Australian Open: can Dominic Thiem break the Big 3 streak in slams? Up next, Djokovic

Dominic Thiem is into his third grand slam final, having defeated his next-gen peer, “Sascha” Zverev in the semis, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Can he dethrone the “King of Australia,” Novak Djokovic, in his first Melbourine final on Sunday?

Dominic Thiem has been one of those exceptional talents who has been knocking on the door of the “Big 3” — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic — for some time, but has just always come up short. He’s come close, most notably in the last two French Open finals against Rafa, only to watch one of the great titans of the sport walk away with the big trophy. Dominic Thiem is 26 years old, and part of the frustrated mid-20s layer of incredible tennis stars who can’t seem to break the streak that the Big 3 have held onto in the tennis majors.

Here’s why I think that will end on Sunday at the Australian Open.

Novak Djokovic owns their head-to-head, with six wins vs. four by the Austrian. However, Thiem’s wins have come later in his rivalry with Djokovic, including the last time the world No. 5 beat the 16-time slam champion at the ATP Finals last November in three sets. Known for his superior clay court play, Thiem’s victory in London was his first hard court win over Djokovic. If he defeats the seven time AO-winner, he would be only the second man to beat both Nadal and Djokovic to win a grand slam title. The other man? Not Federer, but his Swiss compatriot, Stan Wawrinka.

"“It’s unbelievable,” Thiem said afterwards in his on-court interview with John McEnroe, according to ESPN. “When I reached the Roland Garros final, I played Rafa twice. He had won the tournament 10 times already. Now I’m playing Djokovic, who’s the king of Australia. He’s won seven times, more than anyone. Looks like I am always playing the kings of a particular Grand Slam, but I will try my best. To be in the Australian Open finals is unreal. What a start to the season.”"

Djokovic will be gunning for his eighth AO title, surpassing his own record, and adding to his GS tally with a 17th title, putting him within two of Rafa’s record and three of Fed’s — an uncomfortable margin for any of the Big 3. His matches in Melbourne have proceeded in smoother fashion, all three-setters with the exception of his first round. Federer started out their semi up 4-1 in the first set, but the Serbian was able to shift the balance and take advantage of a clearly injured Federer to book his assured spot in the final. Unlike Federer and Nadal, Djokovic has never lost a final in Australia.

But Thiem’s semifinal opponent, Zverev, thinks the Austrian can do it.

“I think he’s playing the best tennis of his life,” the 22-year-old Zverev said in his press conference after his loss.

Thiem battled jitters on Friday to eek out the win over his German counterpart, another next-gen star, who broke through to his first grand slam semifinal. It was a tight match, noted for some incredible moments of sportsmanship. If this is any indication of how the next generation of tennis starts will conduct themselves, Thiem and Zverev will make a fine transition from the time of the Big 3.

Of course, they need to win a grand slam first.

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If he wins his maiden slam on Sunday, Thiem will overtake Federer as the new world No. 3, a career high. If there’s one player who has scored some major breakthrough wins over the Big 3, it’s Thiem, including his first Masters 1000 trophy last year with a defeat over Federer in Indian Wells.

Pundits aren’t picking the 26-year-old Austrian, giving the 32-year-old Djokovic the mental edge over Thiem in his first hard court grand slam final, against the best defender the game has ever seen, on the court Djokovic likes the best. The Serb will be in his comfort zone. Twelve out of the last 14 AO winners have either been Djokovic or Federer. Can the Austrian overcome his nerves to put a new name on the roster of grand slam winners?

Dominic Thiem has been working so hard to get to this very moment. He may defy all expectation on Sunday. A win for the 26-year-old would certainly set the stage for the next generation of men’s tennis players.

The Australian Open women’s final between exciting players, American Sofia Kenin (aged only 21!) and Garbiñe Muguruza– in an incredible comeback– takes place Saturday, 4:30 a.m. ET. The men’s final between Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will play Sunday, 4:30 a.m. ET.