San Diego State and Dayton have a combined three losses with the NCAA Tournament in sight but can either truly be trusted when the lights are on in March?
With March Madness approaching and with millions of college basketball fans filling out brackets, one major question is looming: How for real are San Diego State and Dayton?
And more specifically, how much can the Aztecs and Flyers be trusted to hold up when the pressure of March starts beating down on them?
Entering the home stretch of the 2019-20 college basketball season, the San Diego State Aztecs, ranked No. 5 at 26-1 entering a Feb. 29 matchup against Nevada, and Dayton Flyers, ranked No. 4 at 25-2 entering a Feb. 28 date with Davidson, have established themselves as the two elite mid-majors this year.
They have gone from regular-season Cinderella to No. 1 or 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State is the No. 4 team and Dayton is No. 6 according to the KenPom rankings.
In the case of San Diego State, they just suffered their first loss of the season on Feb. 22, falling 66-63 at home to UNLV. Star Malachi Flynn and the Aztecs bounced back, however, on Feb. 25 with a six-point victory over Colorado State, also at home to stay on the one-line.
For Dayton, flashback to Dec. 22 when they dropped to 9-2 on the season when they lost on a buzzer-beater in overtime against Colorado. Since then, however, Player of the Year candidate Obi Toppin and Dayton have cruised through Atlantic 10 play with a 15-0 record ahead of Feb. 28’s game with Davidson, reeling off 16 straight victories overall.
Based on success so far in the regular season, you absolutely can trust these teams.
Racking up wins in the winter is one thing but March is a totally different beast.
A lack of overall dominance from both San Diego State and Dayton in mid-major conferences is somewhat concerning. To be sure, having one conference loss between the two is no easy feat, even in a mid-major league.
The rigors of conference play have taken a toll on both teams. A home loss to UNLV and then a six-point win over Colorado State at home for San Diego State reflects that.
Meanwhile, Dayton has played in a tougher league but has not looked all that dominant in the month of February coming down the home stretch. The Flyers have four wins by only single digits in the month alone, one of which came against UMass, who has just a 12-15 overall record on the season.
If you’re looking at the potential drawbacks though, note that both the Aztecs and Flyers have something crucial to success in March: star power.
Flynn, a junior guard, has led the charge all season for his team. The Tacoma, WA. native is averaging 16.9 points, 5.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game on the season while shooting 43.5 percent from the floor, all of which are career highs. On both ends of the floor, the Aztecs have fed off of Flynn and his remarkable consistency, having scored in double-digits in all but one game this season.
For as impressive as Flynn has been, Dayton’s Toppin might be the nation’s best player. The sophomore forward is averaging 19.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals per game while shooting 62.3 percent overall.
He’s been a do-it-all star, the type of player that can change a game in March.
So where does that leave us looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament and trusting San Diego State and/or Dayton in March? The Action Network has San Diego State at +2000 odds to win the national title, tied with Oregon and Michigan State for sixth-best. Dayton has +2400 odds, behind Kentucky and ahead of West Virginia for tenth-best.
Both teams are obviously top-class but it’s hard not to have more faith in Dayton than San Diego State because of Toppin.
While we’ve seen the tremendous play from Flynn and SDSU this season, they have played an extremely weak schedule and, while they’ve handled it in all but one contest, they’ve also been tested quite a bit along the way.
As for Toppin and the Flyers, their only two losses came against the current No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks and another top-25 team in Colorado and both games went to overtime.
Toppin has proven he can compete against the best in the country, as has the Dayton team around him. San Diego State can’t say the same.
In March, that type of proof breeds much more reason to trust a mid-major than anything else.
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