Bracketology: Will North Carolina even make NCAA Tournament?

Cole Anthony’s injury and a lack of talent have North Carolina basketball in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010.

The world was a lot different in 2010. Barack Obama was the president, Kesha was dominating the music charts, and LeBron James had never played a game for the Miami Heat. There are plenty of differences between 2020 and 2010 but one thing is similar, North Carolina basketball.

Just as Roy Williams’s squad is enduring a dumpster fire of a season this year, so too were they back in 2010. In fact, strictly looking at the record, the 2010 Tar Heel team that missed the NCAA Tournament was in better shape at this point in the season than the current version. That team started off 12-3 in its first 15 games. This North Carolina team is 8-7 in its first 15, and is 1-3 in conference play after a loss to Pitt last night. So to put it lightly, things aren’t looking good for the Tar Heels right now.

The good news for North Carolina is that in 2010, they would end the rest of their season going 5-12 in their final 17 games. That includes a horrible stretch where they lost 10 of 12 games, finishing with a conference record of 5-11. Things aren’t that bad yet this season, and if they can find a way to string some wins together in the ACC, along with getting a couple of upset victories, they should still be able to vault themselves into the tournament.

But it isn’t going to be easy. This North Carolina team just doesn’t have the talent that their predecessors had. It didn’t have that much talent even with five-star and leading scorer Cole Anthony on the floor. But since he left the game against Virginia in early December with a partially torn meniscus, their offense has been abysmal.

In the seven games since the loss of Anthony, the Tar Heels have averaged just 67.2 points per game. They are shooting just 40.4 percent from the field which ranks No. 289 in the country, and 30.1% from 3-point land. That ranks No. 292 in the country. This is in large part due to a combination of the loss of Anthony, and just a lack of scoring on the team. Williams admitted after their loss to Georgia Tech that this was the least gifted team he has ever coached. That doesn’t bode well for the team chemistry going forward and things are only going to get tougher.

The struggles of the Tar Heels this year don’t all fall on the loss of Anthony though. The team lost Coby White, Cameron Johnson, and Nassir Little to the NBA draft last season. All prolific scorers and reliable shooters that the Tar Heels just haven’t been able to replace. Armando Bacot‘s uninspiring play doesn’t help either. The former five-star prospect along with Anthony in the class of 2019 just hasn’t been performing.

The freshman has averaged just 9.4 points and 7.9 rebounds in the 2019-2020 season. If anyone needed to pick up the scoring after Anthony went down, it was him, but that just hasn’t been the case. But the talent is there, it is visible when you watch him play and Williams isn’t a hall of fame coach for nothing. He will be working to get more of that talent out of him.

So can the Tar Heels still make the NCAA Tournament? The answer to that question is yes, but they have already dug themselves a hole and if they don’t stop digging, it might be too late. Getting Anthony back is crucial to their success, he is one of the best players in college basketball and a pure scorer. Which is exactly what the Tar Heels have been missing this season.

In a way, this team reminds me a lot of the Trae Young led Oklahoma team from two years ago. They relied heavily on one person to do their scoring and in the end it got the Sooners to the tournament with a few crucial wins down the stretch. Will Anthony be able to do the same? Only time will tell.

For more NCAA basketball news, analysis, opinion and features, check out more from the FanSided college basketball section to stay on top of the latest action.