College basketball mid-major power rankings – Top 25: Dayton flying to the top

Mid-major Top 25 college basketball rankings after Feast Week. Dayton takes the top spot over strong contenders from the west coast: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Utah State.

Welcome back to the Cinderella Watch! For the blue bloods, non-conference play can seem like a fun but trivial exercise. Games are played in NBA arenas or on some tropical island, coaches wear casual polos and players try to pump their draft stock (hi Anthony Edwards!).

But for the mid-majors, November is a crucial period for building an NCAA Tournament résumé. Multi-team events are often the only chance for these programs to match up with the big boys, an opportunity to send a message to the selection committee and college basketball fans across the country. I call it “Slipper Sizing SZN.”

All of the thought and deliberation that gets put into preseason rankings gets thrown out the window as soon as the season begins. Just one month in, there are 10 new teams that have broken into this top 25, which as of this moment looks more like an Atlantic 10 power rankings.

Excluded are teams from the top seven conferences — ACC, Big Ten, Big East Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, AAC — and Gonzaga, due to their overwhelming advantages in the budget, scheduling and recruiting. So get a head start on your bracket homework now, and don’t forget to tell me why these rankings are wrong on Twitter.

1. Dayton (5-1): A star is born in 6-foot-9 sophomore Obi Toppin, who undoubtedly shot up a lot of draft boards after posting better than 22 points and seven rebounds on national television at the Maui Invitational this week. The Maui bump is real, and the Flyers looked every bit like a team that can compete on the national stage in an overtime loss to Kansas. Never mind the fact that when you step back, wins over Georgia and Virginia Tech could prove to be fairly pedestrian. Neither will be as important as the upcoming showdown with Saint Mary’s in Phoenix. But until then, the team can bask in the praise that will be heaped upon them for their unselfish and high-powered brand of basketball.

2. San Diego State (8-0): The Aztecs defense has been suffocating so far this season, good for 27th in the nation. The 31-point win over Creighton in Las Vegas on Thursday was a defensive masterclass, and coming from 16 down to beat Iowa the next day and win the Las Vegas Invitational proved this team’s ceiling to be much higher than we originally thought. Much has been made about the NBA draft picks SDSU lost, but junior guard Malachi Flynn looked every bit their successor when he poured in 25 points in the final 13 minutes against the Hawkeyes. The Washington State transfer showed off a complete offensive package and looks to be the team’s centerpiece moving forward.

3. Saint Mary’s (7-1): Friday’s heavyweight slugfest with Utah State went the full 15 rounds, showcasing one of the best college basketball games of the season. The difference ended up being Gaels point guard Jordan Ford, who went berserk with 22 second-half points and sparked a late 11-0 run to pull away. Non-conference matchups with Dayton, Arizona State and Nevada loom before WCC play starts, but the way this team executes so beautifully on offense, it’s those other teams that should be nervous. The Gaels rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency and earned open shot after open shot against a good (if hobbled) Utah State defense.

4. Utah State (7-1): Emphasis on the word “hobbled” above. Star 7-foot sophomore Neemias Queta has yet to return from his left knee injury sustained over the summer, and on Friday the Aggies were also without 7-foot-2 backup big man Kuba Karwowski. Because the defense is built around a shot-blocking anchor in the middle, USU was vulnerable in the paint and also on the glass. The fact that they beat LSU in Jamaica without Queta, and led Saint Mary’s for most of the game without either big, speaks to their almost unlimited potential. By the time the NCAA Tournament rolls around in March, I’d be shocked if the Aggies didn’t climb back to No. 1 on this list.

5. VCU (6-2): “Havoc” is back. The Rams got off to a hot start with their stifling defense, including a huge win at home over LSU and former coach Will Wade. But familiar offensive woes were exposed this week at the Emerald Coast Classic in losses to Purdue and Tennessee. Marcus Evans, a preseason A10 first-teamer, came to Florida averaging better than 15 points per game and walked away with 10 total points in the two losses. The offensive load was placed on the broad shoulders of 6-foot-7 junior Marcus Santos-Silva, but ultimately it wasn’t enough. Still, losses by a combined six points to two teams ranked in KenPom’s top 25 will surely not derail what looks to be a promising season.

6. East Tennessee State (7-1): The Buccaneers showed their mettle by giving Kansas a game in Allen Fieldhouse, cutting the lead to five with five minutes remaining before losing by a dozen. That game served as a coming out party for multidimensional 6-foot-5 junior Bo Hodges, at least in a starring role, as he put up 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks against the Jayhawks. If he continues to shine for ETSU, currently averaging 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists, it provides the cornerstone for a potentially unstoppable force in the SoCon.

7. BYU (6-3): Yoeli Childs is back. The 6-foot-8 senior returns this week from a suspension doled out by the NCAA because of a paperwork snafu after Childs decided to pull his name from the NBA Draft. He’ll be in the lineup against in-state rival Utah on Wednesday, looking to prove he’s among the very best players in college basketball. The Cougars outperformed expectations in his absence, racking up wins against Houston, UCLA and Virginia Tech, leaving the door open for an at-large bid to the Big Dance if they go on a run in WCC play.

8. Northern Iowa (7-1): An early favorite has risen in the Valley. After a rare losing season last year, coach Ben Jacobson is back to looking like college basketball’s Gregg Popovich, and the Panthers his San Antonio Spurs. They play slow, smart, unselfish, defensive-minded basketball, a formula which has worked against Old Dominion and South Carolina this season, even slowing down Press Virginia in the team’s only blemish this season, a five-point loss in Cancun this week. In that game, reigning Missouri Valley freshman of the year A.J. Green put up 26 points, including the last 10. When things get tight, Green is the go-to guy.

9. Richmond (6-1): The Spiders are feisty, led by a three-headed backcourt each averaging better than 16 points per game. What they lack in size (Jacob Gilyard is 5-foot-9 and Blake Francis is 6-foot), they more than make up for in outside shooting (Gilyard and Nick Sherod are shooting better than 50 percent from three, and Sherod is doing so on nearly eight attempts per game). Depth is a definite question mark, as is defense, but that hasn’t stopped them from taking down Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Boston College already. Their only loss is forgivable, to Auburn at Barclays Center. Can they put up enough points to compete in the crazy competitive A10?

10. Vermont (6-3): The Catamounts proved their long-term potential by winning at St. John’s and going toe to toe with Virginia into the final minutes, but have been plagued by inconsistent play ever since. An absolutely dreadful shooting night led to a surprise loss to Rider, and somehow it was even worse in a 13-point loss at Yale. Like, five for 28 from three-point range bad. This year’s team is built around defense, hoping to piece together enough offense around star 6-foot-6 senior Anthony Lamb to win. The strategy works because they only turn the ball over 11 times per game, ranking in the top 30 in the nation, but they will need to find their shooting touch to regain elite status among the mid-majors nationally.

11. Furman (7-1): The loss at Alabama notwithstanding, everything has gone according to the script for the Paladins so far. Junior Clay Mounce and sophomore Noah Gurley have made a leap, providing versatility at 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8 respectively on defense and giving scoring support to senior point guard Jordan Lyons (16.1 ppg). Plus, a little luck. Down by two in the final second against UT Arlington on Wednesday, a broken play led to a converted and-one for the win. The concern for this year’s Paladins is their depth, which will be tested this week on the road at USF and at ranked Auburn.

12. UTEP (5-0): It’s important to bring some perspective to what has been a dream start for the Miners. Five wins, including a sweep of rivals and mid-major powers New Mexico State and New Mexico, and the immediate eligibility waiver coming through for 6-foot-6 sophomore Kaden Archie, a TCU transfer and former four-star recruit. But all five wins have come at home, and the other three were against non-D1 opponents. So the team still has a lot to prove, starting this week with a rematch against New Mexico State in Las Cruces. For now, UTEP is the team to beat in Conference USA.

13. New Mexico (7-2): The Lobos certainly pass the airport test, and in wins over Wisconsin and Montana this week they passed the eye test. 6-foot-5 senior JaQuan Lyle has emerged from the pack of highly-touted transfers as the team’s marquee playmaker, averaging 4.4 assists to go with 16.9 points per game. Throw in double-digit scorers Carlton Bragg Jr., Corey Manigault and Makuach Maluach, all of whom stand 6-foot-7 or taller, and you’ve got a high-powered and intimidating offense. Will it be enough to compete against the best in the Mountain West?

14. Liberty (9-0): The Flames’ analytics are artificially inflated by a weak schedule (the 350th toughest schedule in the country, per KenPom), but they’ve only allowed a single opponent to reach 60 points all season (exactly 60 in the first game of the season to Radford). The defense deserves respect, especially after last season’s NCAA Tournament win. It’s a fascinating team to watch because they have seven players who average between eight and 11.2 points per game, and they’ve only had two instances all season where a player reached 20 points. We’ll see what they are truly made of over the next few weeks in games against Vanderbilt and LSU.

15. George Mason (8-1): A spanking by top-five Maryland does little to dampen the excitement in Fairfax after wins over a power conference school (Nebraska) and two NCAA Tournament teams (Old Dominion and New Mexico State). In order to appreciate the Patriots, you must watch them play, because their old school style — slow-paced with a lack of three-point shooting — doesn’t reflect well in the numbers. The backcourt of Jamal Hartwell II and Javon Greene seem to take turns each game going off for 20-plus.

16. Bowling Green (6-2): 6-foot-4 junior Justin Turner leads the blazing-fast attack for the Falcons, who rank 30th nationally in adjusted tempo. Turner is a stat-stuffer: 19 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field. It makes sense that the two losses come against more athletic teams, LSU and Nevada, because in the best wins BGSU has been able to run Western Kentucky, Cincinnati and Dartmouth off the floor. The schedule eases up a bit before MAC play begins, meaning now is the time to see if the team can go streaking (win streaking, that is).

17. Stephen F Austin (6-1): I suppose ending Duke’s 150-game non-conference home winning streak is grounds enough for ranking on this list. Don’t you? Ironically, the Lumberjacks were picked to finish fourth in the Southland Conference, perennially one of the lowest conferences in Division I. Evidently, that poll didn’t take into account Kevon Harris becoming a 20 ppg scorer. The 6-foot-6 senior poured in 26 points in Cameron Indoor. The next Goliath in his path is Alabama, where we’ll see if this David has another stone ready for his proverbial slingshot.

18. Saint Louis (7-1): For those of you counting at home, this is the FIFTH team from the A10 on this list. And spoiler alert, there’s gonna be more! It’s probably the most exciting conference race in all of college basketball. The Billikens belong in the hunt because of their defense, which has stifled Belmont, Boston College, and every other team they’ve played except for ranked Seton Hall. Scoring doesn’t come easy, even with double-double machines Jordan Goodwin (16.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg) and Hasahn French (14.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg). Still left on the non-conference schedule is Auburn, this year’s mid-major measuring stick, and Kansas State. Then the murderer’s row of A10 foes line up after the new year.

19. Western Kentucky (6-2): Ok, someone has to have the courage to finally ask the question: are we sure Charles Bassey is an NBA lottery pick? The 6-foot-11 sophomore was one of the top players in the country in high school, shocked everyone by attending Western Kentucky, then made more headlines by (supposedly) turning down a first round NBA Draft selection to return for his sophomore season. At 15.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, he’s undoubtedly a really good piece for WKU, but he’s hardly dominating the way his hype would suggest. And more importantly, he hasn’t been a game-changer for the Hilltoppers. They’re the most talented team in C-USA, but their best win so far is against KenPom No. 181, Fordham.

20. Nevada (5-3): Steve Alford‘s Wolf Pack is still finding its footing, but a 15-point win at home over Bowling Green this week is cause for optimism. More importantly, a second scorer has appeared alongside Muss buss holdover Jazz Johnson (18.6 ppg). 6-foot-5 junior Jalen Harris put up 22, 25 and 20 points in the three wins, hitting a combined nine threes. Bench minutes come at a premium on this team, so it will be interesting to see if Alford resorts to a short rotation, a Musselman signature, as the Pack faces BYU and Saint Mary’s before conference play.

21. Rhode Island (5-3): The Rams have played a crazy schedule so far, losing AT Maryland, AT West Virginia and against LSU in Jamaica. It sounds strange to say they’ve earned the most respect in their three losses, but this team held its own in some tough situations. 5-foot-10 junior Fatts Russell might have something to say in the A10 player of the year conversation, upping his scoring average this year to 19.6 points after a monster 32-point performance against WVU. If this team is legit, they’ll turn the solid play into wins against Providence and Western Kentucky before A10 play starts.

22. UNC Greensboro (6-2): The Spartans’ only losses this year have come at Allen Fieldhouse and on an insane half-court buzzer-beater to Montana State. The latter is definitely a bad loss, but it’s more than evened out by Saturday’s win at Georgetown–even if the win came in a cold-shooting, high-turnover, eyesore of a game. In order for UNCG to be its best, the meal ticket is 6-foot junior Isaiah Miller, a ridiculous leaper and playmaker in the open court.

23. Delaware (8-0): It’s only the second time in school history the Blue Hens have reached an 8-0 record. Suddenly, the team picked to finish fifth in the Colonial is starting to look like the favorite. How is this possible? Let me introduce you to your new favorite player, the appropriately named Nate Darling. The 6-foot-5 junior is averaging 23.4 points, shooting 49.1 percent from deep on over seven attempts per game. Against UTSA on Nov. 10, Darling hit eight of 10 three-pointers en route to 37 points. So yeah, it’s time to take Darling and the Blue Hens seriously.

24. New Mexico State (4-4): I’ll defend my No. 3 ranking of the Aggies in the preseason standings by saying I was going for a projected order of finish. Does that excuse me, at all? It’s been a tough start for NMSU, which has dealt with numerous injuries and a really difficult schedule (all four losses to KenPom top 120 teams). Admittedly, it’s more than that. The team has shot the ball poorly, turned it over too much and gotten pummeled on the boards. The at-large dream is dead, but if the Aggies can get healthy and build some momentum before starting conference play against the lowly WAC, it’s easy to see them clawing their way back up these rankings in the future.

25. Buffalo (5-2): The Bulls got good wins against Harvard and Missouri State, so Saturday’s game against William and Mary earned my full attention. Turns out, first-year coach Jim Whitesell’s style is a spitting image of the Nate Oats’ era. It’s fast (15th in adjusted tempo), loose and fearless. It’s always been a player-friendly system, and this year the beneficiary is 6-foot-3 junior Jayvon Graves, who jumped up from 9.7 ppg last season to 17.7 ppg so far this year. Road games at Vanderbilt and DePaul this week will put the Bulls to the test.

Honorable Mention (alphabetical): Boise State, Davidson, Duquesne, Harvard, San Francisco, Santa Clara

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