Jesse Hart vs. Joe Smith Jr.: Preview and prediction

Jesse Hart and Joe Smith Jr. are used to being contenders, but the winner of this matchup might have a championship future if the stars align correctly.

Light heavyweight boxing contenders Jesse Hart (26-2, 21 KOs) and Joe Smith Jr. (24-3, 20 KOs) have something in common. They’ve demonstrated championship potential but have never won a major title. The winner of their Saturday, Jan. 11 meeting on ESPN could have a future shot at replacing the moniker “contender” with “champion.”

Hart nearly won the WBO super middleweight title on two separate occasions. He dropped close decisions against Gilberto Ramirez in 2017 and 2018. The most recent loss to Ramirez was by majority decision. On the two judges’ scorecards that cost Hart a victory, he lost by two points.

Smith made a name for himself in 2016 when he stopped Andrzej Fonfara in one round in front of Fonfara’s hometown crowd of Chicago. He compounded his upset win over Fonfara into a matchup with the legendary Bernard Hopkins in his final bout shortly before his 52nd birthday. Smith added to his growing reputation by viciously knocking Hopkins out in round 8, sending him through the ropes in the process.

It’s the Smith vs. Hopkins bout that adds intrigue going into this upcoming matchup. Hart is a Philadelphia native, like Hopkins, who he idolized as a young boy. Hart developed a relationship with Hopkins as a child while beginning his boxing journey.

“So when you got that, and then at 9 years old, Bernard Hopkins was calling my father, and they would have talks,” said Hart during a recent media call. “My dad would put Bernard on the phone with me, and he would always encourage me. ‘It’s time to get in the gym. You gotta start running another mile, Jesse.’ These are the things Bernard told me. That inspiration. We’re all inspired by somebody, whoever it may be. When I was a little boy, that was my inspiration.”

Coming into his fight with Smith, Hart credited his desire for revenge stemming from the Smith vs. Hopkins fight as his primary motivation.

“This fight is more of a family thing,” said Hart. “With family, it’s personal. That’s family, so at the end of the day, for me on my end, this is for my family. This is not only for myself. This is my family. This is my big brother, Bernard Hopkins.”

While Hart is motivated by a sense of vengeance, Smith’s mind is on obtaining a world title.

“I’m fighting to become a world champion,” said Smith during Tuesday’s conference call.

Hart is the odds on favorite to win according to OddsShark.com, and for a good reason. He has two close losses on his record, while Smith has three, with one being a TKO. The win-loss factor is important, but in this case, it is a bit misleading.

Smith’s TKO loss to Eddie Caminero in 2010 came after he suffered a broken jaw. He broke his jaw again against Sullivan Barrera in 2017 but finished the fight while enduring the gruesome injury. Smith is tough and has more than a puncher’s chance against Hart.

Hart and Smith are known, knockout punchers. Hart has a 75 percent KO rating, and Smith is close behind at 74 percent. Hart stops his opponents by letting his hands go and breaking down opponents over time. Smith has more one-punch power.

Hart is there to be hit, but he’s the more polished boxer of the two. Smith needs a KO to beat Hart. He doesn’t have the refined skills to defeat Hart by decision. It’s unlikely that Smith will land a homerun punch against Hart, who is 3 inches taller. Hart has hit the canvas before, but he has always gotten back up.

Hart will give Smith problems using movement around the ring and will stifle his offense by throwing power punches often. If Smith doesn’t break his jaw for the third time, he should make it through all 10 rounds. However, Hart should win a fairly dominant unanimous decision.

Hart vs. Smith will be a viewer-friendly boxing contest. Tune in to ESPN at 10 p.m ET to enjoy the main event.