Why Chiefs can beat 49ers in Super Bowl 54
Super Bowl LIV figures to be a tight contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, but there are a lot of reasons to believe the Lombardi Trophy will be going to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in 50 years.
This Super Bowl matchup is, without a doubt, one of the most intriguing ones the NFL has gotten in the past decade. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers should bring plenty of energy and juice to a game that needs it after suffering through a 13-3 snooze fest thanks to a defensively dominant gameplan from New England Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick.
The spread in this one is very close, and a lot of it has to do with the fact that these teams stack up very evenly with one another. The Chiefs have an explosive offense led by the best quarterback in football, while the 49ers will look to counter with a strong rushing attack and ferocious defense.
The mantra usually goes that defense wins championships, so logic would dictate the 49ers would win this game here, but special players can transcend a defense. Mahomes is that kind of player for the Chiefs, and he should absolutely be the difference maker in the game.
There is no doubt the 49ers’ game plan will be to control the clock by running the football, limiting Mahomes’ possessions to reduce the amount of damage he can do against them. That won’t work for the 49ers because Mahomes and the Chiefs offense can move at lightning speed thanks to a series of explosive, big play receivers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman.
The Houston Texans learned that lesson the hard way, jumping out to a 24-0 lead only to watch Mahomes wipe it out in the span of a quarter, scoring 41 unanswered points to give the Chiefs a lead they would never relinquish. The last offense that was truly this explosive to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 Rams, and this Chiefs team has its fair share of similarities to the Greatest Show on Turf.
While Mahomes is by far the biggest reason that the Chiefs will win the football game, he isn’t the only one. The Chiefs also feature one of the NFL’s best coaches on their sideline in Andy Reid, who has done nothing but win throughout his NFL career.
Reid could have that ring already if Donovan McNabb wasn’t sick and throwing up in the huddle during the final drive of Super Bowl XXXIX, and some questionable decision-making over the years has led to Reid getting labeled as the next Marty Schottenheimer. That isn’t fair to Reid, who is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the league and will come up with a game plan that should be highly effective — even against the 49ers’ stout defense.
The big key for the Chiefs in this game should actually be how their defense holds up against the 49ers’ running game, which San Francisco will go to at will after using it to bury Green Bay early in the NFC Championship game. The Chiefs’ run defense wasn’t great during the season, but they have been sharper during the playoffs, holding the Texans to 94 yards on 21 carries while limiting Derrick Henry to 69 yards on 19 carries after he ran for over 180 in back-to-back games.
The strength of the Kansas City defense is its pass rush, which features Chris Jones and Frank Clark up front to put tremendous pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers’ passing attack is one that relies on quick throws to get the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands, so the Chiefs’ pass rush will be key to disrupting his rhythm by messing up the pocket.
The other positive for the Chiefs on defense is that they have a good option to cover George Kittle in safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger has the speed to stay with Kittle, who is a matchup nightmare due to his ability to run after the catch, and his tackling ability should be of major import there.
The most important factor the Chiefs have on their side in this game, however, is experience. This marks the second straight deep playoff run for Mahomes and the majority of this core — a direct contrast to the 49ers, who have a young team that doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience.
That experience will pay dividends in the tight spots, especially since Garoppolo hasn’t had to face the pressure of making a big throw in a big spot with everything on the line. Mahomes has done that and come through on the other side, and all of these factors added together are a clear sign that the Chiefs will emerge victorious in Super Bowl LIV.