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College football bowl games: Ranking every 2019-2020 bowl team

By Nicholas Ian Allen

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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Now that the entire college football bowl game schedule is set, we rank all 78 teams according to the CFB Winning Edge Team Strength power rankings.

After 15 weeks and 1,562 games, we finally know who’s in. The College Football Playoff committee has officially set the stage for the semifinals, and either LSU, Ohio State, Clemson or Oklahoma will be crowned our new national champion on Jan. 13, 2020.

But before one of those bluebloods wins the title, a total of 78 teams will meet in bowl games. And though the committee gave its collective opinion on its Top 25 rankings, we’ve turned to the CFB Winning Edge Team Strength power ratings to slot each bowl game participant.

Team Strength consists of three main factors:

  • Roster Strength combines more than 11,000 individual player ratings, based on recruiting projections, experience and career production, and weighted so that starters count most but depth and injuries are also taken into account, to show each team’s overall talent level.
  • Team Performance refers to the average game grade assigned to each FBS team based on a variety of statistical factors, to provide a snapshot of how well each team has played on the field, regardless of its won-loss record.
  • Head Coach Rating relies on historical performance, including 2019 results, to act as an overall evaluation of each FBS head coach. Any interim head coach leading his team in a bowl game, unless otherwise noted, has been assigned a generic 75.00 rating.

Combined with selective per-play statistics, Roster Strength, Team Performance and Head Coach ratings provide an overall power rating for all 130 FBS teams on a 65-100 scale.

Team Strength ratings are designed to indicate which team would be favored on a neutral site and can be easily converted to projected point spreads (multiply the difference of any two Team Strength Ratings by a factor of two, and then adjust by 2.5 points if the home team is playing on its own field).

Does it work? Since the beginning of the 2018 season, CFB Winning Edge point spread projections have correctly predicted the outright winner in 71.7 percent of all games featuring FBS opponents. This year, our model correctly predicted 74.0 percent of all winners. And, most important to some, during last year’s bowl season, our final score predictions posted a 25-14 (64.1 percent) record against the spread.

Because we make updates daily, and some players will sit out because of injuries or decisions based on pro prospects, several CFB Winning Edge Team Strength ratings are likely to change before games are played. Nevertheless, shortly after each matchup was announced, we set out to rank each team throughout the 2019-2020 bowl game schedule:

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