The Pac-12 will already be decided, but can the Big 12 winner between the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners leapfrog the Utah Utes and into the Playoff?
It will be Championship Weekend in major college football. All 10 conferences, Power 5 and Group of 5, will play their title bouts on Saturday, with the exception being the Pac-12 Championship between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes duking it out on Friday. Seven teams are still alive for the College Football Playoff, including the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners.
The seven teams still alive for the College Football Playoff are the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, the No. 2 LSU Tigers, the No. 3 Clemson Tigers, the No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 5 Utah, No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Baylor. With both Big 12 schools the furthest bank in the latest rankings that can still get in, what are the chances they can leapfrog Utah, possibly Georgia, into the Playoff?
At this time, one team has essentially clinched a spot into the Playoff. That would be No. 2 LSU, who could still lose to No. 4 Georgia in the SEC Championship in Atlanta and still end up as a No. 4 seed. No. 1 Ohio State is to some degree in the same spot as LSU, although a bad neutral-site loss to the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis could knock them out.
The other undefeated team in the land in No. 3 Clemson has to beat the No. 23 Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Championship in Charlotte. Clemson’s regular-season schedule won’t impress the Selection Committee, so the Tigers must beat the one ranked team on their schedule to get in. A neutral-site loss to Virginia would be both shocking and devastating.
In short, the SEC is getting at least one team in and if Ohio State and Clemson win, they are getting in as well. Essentially, there are four teams really vying for that last spot: No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Utah, No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Baylor. Which of those four contending teams has the best shot of getting in? Could that team conceivably come out of the Big 12?
Should Georgia upset LSU in front of a 75 percent Georgia crowd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the Dawgs will make the College Football Playoff as SEC Champions, probably as the No. 3 or even the No. 2 seed. LSU would still make it in as an at-large, one-loss, non-champion, presumably as the No. 4 seed so that it would avoid an immediate rematch with Georgia.
The last thing teams like Utah, Oklahoma and Baylor want is for Georgia to upset LSU. At that point, they’d have to hope that Virginia stuns Clemson and Wisconsin wins its rematch against Ohio State. Even then, Ohio State is still likely to get in as a one-loss, non-champion. A Playoff without both LSU and Ohio State would be a miraculous one. Do you believe in miracles?
Well, that is what it might take for the Big 12 to get in. By having Utah as the No. 5 team, a win over No. 13 Oregon might be enough to get the Utes to No. 4 with either a Georgia or a Clemson loss. However, that would be the only win vs. a ranked team Utah would have beaten. The only other ranked team Utah played was a loss to the division rival USC Trojans down in Los Angeles.
But should Georgia lose to LSU on Saturday afternoon and Oregon beat Utah on Friday night, then the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington will likely end up the one getting in. For Oklahoma, this would be the Sooners’ third win over a ranked team, having beating Oklahoma State and Baylor twice. Baylor would have two ranked wins, one over each Oklahoma school.
So the question that will be on everyone’s mind is this entering Championship Weekend: Does a win by No. 5 Utah over No. 13 Oregon do enough to hold off a top-10 win by a Big 12 Champion, should either a Georgia or a Clemson were to lose? If Utah loses Friday night, things will get clearer. The Big 12 will get a team in if both Utah and Georgia lose this weekend. Let’s get weird.
For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.