The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings are out and that means we’ve got a ton of questions before the final rankings come out on Sunday.
What if LSU and Ohio State win, who gets No. 1 seed?
The race for the No. 4 spot is intriguing to see who gets in and who is left out, but I’m more intrigued to see who wins the race for the top seed. I was a little surprised Ohio State moved up to No. 1 last week with a win over Penn State. I thought that move up would have happened this week after a win over Michigan. LSU certainly had a “complete” win over Texas A&M to stay within striking distance entering Championship Week. LSU will play No. 4 Georgia while Ohio State plays No. 8 Wisconsin, so LSU has a chance to take the No. 1 seed back if they win in a blowout and Ohio State doesn’t. My prediction is both win convincingly and Ohio State maintains the top seed with LSU getting the No. 2 seed and will draw No. 3 Clemson in the toughest semifinal in College Football Playoff history.
What if Utah and Oklahoma win?
Okay, now we’re talking. This is undoubtedly the toughest question the committee will have to evaluate. Both will have identical records if they win their conference championship games, but diving deeper into the resume of each still makes it difficult to truly evaluate which team is best.
Oklahoma has three FPI Top 25 wins compared to one for Utah.
Oklahoma has the No. 41 strength of schedule compared to No. 54 for Utah.
Oklahoma’s strength of record is No. 7 compared to No. 12 for Utah.
Utah has faced six bowl teams compared to five for Oklahoma, although they’ll see Baylor twice, so it’s five teams, but six games vs. bowl teams.
Utah’s offensive efficiency is No. 8 compared to No. 4 for Oklahoma but the Utes have the No. 5 defense compared to No. 42 for the Sooners.
Oklahoma’s offense is slightly better than Utah’s but the Utes have a defense that’s been better and more consistent all year. Plus, they have more dominant wins compared to a few recent nail-biters from the Sooners.
Utah has a 22 percent chance to make the playoff according to the Allstate playoff predictor while Oklahoma has a 52 percent chance to get in with a win over Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The numbers tend to favor Oklahoma, but I tend to think if Utah was wearing USC uniforms, they’d already be the No. 4 seed. I think Utah not being a blue blood hurts them, even if it’s an unquantifiable intangible.
So if both Utah and Oklahoma win, I think Oklahoma gets the nod.
What if Utah and Baylor win?
Okay, good, we’re back to answering easy questions. I loved these when I was in school. If Utah wins and Baylor beats Oklahoma, then the Utes are in. The gap between Utah and Baylor is bigger than the gap between Utah and Oklahoma. Barring Baylor beating Oklahoma 59-0 on Saturday afternoon, I think Utah is in.
What if Utah loses and Baylor wins?
It feels like Baylor has already been handed a loss the way many are approaching the Big 12 and potential playoff fallout. Baylor already lost to Oklahoma last month when they blew a 28-3 lead, but it’s not like they were dominated from start to finish. Baylor should have won, and if they did, they’d be in pole position to make the playoff. Instead, they need the most help to get in. Baylor needs Oregon to beat Utah on Friday night and then LSU to beat Georgia. In between that, they need to beat Oklahoma. If all that happens, they will be in the playoff. And this is where Alabama’s loss to Auburn last week comes into play. Had Alabama won and then Utah and Oklahoma lost on Championship Week, it would have been the Tide to steal the fourth spot, not Big 12 champion Baylor.
What if LSU loses to Georgia?
LSU is undefeated but what if they suffer their first loss of the year to No. 4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game? If this happens, and I don’t think it will, but LSU would be in the playoff as a one-loss non-conference champion. So relax, LSU fans, you’re in win or lose.
What if Ohio State loses to Wisconsin?
Ohio State had no trouble with Wisconsin when they beat them 38-7 in October. Justin Fields is dealing with a sprained MCL so perhaps that slows the OSU offense against the Badgers defense? If Wisconsin pulls off the upset, I think Ohio State is a lock to get in. Just like LSU, Ohio State fans can relax, but they’ll need a win if they want to be the No. 1 seed and avoid playing Clemson in the semifinal.
What if Clemson loses to Virginia?
It’s almost a 30-point spread so this would be one of the biggest upsets this season, and considering the time of the upset, it could be the biggest upset in any season. The reigning champs have been on a tear the second half of the season and look even better than last year’s title team. Clemson is not losing to Virginia. But if they did, would they be out? Of the big three undefeated, Clemson is perceived as the weakest because of the down ACC so they can’t really afford a loss because Dabo Swinney‘s conspiracy theories might start to look prophetic. Even if they lose, which would be a titanic upset, I don’t know how the committee could look at the Pac-12 or Big 12 champ and think they are unequivocally better.
What if Georgia loses to LSU?
Okay, this is the team that’s supposed to lose this weekend. If Georgia beats LSU to win the SEC, they’ll be in. If Georgia loses, it’ll be their second loss, and they’ll be out and have to settle for a nice New Year’s Six bowl berth instead.
College Football Playoff rankings: Top 25
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Utah
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Wisconsin
9. Florida
10. Penn State
11. Auburn
12. Alabama
13. Oregon
14. Michigan
15. Notre Dame
16. Iowa
17. Memphis
18. Minnesota
19. Boise State
20. Cincinnati
21. Appalachian State
22. USC
23. Virginia
24. Navy
25. Oklahoma State
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