What if Bengals pass on Joe Burrow in NFL Draft?

It will not happen. There is no way that the Bengals pass on Joe Burrow in the 2020 NFL Draft. But what if they decided to take another player instead?

Let’s be clear about this, Joe Burrow is going to be drafted first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals. But for now, let’s hop off the hype train and venture into the world of what-if. Let’s say the Bengals want to pass on Burrow to take Chase Young with the intention of finding their franchise quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft

Nitpicking the greatest season college football has ever seen

Anyone who knocks the season Burrow just had is sipping the “Haterade.” He broke just about every standard measure of greatness, smashing records during his Heisman and national championship-winning season. It might be the greatest season by any college quarterback in the 150-year history of the sport.

He also passes the eye test. He just carved up the best defense in college football in front of the whole world. There are bits of orange and white still stuck between his teeth. And it came out of nowhere.

That’s the thing. It came out of nowhere, and scouts need to figure out how so they can tell if it’s lasting.

Burrow spent five seasons in college football at two elite football programs. It wasn’t until his final season he was more than a scout-team prospect thanks to a passing game coordinator, Joe Brady, who was so good at his job that he’s now the offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers.

Consider what Patrick Mahomes might have done if he were playing last year. He’s only one year older than Burrow. Or maybe Lamar Jackson or Dwayne Haskins this year. They’re both younger than Burrow. You’re about to spend a whole lot of draft capital (and maybe the highest trade value in recent memory) on a bet that 2019 wasn’t an outlier?

Who has ever made a jump like this?

The case for Chase

Young was a nightmare for opposing offenses all season. He was impossible to stop one-on-one, carrying on the tradition of absurd Buckeye defensive ends, following in the footsteps of the Joey and Nick Bosa, and he’s probably a better prospect than both of those Pro Bowlers.

People talk about Burrow like he’s the only player in the draft with ties to Ohio, and that it should matter where he grew up. That fans will appreciate it more if their success is led by a guy who grew up in the same state as their team. Ask Patriots fans how much they care that Tom Brady is from California.

Young has a history of success across two full seasons. Defensive lineman with sustained success at a high level is less risky. While he is about the size of Jadeveon Clowney, Young isn’t even old enough to (legally) drink in the United States.

The best player and most important player are two different things, and it’s clear this year, just as it was last year, and just as it will be next year that quarterback is the most important position. But Young is the best player in the draft makes the thought of him lining up on your favorite team exciting. That he might be better than either of the Bosas is even better. It’s not enough to have the Bengals move off of Burrow, but if they did, Young is the dude to pick.

And while they’ll still have a need for a quarterback, adding Young won’t significantly alter the Bengals’ win projections in 2021 so they should be in a position to draft Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State’s Justin Fields near the top of next year’s draft.

Young and Lawrence/Fields is better than Burrow and a mystery pick next year.

It won’t happen

Narratives are dangerous. They can convince smart people that risky propositions are safer than they actually are. Worse still, we might even think that something can’t miss, that they are inevitable. That just isn’t true. Teams (and fans) need to understand that they are going to be wrong. Every draft pick, or trade, is a bet. It’s about making the smartest bet available.

Look, we know it’s not going to happen. The Bengals are going to draft Burrow. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, and the Bengals need one. They’re going to take a bet that the Ferrari has an engine rather than bet that the Lexus will give them 200,000 miles.

In reality, there aren’t many players who are worth the first overall pick, and we never know who they are until after the fact. The last sure thing at quarterback was Andrew Luck and Ryan Grigson’s malpractice forced him into early retirement.

The Bengals will draft Burrow and hope he’ll deliver instant success like Luck did for the Colts, albeit with a longer career, and one with a happier ending.

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