Big 12 Bracketology: Who’s in, who’s out? – Oklahoma squarely on the bubble
Big 12 Bracketology update sees Kansas and Baylor in line for No. 1 seeds while Texas Tech and Oklahoma are hoping to get off the bubble.
The Big 12 is projected to get five teams in the NCAA Tournament with Oklahoma one of the last teams to make the field.
Kansas’ narrow win at Baylor on Saturday might be enough to earn the Jayhawks the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday. That doesn’t mean Baylor won’t get a No. 1 seed of their own. The Bears are still poised to finish the season as one of the favorites to win an NCAA Tournament title and give the Big 12 a pair of teams with No. 1 seeds.
West Virginia is the only other Big 12 team that should feel comfortable about their chances of earning a berth on Selection Sunday. Bob Huggins‘ team lost their fifth straight conference road game at TCU on Saturday, but they still sit at No. 17 in the NCAA NET ranking metric. That computer profile gives them a comfortable path to an at-large berth.
The two teams with work left to do to secure their bids are Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Last year’s national runners-up, the Red Raiders likely make the field if the Tournament started today, but they shouldn’t take any of their remaining games for granted. The challenging nature of their remaining schedule is going to test Chris Beard and his coaching staff.
Texas Tech finishes the Big 12 regular season slate by playing at Oklahoma, hosting Texas, traveling to Baylor and then welcoming Kansas to Lubbock in the finale. Going 2-2 in that stretch would go a long way toward cementing the Red Raiders’ place in the field of 68. Anything less will leave Beard’s team with work to do heading into the Big 12 Tournament. Texas Tech likely will be a quality at-large team at the moment capable of going on a run under the direction of head coach Chris Bears.
Oklahoma doesn’t have nearly that much in terms of quality on their resume. Tuesday night’s home game against Texas Tech could prove to be a make or break contest in regard to their NCAA Tournament hopes. It would be a stretch to call it a “must-win” but it’s a huge opportunity for the Sooners to bolster their resume and move away from the bubble.
The good news for Lon Kruger and his staff is the finish to their BIg 12 regular season is very manageable. After hosting Texas Tech, Oklahoma will travel to West Virginia in another big opportunity to score a quality win. Then, the Sooners host Texas before heading to TCU in the regular-season finale. If Oklahoma can win three of their last five games, they might not need more than one win in the Big 12 Tournament to feel safe on Selection Sunday.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Oklahoma as one of the last four teams in.
The most likely outcome for the Big 12 is Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech all make the field. Oklahoma will likely be the Big 12’s only high-profile bubble team on Selection Sunday on March 15.
The Sooners have several chances to score quality wins down the stretch, but the chances of them reeling off enough wins to move all the way off the bubble are pretty slim. Expect Kruger’s team to head to Kansas City with their postseason fate squarely in their hands. A few wins at the Sprint Center could be the difference between an NCAA Tournament berth and the NIT.
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