LSU’s Joe Burrow can deliver what no Heisman-winning QB has in College Football Playoff era
The top-seeded Tigers star is positioned to succeed where the last three passers to win the award and eight of 11 failed.
After rewriting Heisman history with a vote that redefined the word “landslide,” LSU’s Joe Burrow can pen a new page in the trophy’s postseason narrative.
All he has to do is deliver something that no award-winning quarterback has been able to in the College Football Playoff era, and one that largely eluded passers in the age of Bowl Championship Series before it.
Burrow just has to meet the hype, claim a championship, and he can exorcise a laundry list of demons in the process.
Dating back to 1998 and the start of the BCS, 16 quarterbacks have won the Heisman, 11 of whom have played for a title or in a semifinal, and just three of them claimed a championship: USC’s Matt Leinart (2004), Auburn’s Cam Newton (2010) and Florida State’s Jameis Winston (2013).
Oregon’s Marcus Mariota failed in 2014 in the first year of the playoff. So did Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield in ’17 and fellow Sooner Kyle Murray last season. Mariota’s Ducks at least made it to the title game, with the others falling in the semifinals. Before them, the BCS title game was the stage of setbacks for Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Jason White, Troy Smith and Sam Bradford.
To be fair, Alabama’s Derrick Henry rode a Heisman to a ring in 2015, giving the trophy a respite in the CFP, but one that came from a running back, not the position that has dominated the voting for more than two decades.
We’re still waiting for a QB to seal the deal in the playoff and Burrow will at least enter Dec. 28’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl with a luxury that Mariota, Mayfield and Murray didn’t have.
The Tigers passer will be first of those Heisman winners to go into the semifinals with the No. 1 seed, and Burrow is doing so with LSU a whopping 14-point favorite over No. 4 Oklahoma in Atlanta.
While it feels like a virtual lock with a line that is the second-biggest in CFP history behind only Alabama vs. the Sooners at 14.5 last season and the fact that double-digit favorites have gone 4-0 in the playoff’s previous five years, holding the top seed hasn’t exactly led to success. The second-ranked team has won three titles — Alabama in 2015 and Clemson in 2016 and ’18 — with the Buckeyes taking the inaugural playoff as the fourth seed in 2014, and the No. 1 team hasn’t even advanced to the championship game twice, in 2014 (Alabama) and ’17 (Clemson).
Per Fan Duel Sportsbook, LSU would be an underdog in either potential title game matchup, as an early 1 1/2-point underdog vs. Ohio State and three points against Clemson.
Adding to the deck being stacked against the Bayou Bengals, the Atlanta Zoo’s Yang Yang the Giant Panda predicted the winner of the Peach Bowl and didn’t even have LSU getting past the Sooners. It should be noted that Yang Yang has been right once in the past three years, taking Alabama to beat Washington in 2017, but maybe, just maybe, the panda knows its Heisman lore and was aware that Burrow will be facing runner-up Jalen Hurts.
This will be the eighth time the players who were Nos. 1 and 2 in the voting will face off in the bowls, with the second-place finisher winning five of those previous meetings. The first was in 1974 when USC’s Anthony Davis beat Ohio State’s Archie Griffin in 1974; Pitt’s Hugh Green followed by taking down South Carolina’s George Rogers in 1980; Oklahoma’s Josh Heupel topped Florida State’s Chris Weinke (2000); Texas’ Vince Young beat USC’s Reggie Bush in ’05 and last season, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa got the best of Murray and the Sooners.
Those two winners who held serve were USC’s Carson Palmer against Iowa’s Brad Banks in ’02 and Leinart vs. Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson and Jason White in ’04 when he and the Trojans won the title.
With all that history weighing against him, why will Burrow be different?
He’s already been tested in a way that those other Heisman-winning QBs in the playoff era were not — and frankly, no winner was ever tested — and passed with flying colors.
While Burrow had already faced five top-10 opponents, the most of any player who won the trophy, the Tigers star has dealt with four defenses ranked 19th or higher in FBS. By comparison, Mariota’s 2014 schedule had just two Ds that were 57th or better, Mayfield had three in the top 79 in ’17 and Murray’s ’18 slate had two defenses ranked higher than 67th.
Against those top-19 defenses — Georgia (fourth), Florida (10th), Alabama (17th) and Auburn (19th) — Burrow averaged 339 yards per game and totaled 11 touchdowns and just one interception with a 78.3 completion percentage (112 for 143) and the Tigers averaged 37 points per game and by 13 points per game, including 37-10 vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
It would stand to reason that he won’t flinch against playoff defense that are No. 1 (Clemson) and No. 2 (Ohio State) in total defense as well as against the pass.
And if you’re into omens, fairytale endings or New Orleans voodoo, LSU has played in each of the last three national championships staged at the Superdome, which will host the Jan. 13 game. Two of those — 2007 and 2003 — ended with the Tigers as champions, and the teams they beat are two of the teams in this year’s playoff field: Oklahoma and Ohio State.
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