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Curses! Will Joe Burrow be better off if he doesn’t win the Heisman?

By Sean Watterson

NEW YORK CITY, NY - DECEMBER 10: 2016 Heisman Trophy winner University of Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson (4) with the Heisman Trophy after winning the 81st Annual Heisman Trophy press conference on December 10, 2016, at the Marriott Marquis in New York City. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NEW YORK CITY, NY - DECEMBER 10: 2016 Heisman Trophy winner University of Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson (4) with the Heisman Trophy after winning the 81st Annual Heisman Trophy press conference on December 10, 2016, at the Marriott Marquis in New York City. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The Heisman Trophy will be awarded next week. Is the winner doomed to a career of mediocrity, or worse, the CFL? We take a deep dive into the Heisman Curse.

In early Fall 1901, John Heisman was strolling through the woods near the Clemson Agricultural College, contemplating what direction to take his football team in the upcoming season. As he was deep in thought, he wandered past a strange house. As Heisman approached the house, an old woman who, at the sight of Heisman, sprinted from inside the house, incensed at the interloper.

Though Heisman explained he was merely taking a walk, the woman would not let Heisman’s trespassing go unpunished. The woman, knowing that Heisman was a respected football coach and an excellent player in his prime, put a powerful curse upon the once-great player. One day, an award would be named after him, honoring the best player in college football. Any player winning that award would be doomed to mediocrity in their professional careers.

And thus, the Heisman Curse was born.

Of course, all of that is nonsense. As far as you know. But the idea of a “Heisman Curse” is an exciting narrative that appears to explain the failure of so many Heisman winners. The question, then, is it true?

The Heisman Trophy

The Heisman trophy is all but a quarterback award in modern football — only three players since 2000 played a different position (two if you want to pretend that Reggie Bush didn’t win his Heisman). Over that stretch, we have seen some phenomenal flameouts, one-hit wonders, and career backups, especially at the quarterback position.

The likes of Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, and Jason White headline the early 2000s, where it seemed that there was nothing a quarterback could do to avoid the Heisman Curse. Here are the quarterbacks that won the Heisman from 2000-2009:

In 2005 Reggie Bush (heard of him) won it, and in 2009 Mark Ingram slid right down that red carpet to a Heisman Trophy.

via GIPHY

That’s eight quarterbacks, one very good career in Palmer. Sam Bradford‘s career, against all logic, has to be considered a success. Not necessarily on the field, but definitely in the bank. Although he was a starter for three-ish teams. That’s not exactly a failed career. But those two are by far the exception, not the rule.

Then, in the quarterbacks from 2010 to 2018 (and we can already just assume that Joseph F. Burreaux is going to win it this year), things change a little bit.

What happened? Did Heisman voters get smarter? Did the quality of Heisman winner get better? Let’s look at our quarterback winners, take them in context, and figure out what is happening with the Heisman curse.

Context

Let’s start with Weinke. In the 2000 season, Weinke was 28. He was a solid five years older than everyone else he was playing with and was playing for a Florida State squad in the heyday of Bobby Bowden. To paraphrase Chris Rock, that’s what you’re supposed to do! Weinke put up monster stats because he was a grown man playing against dudes who couldn’t rent a car. So his Heisman should have an Ichiro sized asterisk.

Then we have guys who were system guys. Crouch — a triple-option system — and Jason White — a Mike Leach-lite system — are two guys who weren’t going to make it. They didn’t get cursed, they outkicked their talent.

There are also some guys who benefit from playing in a year without any spectacular players. The year Troy Smith won the Heisman was one such year. Darren McFadden finished second that year. Do you know who the second quarterback in terms of votes was? Brady Quinn. Rough year.

Another important factoid: voters were allergic to giving freshman the award. Like the baseball Hall of Fame, there was just some weird unwritten rule that said a new kid on campus wasn’t allow to be the best player in football. That changed with Johnny Manziel, who was his own curse. He didn’t need to win the Heisman for the world to see he was a dumpster fire waiting to happen. (Not to mention Mike Evans was a huge reason for his numbers, but that’s another story for another time.)

So, when we cross off the guys who were the beneficiaries of a down year, system players, and players in the physical prime, we are really only looking at about 11 quarterbacks. The successes and failures of those 11 players illustrate why some players end up cursed.

Letting your quarterback play his game

Tim Tebow was a mess as a professional quarterback. He had a long delivery. He didn’t have the strongest arm, and his passes could flutter, especially when throwing downfield. But he was a battering ram of a player. If, as an offensive coordinator, you asked Tebow to sit in the pocket and throw strikes in tight windows, you would not be long for that position. That’s why the Broncos used him as a runner who would throw and found moderate success with him. Who knows, if Peyton Manning hadn’t been a free agent, Tebow might still be completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes in Denver.

In that, though, lies an important point, and a big reason some Heisman winners have failed. Robert Griffin III lit the world on fire his rookie year when the Shanahan’s had him running a modified Baylor offense. When he couldn’t run anymore, he wasn’t as effective. Griffin had to be something he wasn’t: a pocket quarterback.

We can see it happening now, too, with Jackson. Before going further, Jackson is not a system quarterback. He is the most exciting quarterback to watch in the league right now. He is in a system that is perfectly tailored to his strengths. He would not be as successful if he had to run Tom Brady‘s offense, just as Brady would not be at all successful running a single wing power sweep on fourth down in Seattle.

The same is true for Baker Mayfield in the end of the 2018 season. The Browns put Mayfield in situations where he was allowed to do what he does well. This year? Well, let’s just say the Browns stay the Browns.

What about some of the failures? That’s a great question. When you look at guys like Bradford and Marcus Mariota, you see two guys who got their starts playing for teams that wanted them to play the “NFL” type of quarterback. Bradford started with Steve Spagnolo. Mariota had to run “exotic smashmouth,” a concept that is so insulting it’s amazing Mariota didn’t hang it up then and there.

When it comes down to it, if you want your quarterback to be a success, don’t have him do things he’s bad at. And if he’s bad at too many things (Tebow) then maybe don’t have him play quarterback.

Is there a Heisman curse?

Not to be a wet blanket, but no. There isn’t a Heisman curse. There is a stubborn coach curse. There’s an utter refusal to adopt an NFL offense to match the strengths of their college players. If you continue to try to shove a square peg into a round slot, there isn’t a “square peg curse.” You’re just an idiot who doesn’t understand shapes.

Mike and Kyle Shanahan figured this out and made Griffin an exciting playoff-caliber quarterback. Andy Reid knew what to do to get Alex Smith to play like a Pro-Bowler. John Harbaugh certainly knows what to do with Jackson. Let your talented players play to their strengths. Let the offense highlight those rather than be frustrated by them not being something they can’t be.

The idea that there is a curse also overlooks that playing quarterback is very, very hard. There are also some successful quarterbacks like Palmer, Cam Newton, and to a lesser extent Jameis Winston. These guys got the job done at a high level. Nobody thinks the Heisman was detrimental to their careers.

But when it comes to the Heisman Curse, there’s mostly just a compatibility issue. Collegiate talent doesn’t necessarily lend itself to the NFL. And if it’s not a perfect fit, coaches that can’t see the forest for the trees fail to adapt their offenses to their teams.

If you still think that there’s a curse, you probably want Jackson to be Brady. Think like that and you’ll miss out on something really special.

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