An early look at the 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

What does this mean for the returning candidates?

Among those who were denied election in 2020, the biggest winner has to be Curt Schilling, as he made a significant jump in voting percentage for the third straight year, this time from 60.9% to 70.0%. When we consider this, combined with the fact that there are few Hall of Fame worthy starting pitchers up for election in the next few years, it’s looking good for Schilling to gain election, possibly next year in what would be his ninth time on the ballot.

It remains less likely that the players who are linked to steroids – specifically Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens – will be able to take advantage of the lack of new candidates next year. Bonds only jumped from 59.1% to 60.7%, while Clemens only jumped from 59.5% to 61.0%. With only two years left for both, it’s not looking good for either of them.

Some of the other candidates still have plenty of reason to be hopeful, especially after we just witnessed Walker go from 20.3% in his first year of eligibility – and just 54.6% a year ago – to earning an invite to Cooperstown. Omar Vizquel (52.6% in his third year) looks to have a strong chance to eventually make it, while Scott Rolen (3rd year), Todd Helton (2nd year), and Billy Wagner (5th year) are among those who made significant jumps this year and therefore cannot be totally counted out.

Again, these players figure to benefit from the lack of strong candidates next year, though they won’t gain election in 2021. The prediction here is that Schilling will be the only Baseball Writers Association of America candidate who will get in next year, while Vizquel will get in some time in the next 2-3 years.