Bracketology: Will ACC get more than 3 teams in NCAA Tournament?

The ACC, a traditional powerhouse league, is in the midst of a down year that could see as few as three schools earn bids to the NCAA Tournament.

It’s time to get familiar with bracketology and how it’ll affect the NCAA Tournament, specifically the ACC.

While the Big 12 gets respect for being the toughest conference top-to-bottom in college basketball, the ACC annually jockeys with the Big Ten for the crown of the best league in America. Just a year ago, the ACC sent seven teams to the NCAA Tournament, with Virginia cutting down the nets to claim the league’s third championship of the past decade.

That success has not carried over to this season, with the league as a whole in the midst of a nasty down cycle much like the ones the Pac-12 has experienced in recent years. As of right now, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update has just five ACC schools in the field of 68, with one (Virginia Tech) in a First Four game with another (NC State) barely avoiding that fate as one of the last four teams with a bye to the Round of 64.

Notably absent from Lunardi’s field is Virginia, which is just 12-6 and floundering in a subpar league thanks to a pathetic offense, averaging 55.1 points per game, the third-worst output in the country. That has set the Cavaliers, who still have the country’s best scoring defense, back significantly.

Virginia’s best win this season came against North Carolina in December, and that victory has significantly lost its luster with the Tar Heels going in the tank after the injury to freshman point guard Cole Anthony.

UNC coach Roy Williams has said this is the least talented Tar Heels team he has ever coached and that he deserved to be fired after North Carolina lost to Clemson earlier this season.

Another traditional tournament team from the ACC that is having a down year is Syracuse, whose best win is over that mediocre Virginia team and hasn’t done much else. NC State is in mostly by taking care of business with a home win over Wisconsin, but they haven’t exactly done much more than avoid bad losses at the moment.

The other team Lunardi has on the bubble at the moment is Virginia Tech, which can offer up a five-point neutral floor win over Michigan State in Maui and a win over fellow bubbler NC State, but a poor non-league schedule could come back to haunt them in the eyes of the selection committee.

At this point, there are only three sure-fire locks to get to the NCAA Tournament out of the ACC: Duke, Louisville and Florida State.

That means the rest of the ACC hopefuls won’t get many shots at the type of Quadrant I wins that will make the difference between being picked for the dance or being left to stew in the NIT.

It is an unfamiliar position for the ACC, which is simply in a down cycle thanks to Anthony’s ill-timed injury sinking the Tar Heels and Virginia’s anemic offense ruining another potential contender.

Five teams seem like the absolute most the ACC can get right now barring a dramatic reversal in fortune for one of those two or seeing a team like Virginia Tech run through conference play with only a handful of losses.

This doesn’t mean the ACC is done for good, especially as the Pac-12 has shown this year by rebounding after a brutal season. The ACC will see better days, but the league’s representation in the NCAA Tournament figures to be perilously thin this season.

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