Will the Suns’ draft reach for Cameron Johnson actually pay off?

Cameron Johnson was one of the more surprising reaches in the 2019 NBA Draft, but is that risk already paying off for the Phoenix Suns?

Make no mistake about it: When the Phoenix Suns traded down from the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft to add Dario Saric and eventually draft Cameron Johnson at No. 11, they made one of the biggest reaches of the night.

Not only did they turn down their chance to draft a versatile two-way wing in Jarrett Culver at No. 6, but they also passed on Brandon Clarke — the kind of defensive big who would’ve fit perfectly next to Deandre Ayton — in favor of a one-dimensional shooter who was projected by most mocks to go somewhere in the teens or early 20s.

However, as much as that trade remains an example of poor asset management, and as unfortunate as it is that Saric’s tenure with the team feels unlikely to extend beyond this year, Cam Johnson has lived up to his surprisingly high draft stock through the first half of his rookie season.

Ironically enough, his value has come from more or less being who he was supposed to be coming out of North Carolina: an intelligent, lights-out spot-up shooter whose impact didn’t extend much further across the stat sheet. For the Suns, however, the flashes he’s shown in other areas provide hope that James Jones‘ draft-day reach winds up paying off in the long run.

Shooting prowess

The problem with drafting a guy who will turn 24 near the end of his rookie season is there’s not much room for upside. Cam Johnson was the third-oldest player in his draft class, and the only two older than him (Cody Martin and Marial Shayok) were second-round picks. The NBA Draft process is much bigger on the upside of 18- and 19-year-olds than the established talents of three- or four-year college players who basically are who they are.

Luckily, Johnson had a trademark NBA skill that would not only translate from day one but give him a defined niche throughout his career. As a 40.5 percent shooter from 3-point range in college, Johnson’s shooting has been exactly what the doctor ordered in Phoenix; his 39 percent shooting from deep on 4.5 attempts per game rank fifth and seventh among all NBA rookies, respectively.

“He’s shooting the shots that we need him to shoot with extreme confidence, but he’s put the work in,” Devin Booker said. “He has the capability to shoot at that level, and for spacing purposes, that’s what we need.”

The Suns rank 20th in 3-point percentage, so they need all the help they can get on that front. Johnson is rapidly becoming (if he’s not already there) one of the few marksmen in the league whose every release from beyond the arc is expected to fall.

“That’s stuff we talk about with the coaching staff is being locked in every time I check in, on every possession, and executing what we want to execute,” Johnson said.

However, he’s not quite the elite, world-class sniper the Suns will need him to be. Hitting the rookie wall played a factor in his shooting numbers taking a slight downturn from “best shooter in the class” territory, as he’s shot just 30 percent from downtown since the start of January, when he crossed the 30-game threshold.

Still, adjustments to NBA physicality and fatigue aside, his rank in true shooting percentage among qualified rookies (10th) is just good, but not great. The same goes for his conversion rate on catch-and-shoot 3s (39.5 percent, which ranks sixth in the draft class).

The advanced numbers also slap another layer of color on the picture of a one-dimensional spot-up shooter that his game painted in college. A whopping 98.6 percent of his 3-point makes have been assisted, and 87.4 percent of his made field goals overall have similarly required help.

With that being said, there’s no reason for concern over Cam Johnson’s stroke (unlike Mikal Bridges, who has only recently started to get back to the rhythmic release that made him so deadly in college). It’s pretty clear he’ll be an elite sharpshooter soon enough.

Head coach Monty Williams was a believer from the time he first saw Cam Johnson work out during the pre-draft process, and his faith has only grown since that time.

“His ability to make shots and all of that was great, but I was looking at his feet,” Williams said. “I tend to look at footwork probably not as much as I do at a guy’s shot or whatever everybody else looks at. I look at their footwork and their hands, and his feet were really good — full speed, coming off screens, off the dribble, he had really good feet. That was when I really started to see this kid who could probably help our team right away because he was older and he had something that translates to the game right away.”

https://twitter.com/theIVpointplay/status/1228042206218309633?s=20

Among players who have logged at least 700 minutes, Cam Johnson’s 210 points on catch-and-shoot looks rank third in the entire NBA, and the two guys ahead of him (Kendrick Nunn and De’Andre Hunter) have played at least 700 more minutes than the Suns rookie.

On spot-up attempts, Johnson has been good for 1.13 points per possession, with a 40.9 percent frequency on that play type and an effective field goal percentage of 57.9 on those looks. That places him in the 79th percentile league-wide, and all four of those marks are tops on the Suns’ roster. The shooting hasn’t been otherworldly just yet, but it won’t be long before Johnson is one of the NBA’s premier “Don’t Ever Leave Him” guys on the perimeter.

Expanding past one dimension

As good as Cam Johnson is as a shooter, there’s not a lot on the box score or in the advanced stats to alter his pre-draft scouting report. His burgeoning skills in areas aside from just shooting are clear to those who tune in to watch Phoenix on a nightly basis, but not many others just yet.

Though Johnson has shown the ability to drive past undisciplined close-outs on the 3-point line, he’s only had 38 drives in 42 games this season, which ranks 20th out of the 22 rookies who have logged at least 700 minutes. The only two with fewer drives — Grant Williams and Jaxson Hayes — are bigs who rarely handle the ball on the perimeter.

With that being said, he’s also made eight of his 17 shots on those drives (47.1 percent), including one monster drive past Anthony Davis and poster jam over JaVale McGee that exactly no one saw coming.

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1227076855892717568?s=20

Finishes like these are the exception rather than the rule for Johnson, who is only shooting 51.9 percent at the rim — well below the league average of 57.7 percent. It’s not often that he attacks the basket at all, since only 54 of his 270 field goal attempts have come from that area of the floor. Jevon Carter is the only rotation player on the roster with a lower free-throw rate.

Contrary to what the numbers indicate, though, some of his maneuvers offer flares of hope that he’ll improve this aspect of his game in time, especially as he develops NBA strength, timing and anticipation.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1206790111968534529?s=20

Adding a bit more to his scoring arsenal would help in that respect. There’s no question about his potency as a spot-up, Klay Thompson Lite, but his efficacy off the dribble has been limited to brief flashes here and there.

Johnson has only shot 9-for-28 on pull-up jumpers (32.1 percent) and 3-for-9 on pull-up 3s (33.3 percent). Between that and his lack of aggression on drives, he doesn’t offer much of a threat off the bounce. That wouldn’t be as big an issue if he had any interest whatsoever in cutting, but his 0.69 points per possession on cuts place him in the NBA’s 0.3rd percentile. Yes, you read that right — 0.3rd percentile.

A whopping 69.3 percent of Johnson’s points come from 3-pointers, which is the highest number among qualified rookies aside from Chris Clemons. That’s encouraging when it comes to his prowess as a spot-up shooter, but it also speaks to his inability to offer much else on offense at this stage.

Maturity vs. limited upside

To say that a 23- or even a 24-year-old is done growing is excessive, but it’s also true that Cam Johnson’s upside is more limited compared to many of his rookie brethren. The good news is he’s already got the high basketball I.Q. and maturity that can make all the difference in bridging that gap.

“It’s a combination of a number of things with Cam,” Williams said. “He’s a good dude but still has an edge to him. He’s been in really good programs and I just think Cam wants to be a really good player. Those guys are generally locked in.”

The defensive end is one area where Johnson has impressed. He’s often overmatched and overpowered as a small-ball 4, but aside from the usual, expected rookie mistakes here and there, he’s been solid on the ball, capably guarding 2s and 3s with surprising focus.

“Cam tries to make the right plays, it’s not just his shooting,” Williams said. “You’ll see him out there boxing out, you’ll see him contesting shots, you see him keeping guys in front of him. So I believe he comes into the game locked in and ready to play, and that’s rare for a young guy.”

Williams has consistently praised Johnson’s defense, especially with his ability to take charges. The rookie is third on the roster in charges drawn, and Phoenix is 3.0 points per 100 possessions stingier on the defensive end when he’s on the floor.

“His ability to take charges says a lot about him,” Williams said. “Not many young guys have the foot speed, the acumen to get back in transition and guess what guys are going to do and take the charge.”

The faith Williams has in his game is paying dividends for an intelligent first-year player who needs that kind of confidence.

“It feels good,” Johnson said. “It makes me want to keep putting in the work. I think our team has the capability to be pretty good and to be part of something special, so I’m looking to impact the game any way I can and bring home some more wins.”

Will the reach pay off?

Cam Johnson is clearly capable and will continue to expand his game as his gets stronger and more acclimated to the NBA game. The problem is, no matter what he does this season and beyond, he’ll always be compared to the guy the Suns could’ve (and probably should’ve) taken at No. 11.

Johnson has had a fine rookie season, but it’s hard not to look at what Brandon Clarke is doing with the upstart Memphis Grizzlies and wonder how Phoenix — let alone the other nine teams after them — let him slip all that way to No. 21. The Gonzaga product is averaging an impressive 12.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in just 21.8 minutes per game, with advanced stats off the charts. For all the concern over his shooting and baby T-Rex arms, Clarke has made 42 percent of his 3-pointers, as well as a whopping 77.5 percent within three feet of the basket.

Johnson’s long-range potency will soon enter another stratosphere, but his 7.7 points and 2.9 rebounds per game admittedly pale in comparison. The key, aside from whether he adds more elements to his offensive repertoire, is how the Suns navigate their current logjam at the 3 with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mikal Bridges.

It’s not an issue now, since Oubre is having a career year and Bridges has proven capable of playing the 4 in small-ball lineups, but at some point, Johnson will either force the issue as he proves worthy of more minutes or top out as a sixth man and designated long-range gunner off the bench.

There are worse fates in the NBA, but unless Phoenix figures out this Oubre-Bridges-Johnson balance perfectly, there’s a fair chance missing on Clarke will sting for a long time. The Suns’ poor asset management in the 2019 offseason shouldn’t be overlooked, but the good news is, that “reach” for Cam Johnson is looking less like a catastrophic mistake and more like a classic case of simply overlooking the better prospect that several other teams missed on too.

“Underrated” is a subjective word that means totally different things depending on who you ask. For some, it describes someone who’s overlooked but deserves to be mentioned among the best. For others, it means someone who’s pretty good but only on the fringe of most people’s radars.

As the rookie who’s somehow better and more diverse than expected but more or less exactly who many thought he was, Cameron Johnson fits neither definition. He’s a good, not-so-young rookie who doesn’t often show up in these “underrated” discussions because he’s older and “just a shooter” and has less room to grow.

It’s easy to forget about guys like that, and that draft-day trade will never look good now that Saric is all but gone this summer and Bridges looks more than capable as a starting 4. Johnson’s shaky hips (he’s missed 11 games this season due to hip, calf and quad ailments) won’t do him any favors in this discussion either.

With that being said, he should probably start registering on more people’s radars as time goes on, especially if he builds on a few key areas of his game. Passing on Clarke is a sin that may never be absolved, but Cam Johnson may be the truest definition of “underrated.” He should be a solid player in his own right and a piece of the Suns’ emerging core — whether he ever exceeds his projected sixth man role or not.

“I’ve said it for a while, he’s not your normal first-year player,” Williams said. “He plays the game the right way. He doesn’t take bad shots. He continues to grow as a player. He’s not just a shooter; he’s a guy that slashes and can get to the free-throw line. We really like Cam a lot.”