5 reasons the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl 54

2. Stopping The Run

On immediate paper, the league’s 26th-ranked run defense from the regular season going against the league’s second-best rush offense looks like a dramatic mismatch. Add in how the 49ers ran through the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers virtually from the word go in their first two playoff games, and it only looks worse for the Chiefs.

But as Solomon Wilcots cited in a piece for Pro Football Focus, Kansas City’s run defense has notably improved lately.

"Over the first 10 games of the season, the Chiefs’ run defense allowed 148 yards per game (31st) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tied 28th). During those 10 games, they allowed five different players to rush for 100-plus yards, all while giving up 77 first-down runs (31st) and 38 runs of 10-plus yards (30th). They allowed a 30th-ranked 0.052 EPA per rush attempt, earned a 32nd-ranked 53.3 team run-defense grade, brought the opposing ball-carrier down for a loss or no gain on a league-low 10.9% of their snaps, averaged a league-worst average depth of tackle of 4.95 yards downfield and gave their opponents a 23rd-ranked average of 1.78 yards per carry before contact by a defender. However, over their last eight games, including the postseason, the Chiefs’ run defense has allowed 93.6 yards per game, improving their standing from 31st to 14th, and they have allowed only four rushing over their last eight games. After allowing only one 100-yard rusher (Oakland‘s Josh Jacobs, 104) over that span, the Chiefs’ run defense also allowed fewer first down runs (40, 19th) and runs of 10 plus yards (19, 17th)."

Kansas City’s run defense got better down the stretch, if only on the surface as Wilcots also noted, and their holding of the league’s leading rusher Derrick Henry to 69 yards in the AFC title game stands as the most recent and notable evidence. If only based on that momentum, the Chiefs enter facing a variable and productive San Francisco running game with some confidence. If Tevin Coleman (shoulder) is limited or entirely unavailable on Sunday, the challenge gets lessened.

If they get out to a lead, any weakness against the run may be rendered a moot point for the Chiefs on Super Bowl Sunday. It should be clear early if they will be able to contain the 49ers’ running game, but a fully healthy Chris Jones and an extra week to prepare makes the odds tilt toward them being able to do so.