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Will Cole Anthony’s return help North Carolina sneak in NCAA Tournament?

By Rucker Haringey

CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 01: Cole Anthony #2 talks with head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of their game against the Boston College Eaglesat the Dean Smith Center on February 01, 2020 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 01: Cole Anthony #2 talks with head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of their game against the Boston College Eaglesat the Dean Smith Center on February 01, 2020 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /
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Cole Anthony’s return makes North Carolina a dangerous team down the stretch, but can he lift the Tar Heels into the NCAA Tournament?

Cole Anthony is back but is it too late for North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament hopes?

North Carolina basketball fans are used to worrying about NCAA Tournament seeding at this point in the season. After going 4-7 without Anthony, the Tar Heels need a lot of help to make the Big Dance. Fortunately, the return of Anthony from injury gives Roy Williams a chance to escape the grips of the NIT.

UNC still has a mountain to climb if they want to work their way into March Madness. The Tar Heels have a disappointing 3-7 mark in the ACC entering Monday’s game at Florida State. That only puts them a half-game in front of Wake Forest and Miami for last place.

The good news about this year’s ACC is the conference lacks the depth it’s had in the past. The middle of the league is soft and there for the taking. The fact North Carolina still has 10 conference games to play gives Williams’ squad an opportunity to get hot and rocket up the standings.

The downside to the ACC’s mediocrity is UNC won’t have a ton of high-profile opportunities to improve their tournament profile.

Entering Monday, the Tar Heels sit at No. 97 in the NCAA’s Net Rankings. They’ll need to climb into the top 50 to even be considered for an at-large berth.

That means the margin of error for Anthony and his teammates is almost non-existent. Losing at home to Boston College on Saturday night certainly didn’t build any optimism for fans in Chapel Hill. That’s the sort of game UNC was supposed to win handily with Anthony back. The freshman phenom was good, but not great against a struggling BC team. His airball at the buzzer may serve as the epitome of how his team’s season is going to be remembered.

If North Carolina is going to find its way into the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need to get hot very quickly. It’s possible they will need to run the table during the remainder of their regular season if they want to secure an at-large berth. That’s an immense task considering the list of opponents still facing Williams’ club.

In particular, the chances of North Carolina sweeping its two meetings with Duke this year seems unlikely. Traveling to Louisville might represent North Carolina’s biggest challenge on the remaining schedule. The Tar Heels will definitely be heavy underdogs on the road against both the Blue Devils and Cardinals.

That means the most likely route to March Madness for the Tar Heels will be winning the ACC Tournament. That’s why Williams should focus his on getting his team to play better down the stretch. Getting Anthony and his teammates to play their best basketball during March should be the coaching staff’s biggest priority.

Putting all of the team’s hopes on a single-elimination tournament is not ideal. It’s a risk a program with North Carolina’s talent level shouldn’t have to take. Nonetheless, it’s what Anthony and his team must do if they want to crash this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Tar Heel fans shouldn’t expect Anthony’s return to the hardwood to fix all of the team’s problems. When healthy he’s been a good player, averaging 19.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 10 games. but he’s not performed like a transcendent superstar. He scored 26 in his return vs. Boston College, but his 36.7 percent shooting from the field is the biggest room for improvement at this stage in his development.

If UNC is going to turn their season around they’ll need Anthony to work hard on creating better shots for his teammates. His ability to handle the ball puts a ton of pressure on opposing defenders. Unfortunately for Anthony, turning the ball over has greatly reduced his effectiveness as an offensive player this year. His negative assist to turnover ratio (35:34) is an underlying factor for the team’s mediocrity with him in the lineup.

Anthony getting hot from the field and cutting down his turnovers for a four-game stretch in the ACC Tournament could be the path toward cutting down the nets and backing in the NCAA Tournament.

Add it all up and it’s overwhelmingly likely Anthony’s one season at UNC is going to end with a disappointing NIT berth. A dream run to an NCAA Tournament isn’t out of the question, but it’s going to require Anthony to elevate his game and the game of his teammates.

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