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Projecting when Alex Ovechkin will pass Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record

By Brad Berreman

UNIONDALE, NEW YORK - JANUARY 18: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals celebrates his empty net goal against the New York Islanders which tied him with Steve Yzerman on the NHL all time goal scoring list at NYCB Live's Nassau Coliseum on January 18, 2020 in Uniondale, New York. The Capitals defeated the Islanders 6-4. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
UNIONDALE, NEW YORK - JANUARY 18: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals celebrates his empty net goal against the New York Islanders which tied him with Steve Yzerman on the NHL all time goal scoring list at NYCB Live's Nassau Coliseum on January 18, 2020 in Uniondale, New York. The Capitals defeated the Islanders 6-4. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /
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Alex Ovechkin is now a top-10 goal scorer in NHL history, but when could he pass Wayne Gretzky for the all-time lead?

With eight goals over a three-game stretch last week, including back-to-back hat tricks, Alex Ovechkin became a top-10 goal scorer in NHL history. His 692 career goals tie him for ninth place with Steve Yzerman, and No. 8 Mark Messier (694 career goals) will cede that spot to Ovechkin in short order.

In his 15th NHL season at 34-years-old, and trailing Wayne Gretzky by 202 goals, the idea Ovechkin could become the league’s all-time leading goal scorer seems far-fetched. But he had a league-leading 51 goals last year and, albeit altered by those eight goals in his last three games, he’s on pace to score 56 goals this season.

If Ovechkin gets to 56 goals this season, he would be at 714 goals for his career in seventh place all-time and in close range of Phil Esposito‘s 717 goals in sixth place. More specifically, he’d be 180 behind Gretzky’s 894 goals and 52 behind Jaromir Jagr for third all-time.

As expected, Ovechkin shoots the puck plenty. He’s second in the league in shots this year with 224, with a shooting percentage (15.2 percent) right in line with last year (15.1 percent).

But let’s more realistically put Ovechkin at last year’s 51 goals when this season is done. That puts him at 709 for his career, 185 behind Gretzky and 186 from passing him. Four more years at 46.5 goals per season gets it done, which lines up with Ovechkin’s average of 47 goals per season for a full season. Add a fifth season, and the average goals required per season for Ovechkin to pass Gretzky drops to 37.

Ovechkin will turn 38 before what would be a fourth season after this one (2023-24). For some comparison, Gretzky retired after his age-38 season (1998-99), and he did not score more than 25 goals in any of his final five seasons despite playing 80 or more games three times in that span.

Health will of course be key for Ovechkin for him to have any chance to pass Gretzky, as will maintaining a high level of production. But he has missed more than four games in a season just once in his career, with 82, 82 and 81 games played over the last three full seasons. If he were to play into his 40s, and as long as he’s healthy it’s possible, it’s virtually a foregone conclusion Ovechkin will pass Gretzky and top 900 career goals.

It will be a tall task for Ovechkin to become the NHL’s all-time goal scorer. But breaking down the numbers and allowing for some rare longevity makes it feel possible, as one of the best pure goal scorers in league history makes a run at what has been considered an unbreakable record.

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