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Fantasy football week 14: Exploitable inefficiencies

By Matt McGarvey

NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 20: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans runs the ball during a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium on October 20, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 20: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans runs the ball during a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium on October 20, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /
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Find out which players you should be considering when entering your NFL DFS lineups this week.

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 14!

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA, a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Defenses struggling against the pass and stout against the run:

New York Giants: 27th Overall (Pass: 30th, Run: 11th)

Tennessee: 18th Overall (Pass: 24th, Run: 4th)

New York Jets: 10th Overall (Pass: 21st, Run: 2nd)

Tampa Bay: 9th Overall (Pass: 19th, Run: 1st)

Defenses struggling against the run and stout against the pass:

Carolina: 21st Overall (Pass: 7th, Run: 32nd)

Kansas City: 15th Overall (Pass: 6th, Run: 30th)

Buffalo: 6th Overall (Pass: 5th, Run: 22nd)

Baltimore: 4th Overall (Pass: 3rd, Run: 25th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses

Oakland: 31st Overall (Pass: 28th, Run: 26th)

The Titans will head to Oakland, to take on the Raiders, in a game in which Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite. Tennessee has had a sudden resurgence with Ryan Tannehill now under center, and should be able to continue that success this week. The Titans have gone 5-1 since Tannehill was named the starter, and have scored an average of 29.67 points over the course of those six games. Not only has Tannehill been able to do it through the air and with his legs, but his success has opened up the running game, allowing Derick Henry to flourish.

This week’s matchup will be a juicy one for the offense, as they’ll face the Oakland defense that ranks 31st in overall defensive efficiency. Tennessee has faced a fairly average slate of opposing defenses, but this will be the worst that they’ve faced, by far. I’ll be overweight on Tannehill, Henry, and the Titans’ pass catchers.

Seattle: 16th Overall (Pass: 13th, Run: 18th)

An important NFC West battle will take place on Sunday night, as the Ram’s head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Both teams are coming off of impressive wins, and I tend to believe that Rams offense will have success again, in this spot.

Los Angeles proved how effective they can be through the air when all of their receivers are healthy. Between Kupp, Woods, and Cooks, they have all have missed significant time, and last week proved how lethal they can be when healthy. Another well-known, but often overlooked factor, is how directly correlated Jared Goff‘s performances are to opposing pressure rates.

Next. Fantasy football: Week 14 boom or bust picks. dark

The Seattle defense currently ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate, at 5.4%. They rank 28th in total sacks, with only 23 sacks. Opposing pressure has been Goff’s kryptonite throughout his career, so if he has time to throw, with a healthy receiving core, I expect him to excel in this spot. I’ll be overweight on Goff, Gurley, Kupp, Cook, and Higbee (if Everett is out again).

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