Super Bowl 54 prediction, NFL power rankings, free agency rumors and more
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers cap the NFL’s 100th season this Sunday, and it should be a fantastic affair.
All Super Bowls aren’t created equal.
The ’85 Bears were always going to crush Tony Eason. The Doomsday Defense was going to hammer the Orange Crush Broncos. These were almost predetermined outcomes.
Super Bowl LIV is no such gimme. In fact, it’s one of the best matchups in the game’s history.
Las Vegas is always the NFL’s impartial conscious. Want to know what smart people think of the tilt? Ask an oddsmaker. This week’s line is one of the closest in Super Sunday’s history, with the Kansas City Chiefs laying 1.5 points against the San Francisco 49ers.
Frankly, it’s tough to see how either team could claim to be significantly better than the other.
San Francisco has the game’s best front four with DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. Kansas City has one of the league’s best offensive lines, anchored by tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz.
The 49ers have a terrific rushing attack due to head coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, George Kittle’s blocking and Raheem Mostert’s speed. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have allowed a paltry 4.38 yards per carry, with only Josh Jacobs eclipsing the 100-yard plateau.
In the AFC Championship Game, Kansas City limited Derrick Henry to 69 yards on 16 carries while only stacking the box 12 percent of the time.
Offensively, the Chiefs are a track meet. Patrick Mahomes is the league’s best quarterback, showcased by his nine touchdowns and zero turnovers this offseason. San Francisco is the league’s top-ranked pass defense with speed at all three levels.
Bluntly, this is a coin flip for the championship. Scary stuff for either fanbase.
So who to pick? Let’s revisit the first matchup above.
If the 49ers can get consistent pressure without blitzing, they’re in great shape. San Francisco notched 48 sacks this season, despite Ford missing ample time with injuries. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh can force one-on-one matchups with certain alignments, and create confusion with lightning-quick stunts and twists.
To combat this, the Chiefs need great games across their line. Fisher has been good this year but can be beaten on the speed rush. Bosa will undoubtedly test this — and get plenty of advice from his Los Angeles Charger brother, Joey. Schwartz is arguably the game’s best right tackle, though, so advantage Kansas City regardless of who he goes against.
The real test will be inside. The Chiefs can always chip and help with a running back if Bosa becomes a problem for Fisher, but can the combination of Stefan Wisniewski, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Austin Reiter hold up against Armstead and Buckner? Wisniewski has proven very valuable since signing at midseason, but Reiter is a first-year starter. He’s played well, but look for Saleh to attack him, creating pressure for Mahomes up the middle.
Should San Francisco succeed in getting Mahomes on the run, it can win. If Kansas City’s pocket holds up, it’s over. The Chiefs are too fast and too talented to be covered for more than three seconds with any regularity.
Ultimately, give me Kansas City.
The aforementioned trench battle should have wins for both sides. Despite the 49ers being slightly better across their roster, the difference lies in the Chiefs having Mahomes. Maybe San Francisco has the tonic. Maybe the Niners harass him and win a sixth title for the franchise.
It’s absolutely plausible, but betting against Mahomes is done at one’s own peril.
Kansas City 30, San Francisco 24.
Power rankings
Top 10 Super Bowls of all time
1. Super Bowl XXV – New York Giants 20, Buffalo Bills 19
2. Super Bowl XLII – New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14
3. Super Bowl XXXIV – St. Louis Rams 23, Tennessee Titans 16
4. Super Bowl XLIX – New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
5. Super Bowl LI – New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 (OT)
6. Super Bowl XXXIII – San Francisco 49ers 20, Cincinnati Bengals 16
7. Super Bowl XLIII – Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23
8. Super Bowl XXXVI – New England Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17
9. Super Bowl XXXVIII – New England Patriots 32, Carolina Panthers 29
10. Super Bowl XIII – Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31
Quotable
"“Dak’s our leader. He’s the heart and soul of our team. He’s going to get his money.”"
– Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott on quarterback Dak Prescott’s impending free agency
Prescott will get his money, one way or the other.
Dallas can play hardball with its quarterback, but owner Jerry Jones is doing himself no favors. The price for Prescott will only rise with the salary cap adjustment. If Jones slaps the franchise or transition tag on Prescott, he’ll carry a cap charge of more than $30 million into the offseason, hamstringing efforts to retain other players while dipping into free agency.
If Jones tags Prescott and allows the situation to drag into the summer, he’ll only pay more should Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson ink extensions with their respective teams.
Podcast
Random stat
Miami is the only city to host consecutive Super Bowls.
The Orange Bowl was the venue for Super Bowls II and III, with the Green Bay Packers beating the Oakland Raiders in the former, and the New York Jets pulled off the shocking upset against the Baltimore Colts in the latter.
Info learned this week
1. Senior Bowl provides a glimpse at risers in this year’s draft
The Senior Bowl is the first real piece of the draft puzzle. Let’s examine the fallout.
Having been in Mobile for three days, a few observations:
- Baylor WR Denzel Mims is worth monitoring. Elite traits.
- UCLA RB Joshua Kelley will make someone look smart
- Oregon QB Justin Herbert is going to interview very well
- Some team likely talks themselves into Jordan Love in the first
GOING DEEP: Herbert, Love earn acclaim at Senior Bowl
Alright, so the quarterbacks. Herbert played very well in practice and was MVP in the game. He came into the week with the most to lose as the highest-rated prospect by most to visit Mobile. He came away with rave reviews across the board. During his media scrum, Herbert answered all our questions intelligently and without a slip-up. Sounds easy, but it’s a high-wire act.
Provided Herbert’s medicals check out well and he doesn’t bomb Oregon’s pro day or the NFL Scouting Combine, it would be surprising if he’s not a top-10 pick. So where does he wind up?
While mock drafts are fun, taking them as gospel is a fool’s errand. However, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is going to the Cincinnati Bengals. After that, the Washington Redskins are on the clock. They could take Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young or dangle the pick for a host of draft capital.
GOING DEEP: Denzel Mims is demanding attention
One NFL scout told FanSided that if Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s rehab goes well, his stock remains very high. In short, he’ll be in real competition with Herbert to be the second quarterback off the board. Either could go as high as No. 2, should the Redskins trade out.
The most likely candidates to trade in? The Miami Dolphins have three first-round selections, including the No. 5 overall choice. If they want the choice badly enough, they can outbid anybody. Then there are the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers. Both need a franchise quarterback, and pick sixth and seventh, respectively. Would either make a bold move to move up or simply hold firm and evaluate the board then?
GOING DEEP: Kelley, Pittman look like Pac-12 stars to watch
Finally, Love. Never rule out a quarterback going higher than you think. The position always skyrockets because of its importance and scarcity. The Utah State product needs to clean up his decision-making, but his arm talent and physical build are tantalizing to NFL teams. With three months left in the draft process, he’s firmly in the mid-first round conversation, right where the Indianapolis Colts pick. A team to watch, potentially looking for a long-term solution.
2. Franchise tag deadline will be busier than normal
The Collective Bargaining Agreement will take center stage this offseason.
With one year remaining on the deal between the league and players, there’s an interesting subplot to the impending free agency. For this year only, teams can use both the franchise and transition tags, allowing them to control a pair of players about to be unrestricted.
In most cases, this is irrelevant. However, for teams like the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it could prove valuable.
Tennessee has running back Derrick Henry, quarterback Ryan Tannehill, cornerback Logan Ryan and right tackle Jack Conklin scheduled to hit the open market. All four are worthy of a tag, and if general manager Jon Robinson can’t come to terms with a few players he’d like to retain, so be it. While the cap charges will be high — especially on Tannehill, Ryan or Conklin — the Titans have a projected $54 million in space, so it’s not impossible to afford.
The Buccaneers are even more flush with cash, having more than $81 million available. Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht has pass-rusher Shaquil Barrett and quarterback Jameis Winston to make decisions on, although it seems highly unlikely either will be allowed to test free agency.
Having two tags for the Titans and Buccaneers may wind up being a huge boon.
3. Paton’s pullout says plenty about Browns situation
George Paton decided against being a general manager candidate for the Cleveland Browns. Not a great look for a franchise longing for better optics.
With the Browns plucking former Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to be their head coach, getting Paton from the same organization seemed a smart move. However, Paton reportedly had concerns about the power structure in Cleveland, something we’ve heard time and again since Jimmy and Dee Haslam bought the team in 2012.
If the Haslams want to win, they need to get out of the daily football operations. Coaches shouldn’t be asked to sit in meetings and explain their gameplans. Frankly, the Haslams, nor any other owner in football, known enough about the sport to understand the complexity of one anyway. To believe they do is the root problem.
The Browns might end up with a great general manager, but Haslam will ruin them if he doesn’t step back.
4. Pro Bowl should be overhauled in next CBA
The Pro Bowl was played on Sunday, Know the score? Care to know? Exactly.
The game has long been a farce, one that many players are quick to avoid if possible. The game is in Orlando, a far cry from the vacation destination of Hawaii. It’s also more travel, more time away and a game with nothing but downside.
When the NFL and Players Association agrees on a new deal, it should include eliminating the Pro Bowl while still naming Pro Bowlers. This way, players still get their incentives and bonuses and Hall of Fame voters still have another metric to go on.
If the league wants to keep an event for the Pro Bowlers, stick to a skills competition. There’s virtually no chance of injuries and it’s more entertaining.
5. Brees non-committal on future with Saints
The New Orleans Saints and their fans are holding their collective breath.
During Pro Bowl weekend, Saints quarterback Drew Brees wouldn’t commit to playing another year. A pending free agent, Brees is 41 years old but still an elite-level player. Over the past four years, Brees has completed more than 70 percent of his throws and eclipsed 7.7 yards per attempt in each campaign. For New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis, remaining a championship contender means keeping Brees in the fold.
It would be shocking if Brees returns and plays anywhere but in New Orleans. However, with Brees uncertain of the future, the end is clearly within sight.
History lesson
With the Raiders officially in Las Vegas, they’ve now called three cities home in the past 26 years.
Mark Davis’ club is the only AFC team to relocate so often. In the NFC, the Cardinals and Rams have each been in three different cities. The former played in Chicago and St. Louis before settling in Arizona, while the latter was in Cleveland, Los Angeles and St. Louis before coming to L.A. in 2016.
For the NFL, this move is a win.
The Raiders get a brand new stadium, and the league gets a venue in a signature city that will host Super Bowls for decades to come. It also opens up for new partners, especially in the current climate where gambling is being national accepted.
Still, one has to feel for Oakland and its fans. The Raiders have an incredible history, and it was cast aside amidst ugly politics and a lackluster effort to stay.
Parting shot
Eli Manning retired on Friday. He leaves behind one of the more controversial legacies in NFL history.
Some will see Manning as the two-time old champion who beat the vaunted Patriots, including an undefeated version. They’ll remember the David Tyree play and his perfectly-placed deep ball to Mario Manningham in Super Bowl XLVI. They’ll think of a winner who made his biggest plays in the biggest moments. The quintessential master of the clutch.
An equal number of people will remember Manning as playing 16 seasons and winning playoff games in only two of them. They’ll think of his .500 record, his 244 interceptions (12th all-time) and his luck for a nameplate reading Manning and not Smith.
Both those legacies will endure, and both are correct.
Manning was never half the player his brother was. He was never elite and was not anywhere near an MVP conversation or even a First-Team All-Pro distinction. Often, Manning was average.
But Manning was also brilliant in the Super Bowl. Twice. Against the Patriots. He also won titles in New York and not New Orleans. Come the Hall of Fame discussions, Manning will have significant backing from a longtime owner in John Mara, a likely Hall of Fame head coach in Tom Coughlin and his brother, Peyton.
He’ll have a tidal wave of support. It matters.