The Indians may come out on top in the Corey Kluber trade

The Cleveland Indians are catching some flak for trading ace Corey Kluber, but could actually emerge as the winner of the trade by the end of next year.

The easy, knee-jerk reaction to the Cleveland Indians trading two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers for a young reliever and fourth outfielder is to label the team cheap and disinterested in trying to maximize their championship window before All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor’s time is up.

There’s some merit to any criticism calling out Indians ownership for being tight with their money. They have done little to improve the team since coming up just short of winning the 2016 World Series and continue to float Lindor’s name on the trade market despite the fact he is still two years away from free agency.

There are legitimate criticisms to be made when it comes to Indians management, but don’t be so hasty to label the Kluber trade a bad one just because it looks like a salary dump on the surface.

Owed $17.5 million this year and under contract with a team option for $18 million in 2021, Kluber is a massive bargain – as a No. 3 starter. That he has been a Cy Young caliber starter on a six-year, $59.8-million deal is highway robbery. In nine years with the Indians, Kluber is 98-58 with a 3.16 ERA and has been an All-Star three times. Cleveland has paid him just under $42.5 million for that work, or roughly $6 million more than Gerrit Cole will make this year alone.

Kluber has been a legitimate ace since Cleveland pulled him from the lower levels of the San Diego Padres system in an ill-fated trade for Ryan Ludwick. He didn’t reach the big leagues until age 25 and didn’t stick until age 27. The clock is working against Kluber, and he is entering his age-34 season.

Everyone is piling on the Indians for not riding out their ace’s bargain-basement contract to its conclusion. The return – 21-year-old reliever Emmanuel Clase and backup outfielder Delino DeShields – looks light compared to Kluber’s resume, but this is a deal that the Indians may in fact win in the long run.

Cleveland finished last season 93-69, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2015. They did that with Kluber missing most of the year after breaking his arm on a comebacker. He made seven starts, but was 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac stepped up to fill the void left by Kluber, while Mike Clevinger made a big step towards earning the “ace” label by going 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 12.1 strikeouts per nine.

The Indians are set with three young power arms at the top of their rotation, but their bullpen was missing an extra flamethrower. Cleveland relievers lost 18 games last season and had a 3.76 ERA, struggling in the second half. The Indians will pair Clase with 24-year-old James Karinchak, giving them two relievers with triple-digit heat to bridge the gap to Brad Hand in the ninth inning. Clase is armed with a fastball that averaged 99 mph last year and a 90-mph slider.

As for Kluber, the Indians may have picked the perfect time to sell. The right-hander relies heavily on his sinker and cutter to generate weak contact, but his velocity and spin rate continue to decline each year. If he cannot rely on those two pitches to get to his slider late in the count, Kluber will not have much success. Prior to his injury last year, opponents were hitting .390 against Kluber’s sinker and .286 against his cutter. His slider remained a dominant pitch, but that doesn’t matter if he is getting jumped on early in the count. Pitchers who rely heavily on sinkers and cutters, rather than a straight four-seam fastball can lose it quickly when their velocity and movement begin to wane. Kluber is also a notoriously slow starter in the months of April and May, so his trade value could have plummeted quickly had the Indians held him into the start of the season.

It’s still premature to write the eulogy for Corey Kluber’s career as a dominant starter, but the clock is working against him. The clock is also working against the Indians, but not as quickly. If – this is a big if – ownership gives the front office the green light to use the $18 million saved on Kluber’s contract this year on free agents, there’s no reason the team can’t win over 90 games for the fourth straight year. Their division will remain weak as Detroit, Chicago and Kansas City continue to rebuild, while the Minnesota Twins can still be viewed with some skepticism.

Cleveland’s path to 90-plus wins in 2020 remains as solid as it ever was, with or without Kluber. If they are able to return to the playoffs, with strong contributions in the late innings from Clase, then the deal is a win for them. Indians fans should take a wait-and-see approach before jumping all over their front office for this trade. If more trades follow, feel free to label the Indians cheap, but the Kluber deal looks like a shrewd move that will help the team more than hurt it in 2020 and beyond.