2019 Fiesta Bowl – Ohio State vs. Clemson: First-look preview, odds, prediction

First-look preview, odds and prediction for the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson.

Fresh off its 29th consecutive win and its eighth straight game scoring more than 35 points, Clemson is doing the new “Clemsoning,” which is peaking while heading into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming in limping but dangerous, as shown by its dismantling of the entire Big Ten.

The last time these two met, it was all Clemson in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett combined for four interceptions, but Clemson’s defense shutout the Buckeyes en route to a 31-0 win. This year, it would appear, will not be the case.

Game Info

Date: Dec. 28
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Stadium: State Farm Stadium
TV Info: ESPN
Odds: Clemson – 2 (The Action Network)

With plenty of early action one Clemson, the line has moved closer to a pick ’em after opening at Clemson (-2.5). This game is shaping up to be an all-timer. Let’s take a look at the keys for each team in the 2019 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.

Ohio State keys to victory

The Buckeyes are the most complete team in the playoff this year. Both SP+ and FEI have Ohio State as the best team in the country, and the eye test backs that up. Ohio State has star power on both sides of the ball in Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins, and Chase Young.

Despite the flair of Dobbins and the talent of Fields, it’s Ohio State’s defense that leads the way for this team. The Buckeyes lead the country in sacks with 51 and boast the second stingiest defense in points allowed per game. Both of those will be critical in their quest for an upset over Clemson. Look for the Buckeyes to disguise defensive looks and use late shifts to get pressure on Clemson. Virginia was able to force Trevor Lawrence to roll out of the pocket. If the Cavaliers had the bodies, they might have been able to land a few more sacks on the sophomore quarterback.

On offense, the Buckeyes ran the fourth most efficient squad in football. More importantly, Ohio State’s offense had the fifth most explosive team. Look for the Buckeyes’ offense to really try to get Dobbins going. The Tigers otherwise stout defense has been susceptible to explosive plays, ranking 14th in that department. While Fields has not run as effectively as he did at Georgia (6.3 yards per carry, compared to 3.8), Clemson has struggled with mobile quarterbacks in the past. Bryce Perkins in the ACC Championship game, for instance, was able to move the ball well early in the game.

If Justin Fields can get healthy, his legs will be critical in keeping plays alive once the pocket breaks down. Look for Fields to do his most damage outside of the pocket, throwing it deep.

Clemson keys to victory

As has been well documented, the Tigers have not played a particularly strong schedule this year. Still, their defense has been up to the task of handling opposing offenses, ranking at or near the top of just about every defensive category, including the advanced statistics. Meanwhile, their offense is loaded with playmakers at the skill positions and veterans on the offensive line. Finding holes in this team is nitpicking, but Clemson needs to be aware of the ways that Ohio State can exploit these holes.

Clemson will need to shore up the back end of its defense. All year, the Tigers have been vulnerable to explosive plays. Part of that will be minimizing their reliance on Tanner Muse in one-on-one coverage. In the ACC Championship, Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavaliers were able to attack Muse in coverage by isolating him and putting double moves on him. Muse doesn’t miss tackles, so receivers will need to beat him before the ball arrives.

The defense also needs to keep Fields contained in the pocket. Perkins found plenty of running lanes against the Tigers defense. A healthy Fields will find similar success, with better players to throw it to downfield. They won’t be able to rely on turnovers, as Fields is incredibly careful with the ball.

On offense, the Tigers just need to keep playing their game. Feed Tee Higgins and Travis Etienne, and they will have no problem scoring. Since their close call with UNC, Clemson has been on an offensive tear. It’s almost as if they were just trying to see what worked early on, and now they know.

Prediction

This isn’t like the 2016 Fiesta Bowl. These are the two most complete teams in college football, with neither team holding a distinct edge over the other. Neither Ohio State nor Clemson as of late, have turned the ball over much this year. So it is no surprise that the line opened at less than a field goal.

Wisconsin had the blueprint to beat Ohio State on display in the Big Ten Championship game, and they made the Buckeyes look ugly on offense. Clemson will need to follow that blueprint to hold Ohio State in check, and unfortunately for Ohio State, Clemson has the horses to do it.

If the Buckeyes want to win this game, they need to be efficient on offense and hope that Clemson’s offense regresses. With some help on special teams (another area where Ohio State holds an edge) and a few big plays, the Buckeyes will find the end zone enough to win a shootout. It’s just tough to see that happening against this complete and experience Clemson squad.

The Tigers score plenty and stop Fields in the showdown of Georgia’s finest quarterbacks.

Clemson 33, Ohio State 28

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