.

The biggest debate the playoff committee has on their hands provided Georgia doesn’t upset LSU, is what to do with Utah and the BIg 12 champion on Selection Sunday. Utah is ahead of both Oklahoma and Baylor but that doesn’t mean they should be after Championship Weekend.

If Oklahoma beats Baylor for a second time this year, to give the Bears their only two losses, I think that gives Utah two wins that are better than the Utes’ best win, which would be vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. I think Oregon losing to Arizona State really hurt Utah’s potential to stay ahead of the Big 12. Beating a two-loss Oregon won’t be as impressive as beating a one-loss team.

Oklahoma has a better resume but may not pass the eye test in the same way that Utah does. Kyle Whittingham’s team has been dominant on both sides and winning in blowout fashion while the Sooners have had to sweat out a few fourth quarters in the last month.

That said, as long as Oklahoma wins in a controlling manner vs. Baylor, I think they’ll be in.

Collins: Not (probably)

Does Oklahoma deserve the last playoff spot? There’s a lot of “ifs” involved.

If Oklahoma manages to beat a very good Baylor team for the second time in a season, and if Oregon manages to take down a Utah team who can out-physical them in every aspect of the game, and if LSU manages to hold down Georgia and win the SEC Championship, then, and only then, would Oklahoma deserve that last playoff spot.

The only other way Oklahoma gets in is if (hahaha) Virginia pulls the upset of the year and beats Clemson.

Beyond that, nope. It belongs to Utah or Georgia.

Believe it or not, Wisconsin has a blueprint to beat Ohio State

Schmidt: Believe it

In another rematch from the regular season, Wisconsin gets a chance to avenge their 38-7 loss in late October and are hoping for different results this time around. Wisconsin will be watching The Game to see what Michigan was able to do vs. Ohio State when they were able to move the ball and score with confidence in the first and fourth quarters.

There is a blueprint for the Badgers to follow in what plays and formations they use, which players they try to attack and how to block Chase Young. Michigan somehow made Young look somewhat human which no one else has done this year. Wisconsin has to follow that blueprint and hope they have the personnel to execute that plan.

They don’t quite have a blueprint to slow the Ohio State offense because J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields have feasted on every defense they’ve seen. But if Wisconsin is going to pull off the upset, they’ll need to use Jonathan Taylor to keep the Buckeye offense on the sideline and the Badger defense rested. If Wisconsin can block Young, they can give Taylor the room he needs to operate. The problem is Young lived in Wisconsin’s backfield in the first game.

I’m not calling for a Wisconsin win, but they have a blueprint and a plan they can use to test Ohio State unlike anyone has this year.

Collins: Not

I’ve been pounding the Ohio State upset drum all season. Every time I see a team who I think has the right combination to put the Buckeyes on the mat, Ryan Day’s team manages to rise to a new level.

There is no way Ohio State should have been able to shut out Cincinnati, or roll up 38 points on Wisconsin’s defense, or out-muscle Penn State, or hang half-a-hundred on Michigan.

But they did.

I’m not falling into this trap again. Ohio State exposed Wisconsin once this season, and as hard as it is to beat the same team twice, the Badgers simply don’t have the firepower to match up with the Buckeyes. Taylor can’t do it alone, and once Ohio State removes him from the equation (as they did in October) it’s a done deal.

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